URL: /strategy/numbers · Id: `page:/strategy/numbers`

# The numbers

> What a customer may cost at your price, payback with your hours and churn counted, and when a test stops or scales.

What a customer may cost at your price, payback with your hours and churn counted, and when a test stops or scales.

- **Deepens:** [`metric:cac-payback`](https://startupbuilder.dev/agents/finance#cac-payback), [`metric:ltv`](https://startupbuilder.dev/agents/finance#ltv), [`metric:logo-churn`](https://startupbuilder.dev/agents/customer#logo-churn), [`noun:demand-budget`](https://startupbuilder.dev/business/nouns/demand-budget)
- **The rule:** [The lower of 12 months of margin after churn and a third of lifetime value](/strategy/numbers#price)
- **Churn and margin:** 5% a month and 80%
- **Your hour:** $100

## Every planning estimate says how it was set
A planning estimate is a number we set so the math can run before you have your own. Each one below names how it was set and the reading that replaces it. [Tables across this site](/strategy#ways) print the label once, in their footer, and link here.

Third-party figures are not planning estimates: each prints its sample and year, such as search ads at $5.26 a click (industry average, 16,000 advertisers, 2024 to 2025) or LinkedIn acceptance across 13.2 million requests.

| Estimate | Value | How it was set | Replaced by |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Gross margin | 80% | Hosting, support and payment fees at about a fifth of revenue for a small software product | Your Stripe revenue less those costs, monthly |
| Monthly logo churn, monthly plans | 5% | The middle of the 3% to 7% a month that small-business software loses; at 5%, 54% still pay after a year | Your own, read from 20 customers or 3 cancellations in 60 days |
| Annual-term non-renewal | About 17% a year (1.5% a month) | Deals over $5,000 a year sign 12-month terms, so no one leaves inside the payback year | Your first renewals |
| Your hour | $100 | What an hour of building is worth to a technical founder | Your own figure |
| Visit to signup, self-serve | 2% | Well under the 7.52% search-ad average, because nobody knows the product yet | Your rate at 500 visits |
| Signup to paid, self-serve | 15% | A free plan or a trial with no card, for a tool under $300 a year | Your rate at 30 signups |
| Visit to trial or demo, then paid | 2.5% × 20% | A small team trials or books a short demo, then buys at 20% to 25% | Your rates at 500 visits and 30 trials |
| Demo request, qualified, won | 1.0% × 50% × 25% | A company deal: half of requests qualify; founder-led selling to a tight customer wins 20% to 30% | Your rates at 10 calls |
| Founder hours a won company deal | 6 (4 to 8) | Discovery, demo, a mutual action plan and the paperwork | Your calendar |
| Cold email: positive share, booked, closed | 35%, 60%, 20% | About 1 in 3 replies says yes or tell me more; 60% of those book; a first call to a tight customer closes 1 in 5 | Your counts at 300 contacts and 10 calls |
| Your time a cold-email call | 1 hour | A 30-minute call, its brief and the follow-up with the payment link | Your calendar |
| Launch visits | 1,000 | A front-page Show HN or a top-10 Product Hunt day for a niche tool | Your launch-day sessions |

## One rule sets what a customer may cost
A customer may cost the lower of two numbers. The first is the margin it earns in its first 12 months after churn: `m × (1 − (1 − c)^12) ÷ c`, where m is monthly margin and c is monthly churn. The second is a third of its lifetime value: `m ÷ c ÷ 3`. Every table on this site reads this rule, and a loaded CAC (cash plus your hours at $100) is held to it.

At 5% churn a year earns 9.19 months of margin, not 12, and a third of lifetime value is 6.67 months. So the lifetime cap binds: a $49 product may spend $261 a customer, though $360 would pay back in a year. Over $5,000 a year the deal is a [12-month term](/revenue/offers), nobody leaves in year one, and the full 12 months of margin binds.

Cold email costs $71 cash and 8.5 of your hours a customer, $921 loaded. That clears the rule only from $173 a month. Below it, [Hands-on](/strategy/hands-on) buys learning, not revenue, until a rewritten offer lifts replies: at 6%, loaded CAC falls to $739. Paid search at the average click costs $1,753 self-serve and clears from $329 a month; at $299 it pays back in 8.9 months after churn, not the 7.3 months that leaving churn out suggests.

| Monthly price | Sells as | 12 months of margin after churn | A third of lifetime value | CAC you can afford | Break-even click |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| $19 | Self-serve | $140 | $101 | **$101**, the lifetime cap | $0.30 |
| $49 | Small team | $360 | $261 | **$261**, the lifetime cap | $1.31 |
| $149 | Small team | $1,096 | $795 | **$795**, the lifetime cap | $3.97 |
| $299 | Small team | $2,199 | $1,595 | **$1,595**, the lifetime cap | $7.97 |
| $1,000 | Company deal | $9,600 | $17,778 | **$9,600**, the year’s margin | $11.25 |

Planning estimate unless a source is named: [how each was set](/strategy/numbers#assumptions).

| Your price | Who buys | Lead with | Why | CAC you can afford | Break-even cost per click | Hands-on pays back |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Under $300 a year | One person, on a card | Launches, communities and search: [Launch and search](/strategy/launch-and-search) | Nobody takes a call about a $20 tool. | $101 at $19 | $0.30 at $19 | No at $19 |
| $300 to $5,000 a year | A small team | Outreach your agents draft, plus content: [Hands-on](/strategy/hands-on) | A call pays for itself, and content keeps working after it. | $261 at $49 · $795 at $149 · $1,595 at $299 | $1.31 at $49 · $3.97 at $149 · $7.97 at $299 | No at $49 · Once replies reach 6% at $149 · Yes at $299 |
| Over $5,000 a year | A company, through its budget owner | Outreach and warm intros: [Hands-on](/strategy/hands-on) | One customer pays for a month of your time. | $9,600 at $1,000 | $11.25 at $1,000 | Yes at $1,000 |
| Any price, with cash for one test | Anyone your ads can reach | Ads, with a stop rule: [Paid](/strategy/paid) | $300 to $500 tests the message before you scale. | Set by your price | Set by your price | Set by your price |

Computed by [one rule](/strategy/numbers#price): the lower of a customer's first 12 months of margin after churn and a third of its lifetime value, at 80% margin and 5% monthly churn, or a 12-month term over $5,000 a year. Each row's break-even click uses that row's share of visits that pay ([how each price converts](/strategy/numbers#break-even)). Hands-on is cold email at $921 a customer with your hours at $100. Planning estimate unless a source is named: [how each was set](/strategy/numbers#assumptions).

## Each price converts its own way, so each has its own break-even click
A click is worth buying only when the customer it brings pays the click back under the rule. The line is `max cost per click = (CAC you can afford − your hours a won deal × $100) × visit to paid`, and visit to paid depends on how the price sells.

- **Under $300 a year, self-serve:** visit to signup × signup to paid = 2.0% × 15% = 0.3%. At $19: $101 × 0.3% = **$0.30**.
- **$300 to $5,000 a year, [a small team](/strategy/hands-on):** visit to trial or demo × trial or demo to paid = 2.5% × 20% = 0.5% (0.4% to 0.8%). At $49: $261 × 0.5% = **$1.31**. At $299: $1,595 × 0.5% = **$7.97**.
- **Over $5,000 a year, [a company deal](/revenue/deals):** demo request × qualified × won = 1.0% × 50% × 25% = 0.125%, with 6 of your hours a won deal. At $1,000 a month: ($9,600 − $600) × 0.125% = **$11.25**, and $9.00 to $13.50 as the win rate runs 20% to 30%.

Search ads average $5.26 a click (industry average, 16,000 advertisers, 2024 to 2025). That buys a self-serve customer for $1,753, a small-team customer for $1,052 and a company deal for $4,208 plus your hours. So a $49 product earns its clicks through [Launch and search](/strategy/launch-and-search); a $299 product can buy them through [Paid](/strategy/paid) on terms under $7.97. [Keyword opportunity map](/capabilities/research-demand/keyword-opportunity-map) prices every term against this line before a dollar moves.

| How it sells | Visit to paid | Your hours a won deal | Break-even click | CAC at $5.26 a click |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Self-serve, under $300 a year | 0.3% | None. | $0.30 at $19 | $1,753 |
| Small team, $300 to $5,000 | 0.5% (0.4% to 0.8%) | None. | $1.31 at $49 · $3.97 at $149 · $7.97 at $299 | $1,052 |
| Company deal, over $5,000 | 0.125% | 4 to 8 | $11.25 at $1,000 | $4,208 plus 6 hours |

Planning estimate unless a source is named: [how each was set](/strategy/numbers#assumptions).

## Payback counts your hours and your churn
`payback months = the n where m × (1 − (1 − c)^n) ÷ c reaches the loaded CAC`; it never comes when the loaded CAC passes m ÷ c, a whole lifetime of margin.

Loaded CAC is cash plus your hours at $100. Hours that stay fixed as customers grow (a page a week) are spread over the customers a month at scale; hours that grow with customers (an hour a call) are counted per customer. [A launch](/plays/launch-sites) looks free in cash, but 6 hours a week for 2 customers a month is 13 hours, $1,301 a customer, close to [paid search](/plays/paid-search).

At $49 a month, 4 of the 11 ways clear the rule on loaded CAC: SEO and content, AI answers, Directories and backlinks and Referrals. The last column says the lowest price at which each one does.

| Way | Cash a customer | Your hours a customer | Loaded CAC | Payback at $49 | At $149 | At $299 | Clears the rule from |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [SEO and content](/plays/editorial-seo) | $10 | 0.7 | $82 | 2.2 months | 0.7 months | 0.3 months | $16 a month |
| [AI answers](/plays/aeo) | $20 | 0.7 | $92 | 2.4 months | 0.8 months | 0.4 months | $18 a month |
| [Directories and backlinks](/plays/directory-listings) | $10 | 2.2 | $227 | 6.7 months | 1.9 months | 0.9 months | $43 a month |
| [Launches](/plays/launch-sites) | $1 | 13 | $1,301 | never | 15 months | 6.2 months | $244 a month |
| [Cold email](/plays/cold-email) | $71 | 8.5 | $921 | never | 9.5 months | 4.2 months | $173 a month |
| [LinkedIn outbound](/plays/linkedin-outbound) | $40 | 8.6 | $900 | never | 9.2 months | 4.1 months | $169 a month |
| [Communities](/plays/community-answers) | $6 | 3.3 | $331 | 11 months | 2.9 months | 1.4 months | $63 a month |
| [Partnerships and marketplaces](/plays/marketplace-listings) | $300 | 1.9 | $490 | 19 months | 4.5 months | 2.1 months | $92 a month |
| [Paid search](/plays/paid-search) | $1,750 | 0.2 | $1,772 | never | 26 months | 9.0 months | $333 a month |
| [Paid social](/plays/paid-social) | $1,300 | 0.4 | $1,343 | never | 16 months | 6.4 months | $252 a month |
| [Referrals](/plays/customer-referrals) | $5 | 2.2 | $222 | 6.5 months | 1.9 months | 0.9 months | $42 a month |

Planning estimate unless a source is named: [how each was set](/strategy/numbers#assumptions).

## At scale, each way runs into its own ceiling
A way that works at 400 contacts or 1,000 visits stops growing somewhere. The table says how many customers a month each way brings at scale, what that takes, and what caps it.

Pick the corner whose month-one cash plus hours fit inside what you can spend before month 6, then [plan the second way](/strategy#seed-then-compound) before the first one hits its ceiling.

| Way | Customers a month | What it takes | The ceiling |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [SEO and content](/plays/editorial-seo) | 6 | About 12,000 searches a month ranked in the top 5: 40 terms and about 50 referring domains | The search volume of terms at or under your difficulty ceiling |
| [AI answers](/plays/aeo) | 3 | Named in answers to 20 or more buyer questions, checked weekly | How often your buyers ask an assistant instead of searching |
| [Directories and backlinks](/plays/directory-listings) | 2 | 30 live listings and 10 followed links | The visits each listing sends: 0 to 20 a month |
| [Launches](/plays/launch-sites) | 2 | One launch a quarter at about 1,000 visits, each on a real release | One launch per site per release |
| [Cold email](/plays/cold-email) | 3 | 1,200 contacts a month on 6 inboxes and 3 domains, with replies at 6% once the offer is rewritten from calls | Your market: 4,180 accounts last about 3.5 months at 1,200 a month |
| [LinkedIn outbound](/plays/linkedin-outbound) | 0.5 | 400 invites a month from one founder seat, post engagers first | About 100 invitations a week per seat |
| [Communities](/plays/community-answers) | 2 | 10 answers a week in 3 to 5 communities, at most 1 in 4 naming the product | How many threads ask about the problem each week |
| [Partnerships and marketplaces](/plays/marketplace-listings) | 5 | One store category with about 2,400 views a month and 10 or more reviews | The category’s views; a second store adds its own |
| [Paid search](/plays/paid-search) | 10 | About $17,500 a month of spend at the average click | Exact-match search volume for your buying terms |
| [Paid social](/plays/paid-social) | 10 | About $13,000 a month of spend once an ad set optimizes for signups | Audience size, and creative that tires: new ads every 2 to 4 weeks |
| [Referrals](/plays/customer-referrals) | 1 | 50 or more active customers, each asked at their first result | Your customer count: about 2 a quarter for every 50 |

Planning estimate unless a source is named: [how each was set](/strategy/numbers#assumptions).

## One rule stops, reads and scales a paid test
- **Stop at 300 clicks with zero signups.** By the rule of three, zero in 300 means the rate is likely under 3 ÷ 300 = 1%, the visit-to-signup line. A true 1% gives zero that often only 0.049 of the time.
- **Read at 500 clicks,** as an interval: stop when CAC at the optimistic bound fails the rule, hold and rewrite when only the pessimistic bound fails.
- **Scale only on paid customers you have seen:** 30 or more signups and at least 3 of them paid, or one full trial cycle read. Until then spend holds at the test tier, however good the signup rate looks.

[Paid](/strategy/paid), [Message test](/capabilities/run-ads/message-test) and [Weekly readout](/capabilities/measure/weekly-readout) apply this rule as written; the agent sets spend to zero at the stop line without waiting for you.

## Read a rate only once you have enough of it
A rate from a small sample is a range, not a number. 10 signups from 500 clicks reads 2%, and the 95% interval runs 1.1% to 3.6%: a 3.3 times spread in CAC. So [the test rule](/strategy/numbers#test-rule) stops on the optimistic bound and scales on the pessimistic one.

Comparing two headlines on clicks at a 1% click rate takes about 7,700 impressions each to see a 50% lift. A 30% lift takes about 19,800. Two pages at 2% against 3% signup need about 3,800 visits each, which no founder buys on search. Test the message on clicks with [Message test](/capabilities/run-ads/message-test), and read signups pooled.

An answer share of 10% read from 200 answers moves ±4.2 points by chance. [AI answer audit](/capabilities/check-ai-answers/ai-answer-audit) runs each question 3 times and flags only moves of 5 points or more. [Cold email](/plays/cold-email) is judged at 300 contacts: 1% of 300 is 3 positive replies, enough to tell 1 per 100 from 4.

| Reading | Rule | Why |
| --- | --- | --- |
| A conversion rate from N visits | Read the interval: 10 of 500 is 1.1% to 3.6% | The 95% Wilson interval |
| Zero conversions | Zero in N means under 3 ÷ N; zero at 300 clicks means under 1% | A 0.049 chance of stopping a true 1% |
| Two headlines on clicks | About 7,700 impressions each for a 50% lift at a 1% click rate | 80% power, 5% two-sided |
| Two pages on signups | About 3,800 visits each at 2% against 3% | Test on clicks; read signups pooled |
| AI answer share | ±4.2 points at 10% of 200 answers | Flag moves of 5 points or more |
| Cold positive replies | Judge at 300 contacts, not sends | 3 positive replies tell 1 per 100 from 4 |

## Churn compounds, so it caps what a customer may cost
Monthly logo churn c leaves (1 − c)^12 of your customers after a year. At 5% a month you keep 54%. At 3% you keep 69%. At 10% you keep 28%, which no acquisition rescues.

Lifetime value is about monthly margin ÷ monthly churn. A $49 product at 5% churn is worth $784; a third of that, $261, is the most it may cost. At 3% churn the cap rises to $436 and the year's margin, $400, binds instead.

That is why [Keep and grow](/strategy/keep-and-grow) starts once the first 10 pay, and why [Silence watch](/capabilities/keep-and-grow/silence-watch) scores every customer daily.

| Monthly churn | Kept after a year | 12 months of margin at $49 | Value of a $49 customer | CAC cap at 3:1 |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 3% | 69% | $400 | $1,307 | $436 |
| 5% | 54% | $360 | $784 | $261 |
| 10% | 28% | $281 | $392 | $131 |

## Price your own hours, or the cheap ways look free
An hour of yours is $100 here. Replace it with what an hour of building is worth to you.

Priced, a [cold-email](/plays/cold-email) customer costs $71 cash and 8.5 hours: $921. Its month is 400 contacts, 2.9 calls and 0.6 customers, so the calls are most of the hours. At a 10% close rate it takes about 1,400 contacts a customer and the loaded CAC doubles to $1,843.

A launch week of 15 to 20 hours, about 26 across the month, that brings 2 customers costs about $1,300 each in hours. Neither is free; each is cheap in cash. Your agents take the list building, the drafting and the reading; your hours go to calls, thread answers and launch day. [Weekly readout](/capabilities/measure/weekly-readout) prints your minutes beside each Play, and the [demand budget](/strategy#demand-budget) holds the hours you said you can spare.

Planning estimate unless a source is named: [how each was set](/strategy/numbers#assumptions).