Annual prepay

npx startup-builder add play annual-prepay   # 1 · writes plays/annual-prepay.mdx (Not live yet, gaps #5)

# 2 · dry run; below, its 422 on 2026-08-24
curl -X POST "https://api.sb/leaseline.app/campaigns?mode=try" \
  -H "Authorization: Bearer $STARTUP_BUILDER_API_KEY" \
  -H "Content-Type: application/json" \
  -d '{"play":"annual-prepay"}'

# 3 · keep it, at You approve each one
curl -X POST https://api.sb/leaseline.app/campaigns \
  -H "Authorization: Bearer $STARTUP_BUILDER_API_KEY" \
  -H "Content-Type: application/json" \
  -d '{"play":"annual-prepay"}'

# on
curl -X PATCH https://api.sb/leaseline.app/campaigns/annual-prepay \
  -H "Authorization: Bearer $STARTUP_BUILDER_API_KEY" \
  -H "Content-Type: application/json" \
  -d '{"endsAt":null}'

# off: no offer sends; annual terms and renewal notices keep running
curl -X PATCH https://api.sb/leaseline.app/campaigns/annual-prepay \
  -H "Authorization: Bearer $STARTUP_BUILDER_API_KEY" \
  -H "Content-Type: application/json" \
  -d '{"endsAt":"now"}'

{
  "$id": "https://api.sb/leaseline.app/events/event_1418",
  "$type": "Event",
  "name": "Subscription.renewed",
  "at": "2026-10-19T00:04:51Z",
  "seq": 1418,
  "data": {
    "subscription": {
      "$id": "https://api.sb/leaseline.app/subscriptions/subscription_14",
      "customer": "customer_14",
      "offer": "pro",
      "interval": "month",
      "renewals": 4,
      "price": 29
    },
    "units": {
      "min": 31,
      "max": 34
    }
  }
}

npx startup-builder trigger Subscription.renewed --like event_1418   # replays the 4th renewal
npx startup-builder clock advance --by 7d   # then runs the offer’s one reminder on the billing page
npx startup-builder listen Subscription.renewed --forward-to http://localhost:3000/hook

You hold the CSM Key Result: 10 Customers on the year by 2026-12-31, with none lost to the discount. ← worker, metric
On each 3rd renewal, Quote request or annual cancel, choose one option and say why. ← triggers, chooses
Show the annual total first, then the monthly equivalent and the dollars saved.  ← copyRules 1
The discount never passes 17 %, and never goes to anyone leaving.                ← your file, line 2; copyRules 9
A cancel runs at once; a save offer sits beside it, never before it.             ← exit-never-waits

[
  {
    "$id": "https://api.sb/leaseline.app/tasks/task_281",
    "$type": "Task",
    "assignee": "worker_3",
    "due": "2026-10-10T17:00:00Z",
    "on": "customer_22",
    "brief": {
      "who": "Wrenfield Rentals, on Team monthly",
      "said": "Can we add 2 owners next month?",
      "chose": "offer-on-the-quote",
      "why": "a Quote is the AE’s",
      "lines": [
        "Team monthly, $79",
        "Team annual, $790: 2 months free"
      ],
      "never": [
        "a discount over 17 %",
        "terms the Offer lacks"
      ]
    }
  },
  {
    "$id": "https://api.sb/leaseline.app/tasks/task_286",
    "$type": "Task",
    "assignee": "worker_1",
    "due": "2026-10-14T15:00:00Z",
    "on": "customer_9",
    "brief": {
      "who": "Juniper Homes, on the year",
      "said": "We only lease in spring; turning off renewal.",
      "chose": "book-a-call",
      "why": "their reason was a feature question",
      "cancel": "ran at once on 2026-10-13; the term ends 2027-04-30"
    }
  },
  {
    "$id": "https://api.sb/leaseline.app/tasks/task_288",
    "$type": "Task",
    "assignee": "worker_1",
    "due": "2026-10-16T17:00:00Z",
    "on": "customer_19",
    "brief": {
      "who": "Harbor Row",
      "chose": "not-now",
      "why": "at risk since Oct 2: 3 support threads on late notices",
      "held": "keep-first"
    }
  },
  {
    "$id": "https://api.sb/leaseline.app/approvals/approval_77",
    "$type": "Approval",
    "verdict": null,
    "deadline": "2026-10-20T17:00:00Z",
    "draft": "Hi Ana, you’ve renewed Pro 4 times. The year is $290, which works out to $24.17 a month: $58 less than paying monthly…",
    "route": "offer-the-year",
    "checks": [
      {
        "check": "price",
        "status": "pass"
      },
      {
        "check": "keep-first",
        "status": "pass"
      }
    ]
  }
]

[
  {
    "reason": {
      "limit": "misquote",
      "observed": "the note said $24 a month; the year is $24.17 a month",
      "bound": "0 differences",
      "window": "1 note"
    },
    "doc": "/plays/annual-prepay#stop-misquote",
    "note": "caught at approval, never sent"
  }
]

{
  "$id": "https://api.sb/leaseline.app/campaigns/annual-prepay",
  "$type": "Campaign",
  "play": "play:annual-prepay@1",
  "path": [
    "prepay-retention-lift",
    "churned-arr",
    "net-new-arr",
    "arr"
  ],
  "experiment": {
    "metric": "prepay-retention-lift",
    "unit": "percent",
    "heldBack": 6,
    "decision": null
  },
  "readout": {
    "value": null,
    "n": 0,
    "maturing": 24,
    "interval": null,
    "readability": "inadmissible",
    "basis": "held-back",
    "pooled": false
  },
  "ledger": {
    "spend": 406,
    "workerCost": 1,
    "hours": 1.2,
    "wonArr": 0,
    "projectedArr": 88,
    "paybackDays": null
  }
}

- Before you go, can you tell us why you’re cancelling? Choose a reason to continue.
+ Your renewal is off, and your term runs to 2027-03-31. If you want it back, one press turns renewal on again.

---
discount: 0.17    # at most 2 months free
holdout: 0.25     # 1 in 4 eligible Customers is held back, chosen at random
---
Offer the year after the 3rd renewal, to Customers whose units stay steady.
Never offer it to anyone leaving; offer one save beside the cancel.

$ npx startup-builder show plays/annual-prepay
discount 0.17 · holdout 0.25 · the 3-renewal line · the save rule    your file  plays/annual-prepay.mdx:2,3,5,6 (Ask 2026-08-24)
family retention · worker role:success-manager, owns never · chooses 9 (3 rule, 6 read; 4 at stakes high) · sequences prepay-offer-note, prepay-renewal-notice · approval every-send · checks owned-by-a-person, keep-first, customer-ask-cap, exit-never-waits, price, renewal-notice, reconcile · stops 9    catalog  play:annual-prepay@1 (the save Decision, gaps #9)