Product-led growth

# Not live yet (gaps #2)
curl -X POST "https://api.sb/leaseline.app/campaigns?mode=try" \
  -H "Authorization: Bearer $STARTUP_BUILDER_API_KEY" \
  -H "Content-Type: application/json" \
  -d '{"play":"product-led"}'

 1import { $ } from 'startup-builder'
 2
 3return await $.Campaign.create({ play: 'product-led' }, { mode: 'try' })   // dry run on the day-0 Startup, 2026-08-24 · Not live yet, gaps #2

npx startup-builder do Campaign.create --json '{"play":"product-led"}' --try   # Not live yet (gaps #2)

{
  "name": "do",
  "arguments": {
    "code": "return await $.Campaign.create({ play: 'product-led' }, { mode: 'try' })   // dry run on the day-0 Startup, 2026-08-24 · Not live yet, gaps #2",
    "mode": "try"
  }
}

 1{
 2  "type": "https://startupbuilder.dev/errors/refused",
 3  "title": "Refused",
 4  "status": 422,
 5  "detail": "product-led can’t start yet: 1 check fails and 1 warns.",
 6  "checks": [
 7    {
 8      "check": "use-when",
 9      "status": "pass",
10      "observed": "99 free signups in 30 days",
11      "doc": "/plays/product-led#check-use-when",
12      "fix": "Keep 20 or more free signups a month, or run signup-interviews.",
13      "then": "Metric.query"
14    },
15  …

curl "https://api.sb/leaseline.app/events?where=name%20in%20(%22Entitlement.checked%22%2C%20%22Event.captured%22%2C%20%22Customer.activated%22%2C%20%22Offer.subscribed%22%2C%20%22Subscription.ended%22%2C%20%22Version.deployed%22%2C%20%22Metric.watched%22)&limit=1" \
  -H "Authorization: Bearer $STARTUP_BUILDER_API_KEY"

# Not live yet (gaps #7)
curl -X POST "https://api.sb/leaseline.app/triggers/fire?mode=try" \
  -H "Authorization: Bearer $STARTUP_BUILDER_API_KEY" \
  -H "Content-Type: application/json" \
  -d '{"like":"event_1310"}'

# Not live yet (gaps #7)
curl "https://api.sb/leaseline.app/decisions?where=on%20%3D%20%22customer_44%22" \
  -H "Authorization: Bearer $STARTUP_BUILDER_API_KEY"

# Not live yet (gaps #7)
curl "https://api.sb/leaseline.app/actions?where=on%20%3D%20%22customer_44%22" \
  -H "Authorization: Bearer $STARTUP_BUILDER_API_KEY"

 1import { $ } from 'startup-builder'
 2
 3const { events: [last] } = await $.Event.list({ where: 'name in ("Entitlement.checked", "Event.captured", "Customer.activated", "Offer.subscribed", "Subscription.ended", "Version.deployed", "Metric.watched")', limit: 1 })   // { play } compiled to this Play’s Trigger Events
 4const { subject } = await $.Trigger.fire({ like: last.$id }, { mode: 'try' })   // the same Event again, in try mode · Not live yet, gaps #7
 5const { decisions: [decision] } = await $.Decision.list({ where: `on = "${subject}"` })   // what it chose, and why · Not live yet, gaps #7
 6const { actions } = await $.Action.list({ where: `on = "${subject}"` })   // what it did, with its checks · Not live yet, gaps #7
 7return { decision, actions }

npx startup-builder do Event.list --json '{"where":"name in (\"Entitlement.checked\", \"Event.captured\", \"Customer.activated\", \"Offer.subscribed\", \"Subscription.ended\", \"Version.deployed\", \"Metric.watched\")","limit":1}'
npx startup-builder do Trigger.fire --json '{"like":"event_1310"}' --try   # Not live yet (gaps #7)
npx startup-builder do Decision.list --json '{"where":"on = \"customer_44\""}'   # Not live yet (gaps #7)
npx startup-builder do Action.list --json '{"where":"on = \"customer_44\""}'   # Not live yet (gaps #7)

{
  "name": "do",
  "arguments": {
    "code": "const { events: [last] } = await $.Event.list({ where: 'name in (\"Entitlement.checked\", \"Event.captured\", \"Customer.activated\", \"Offer.subscribed\", \"Subscription.ended\", \"Version.deployed\", \"Metric.watched\")', limit: 1 })   // { play } compiled to this Play’s Trigger Events\nconst { subject } = await $.Trigger.fire({ like: last.$id }, { mode: 'try' })   // the same Event again, in try mode · Not live yet, gaps #7\nconst { decisions: [decision] } = await $.Decision.list({ where: `on = \"${subject}\"` })   // what it chose, and why · Not live yet, gaps #7\nconst { actions } = await $.Action.list({ where: `on = \"${subject}\"` })   // what it did, with its checks · Not live yet, gaps #7\nreturn { decision, actions }",
    "mode": "try"
  }
}

 1{
 2  "decision": {
 3    "$id": "https://api.sb/leaseline.app/decisions/decision_361",
 4    "$type": "Decision",
 5    "choice": "prompt-at-bound",
 6    "reason": "the 10th lease read this month was refused, inside the renewal notice they were drafting, and Pro grants 200",
 7    "stakes": "low",
 8    "options": [
 9      "prompt-at-bound",
10      "offer-paid-trial",
11      "upsell-month-one",
12      "win-back",
13      "to-the-ae",
14      "not-now"
15  …

action_2 puts Oakfield in the agent half; the prompt shows inside the notice they were drafting. action_3 is the bound follow-up’s day-1 email, which ends when they upgrade or the grant resets.

≈ +$1,500 ARR a month at 99

Worth

35 min week 1, then 10 a week

Your time

$0.21 per free signup, ~$21 a month at 99

Spend

Day 3: first upgrade paid

First signal

20+ free signups a month, a metered Limit

Use it when

Under 20: signup-interviews · no metered Limit: add one (Offer.publish)

Not yet when

Worth’s formula: about +18.3 activated per 100 × 99 free signups a month × 0.24 activated to paid (your last 90 days) × $347 Pro ARR ≈ +$1,509. Under First signal: About 6 weeks to tell a +14 lift at 99 a month (4 to read, 2 to mature); at 20 a month, 90 days can tell only +31 or more, so your file starts at holdout: 0.

Start it this weekCopy Anchor Link

npx startup-builder add play product-led   # 1 · writes plays/product-led.mdx (Not live yet, gaps #5)

# 2 · dry run; below, its 422 on 2026-08-24
curl -X POST "https://api.sb/leaseline.app/campaigns?mode=try" \
  -H "Authorization: Bearer $STARTUP_BUILDER_API_KEY" \
  -H "Content-Type: application/json" \
  -d '{"play":"product-led"}'

# 3 · keep it, at You approve the first wave
curl -X POST https://api.sb/leaseline.app/campaigns \
  -H "Authorization: Bearer $STARTUP_BUILDER_API_KEY" \
  -H "Content-Type: application/json" \
  -d '{"play":"product-led"}'

# on
curl -X PATCH https://api.sb/leaseline.app/campaigns/product-led \
  -H "Authorization: Bearer $STARTUP_BUILDER_API_KEY" \
  -H "Content-Type: application/json" \
  -d '{"endsAt":null}'

# off: no prompt or email sends; free grants and the cancel button stay
curl -X PATCH https://api.sb/leaseline.app/campaigns/product-led \
  -H "Authorization: Bearer $STARTUP_BUILDER_API_KEY" \
  -H "Content-Type: application/json" \
  -d '{"endsAt":"now"}'

{
  "type": "https://startupbuilder.dev/errors/refused",
  "title": "Refused",
  "status": 422,
  "detail": "product-led can’t start yet: 1 check fails and 1 warns.",
  "checks": [
    {
      "check": "use-when",
      "status": "pass",
      "observed": "99 free signups in 30 days",
      "doc": "/plays/product-led#check-use-when",
      "fix": "Keep 20 or more free signups a month, or run signup-interviews.",
      "then": "Metric.query"
    },
    {
      "check": "limit-on-offer",
      "status": "fail",
      "observed": "Leaseline Free: 5 units, lease reads unmetered",
      "doc": "/plays/product-led#check-limit-on-offer",
      "fix": "Add a 10-read monthly Limit to Leaseline Free, then publish it.",
      "then": "Offer.publish"
    },
    {
      "check": "billing-connected",
      "status": "pass",
      "observed": "Stripe, connected 2026-08-24",
      "doc": "/plays/product-led#check-billing-connected",
      "fix": "Connect Stripe so every grant, charge and Meter reading is live.",
      "then": "Integration.connect"
    },
    {
      "check": "baseline",
      "status": "pass",
      "observed": "31.7 activated per 100 free signups, n 212 in 90 days",
      "doc": "/plays/product-led#check-baseline",
      "fix": "Read it once; it fills Before in Your number.",
      "then": "Metric.query"
    },
    {
      "check": "role-unstaffed",
      "status": "warn",
      "roles": [
        "success-manager"
      ],
      "owned": 2,
      "doc": "/plays/product-led#check-role-unstaffed",
      "fix": "Staff the CSM, or leave it: CSM routes come to you, and Priya’s 2 get drafts.",
      "then": "Role.staff"
    }
  ]
}

Each lease read on a free grant costs $0.03 from the free Offer pool, booked as marketing spend; each prompt email costs $0.04 from your Domain (Worker cost); POST /{namespace}/entitlements/check costs nothing. That comes to about $21 a month at 99 free signups, inside the $50 pool, and $4 at 20.

When it startsCopy Anchor Link

{
  "$id": "https://api.sb/leaseline.app/events/event_1310",
  "$type": "Event",
  "name": "Entitlement.checked",
  "at": "2026-10-19T10:12:40Z",
  "seq": 1310,
  "data": {
    "customer": "customer_44",
    "offer": "leaseline-free",
    "limit": "lease-reads",
    "used": 10,
    "bound": 10,
    "allowed": false,
    "resets": "2026-11-01"
  }
}

npx startup-builder trigger Entitlement.checked --like event_1310   # replays the delivery
npx startup-builder clock advance --by 1d   # runs the bound follow-up’s day-1 email (action_3)
npx startup-builder listen Entitlement.checked --forward-to http://localhost:3000/hook

Who runs itCopy Anchor Link

CSM · your agent (role:success-manager, worker_5) holds the Key Result. It hands to AE · Priya Shah (person) (role:sales-lead, worker_3) for free accounts over 150 units and any ask for terms, and to you (Dana Okafor, person, worker_1) for the rest, because no person holds the CSM seat. Your number links to Did it work.

What it reads · What it may call. It reads the account’s own Events, the Entitlement and the live Price; a predictor score or a matched company never appears in what it writes. The cancel is one press and never waits on the agent (exit-never-waits). Its tools are POST /{namespace}/entitlements/check, POST /{namespace}/offers/{offer}/trial, POST /{namespace}/offers/{offer}/subscribe, POST /{namespace}/conversations/{conversation}/escalate, POST /{namespace}/tasks/{task}/assign, and any other call becomes an Approval under the Role’s Mandate.

You hold the CSM Key Result: 55 activated per 100 free signups by 2026-12-31.    ← worker, metric
On each Trigger, choose one option and say why; a held account gets Not now.     ← triggers, chooses, keep-first
Free grant: 10 lease reads a month, twice what activation takes.                 ← your file, line 4
A prompt states the units left, the reset time and Pro’s price from the Pricing Page. ← copyRules 1
Never a countdown, a discount or a win-back offer below list.                    ← copyRules 4, 8
Never write to an account a person owns: draft it into their queue.              ← worker.owns, owned-by-a-person

The slow loop, as a Change. decision_142 (2026-09-07, weekly) read that activation took a median of 5 lease reads and that 31 of 40 free accounts hit the old 6-read cap before their second notice, so change_19 raised the grant to 10 (your file, line 4) and Dana merged it with POST /{namespace}/changes/{change}/merge. Replayed on past signups, POST /{namespace}/changes/{change}/review put the agent half at 48.1 per 100; read back at +30d it is 50.0, n 82, ■■□□ Early sign (Example, day 44).

Bring your own agent (folded) starts at It does it, you can stop it when it matches or beats the seated agent on the eval suite, and at You approve the first wave when it does not; POST /{namespace}/roles/{role}/staff seats it.

npx startup-builder eval --scenario product-led-184 --agent "claude -p" --seat success-manager   # seated: 50.0 per 100, 0 Checks failed sent, $0.21 a signup · yours: 47.6, 1 failed, $0.26 → You approve the first wave

What it can do nextCopy Anchor Link

When it hands to youCopy Anchor Link

To the AE goes to AE · Priya Shah (person); Not now and every approval come to you, the CSM seat. One Brief per Role, as captured (brief is Not live yet, gaps #7).

[
  {
    "$id": "https://api.sb/leaseline.app/tasks/task_441",
    "$type": "Task",
    "assignee": "worker_3",
    "due": "2026-10-07T16:20:00Z",
    "on": "customer_58",
    "brief": {
      "who": "Northgate Residential, free account",
      "said": "We have 220 units. Is there an annual contract?",
      "chose": "to-the-ae",
      "why": "over 150 units; terms are the AE’s",
      "never": [
        "a discount",
        "a deadline that isn’t real"
      ]
    }
  },
  {
    "$id": "https://api.sb/leaseline.app/tasks/task_418",
    "$type": "Task",
    "assignee": "worker_1",
    "due": "2026-09-30T17:00:00Z",
    "on": "customer_51",
    "brief": {
      "who": "Willow Park, Pro since Sep 21",
      "chose": "not-now",
      "why": "2 support threads on failed imports this week",
      "held": "keep-first"
    }
  },
  {
    "$id": "https://api.sb/leaseline.app/approvals/approval_52",
    "$type": "Approval",
    "verdict": null,
    "deadline": "2026-08-28T15:00:00Z",
    "draft": "You’ve sent 14 notices this week. Pro gives you 200 lease reads a month for $29…",
    "route": "offer-paid-trial",
    "checks": [
      {
        "check": "price",
        "status": "pass"
      },
      {
        "check": "keep-first",
        "status": "pass"
      }
    ]
  }
]

The receiver answers with POST /{namespace}/tasks/{task}/claim (Take this one), POST /{namespace}/tasks/{task}/return with a reason, POST /{namespace}/actions/{action}/redirect, POST /{namespace}/approvals/{approval}/approve or POST /{namespace}/approvals/{approval}/refuse, each a one-call window. Once a person claims, the agent’s pending asks to that account cancel with claimedByPerson (Not live yet, gaps #7), and every reply goes to the claimer. A Task nobody claims by its due time goes up a Role through POST /{namespace}/tasks/{task}/escalate, and person-promise fires.

On time: AE · Priya Shah, 1 of 1 within 1 business day, n 1; you, 3 of 3, median 2 h, n 3, ■□□□ Too early to tell beside Other Startups’ 92 % on time. Your queue: in week 1, 20 approvals and 1 weekly review; after the promotion on day 9, 1 weekly review and about 1 hand-off a week.

The fixed line: POST /{namespace}/deals/{deal}/assign sets owner to the receiving person, the agent is never a Deal’s owner, and Meetings land on the owner’s calendar under the owner’s name.

When it won’t sendCopy Anchor Link

The captured refusal, then the Stop that fired as a Campaign.paused reason (Not live yet, gaps #2); the rewrite that sent is the Juniper Homes thread in Example.

{
  "type": "https://startupbuilder.dev/errors/refused",
  "title": "Refused",
  "status": 422,
  "detail": "The upsell to Juniper Homes did not send: it quotes Team at $59, and the Pricing Page says $79.",
  "checks": [
    {
      "check": "price",
      "status": "fail",
      "doc": "/plays/product-led#check-price",
      "fix": "Quote the Pricing Page’s live Price, or send the ask to the AE.",
      "then": "Approval.approve"
    },
    {
      "check": "keep-first",
      "status": "pass"
    }
  ]
}

[
  {
    "reason": {
      "limit": "pool",
      "observed": "$50.00",
      "bound": "$50",
      "window": "2026-09"
    },
    "doc": "/plays/product-led#stop-pool",
    "task": "task_430"
  }
]

Did it workCopy Anchor Link

Both halves are read from the same random assignment at signup (rules m–o), and each figure’s call is POST /{namespace}/metrics/query by node and by arm; every node above the leaf is Not live yet (gaps #4).

{
  "$id": "decisions/decision_361",
  "$type": "Decision",
  "choice": "prompt-at-bound",
  "reason": "the 10th lease read this month was refused, inside the renewal notice they were drafting, and Pro grants 200",
  "stakes": "low",
  "options": [
    "prompt-at-bound",
    "offer-paid-trial",
    "upsell-month-one",
    "win-back",
    "to-the-ae",
    "not-now"
  ],
  "by": "worker_5",
  "on": "customer_44",
  "expected": "Offer.subscribed on Pro within 14d",
  "reopensWhen": "no Offer.subscribed for customer_44 within 14d"
}

The leaf counts free signups who sent 2 notices within 14 days per 100 assigned once quarantine has run (rule m), to 150 matured in each half; at 82 and 82 so far the Experiment runs on.

How it moves it: the agent half got a metered grant sized to activation (6 reads, then 10 from day 14) and met the upgrade inside the task at a median of day 6; your half kept today’s free plan and its plain upgrade page.

Guardrails: treated against held back: paid per activated account, 0.27 against 0.19 (new-paying-customers over activation-rate), and refunds in 30 days, 1 of 11 against 0 of 5.

{
  "$id": "https://api.sb/leaseline.app/campaigns/product-led",
  "$type": "Campaign",
  "play": "play:product-led@1",
  "path": [
    "activation-rate",
    "new-paying-customers",
    "new-arr",
    "net-new-arr",
    "arr"
  ],
  "experiment": {
    "metric": "activation-rate",
    "unit": "per-100",
    "heldBack": 92,
    "decision": null
  },
  "readout": {
    "value": 18.3,
    "n": 164,
    "maturing": 20,
    "interval": [
      3.5,
      33.1
    ],
    "readability": "C",
    "basis": "held-back",
    "pooled": false
  },
  "ledger": {
    "spend": 38,
    "workerCost": 6,
    "hours": 1.6,
    "pipelineArr": 2400,
    "wonArr": 3817,
    "projectedArr": 1509,
    "paybackDays": 4
  }
}

Outside benchmark: 0.75 % to 0.83 % of Subscriptions upgrade in their first month (a subscription-analytics vendor’s purchase data, 2026-09-30).

Before it · After it. Before it: programmatic-seo, editorial-seo and free-tools bring the free signups. After it: usage-upsell hears Pro accounts that pace past 50 units, and run-beside holds a new paying Customer’s first 30 days; keep-first holds an account at risk.

ExampleCopy Anchor Link

Leaseline ran it from 2026-08-24 to 2026-10-19 (56 days). 196 free accounts signed up, 12 were quarantined by the abuse Check, and 184 were assigned at random, 92 to each half; 164 have matured for activation and 128 for paid. Read every captured thread at ?threads=all; three follow the tables.

Oakfield Lettings, in Leaseline, Oct 19 10:12 · the 10th lease read refused, inside the renewal notice they were drafting.

The prompt, in the task · You’ve used 10 of 10 lease reads this month; they reset Nov 1.¹ Pro is $29 a month for 50 units and 200 reads.² Upgrade and this notice finishes now; switching back sits on your billing page.³

Oakfield, 10:14 · pressed Upgrade to Pro. Offer.subscribed, +$347 ARR.

- Upgrade to Team before Friday and it’s $59 a month.
+ Team is $79 a month and adds the owner report; today’s charge is $41.20, and switching back sits on the same page.

Northgate Residential, 2026-10-06 16:20 · “We have 220 units. Is there an annual contract?” · Leaseline, 16:21 · *Thanks. Priya, your account lead, replies by tomorrow 16:20 with the annual plan.*⁴ The Brief went to Priya (task_441).

¹ The true units left and the reset time, from the Entitlement. ² The next Offer’s Price, from the Pricing Page. ³ The switch down, one press away. ⁴ The routed line, compiled from the Role’s Settings.

Your settingsCopy Anchor Link

---
holdout: 0.5      # half the free signups get today’s free plan and upgrade page
---
Give free accounts 10 lease reads a month, 2 a day: twice what activation takes.
In the first 30 paid days, offer Team when a second member is refused the owner report.
Over 150 units, bring in our AE.

$ npx startup-builder show plays/product-led
holdout 0.5 · grant 10 reads · Team on a refused member · AE over 150 units     your file  plays/product-led.mdx:2,4,5,6 (Ask 2026-08-24; line 4 by change_19, 2026-09-07)
worker role:success-manager, owns never · chooses 6 (3 rule, 3 read) · sequences bound-follow-up, trial-to-paid, first-30-upsell, win-back-1-30-60 · approval first-send · checks owned-by-a-person, keep-first, customer-ask-cap, price, exit-never-waits, abuse · stops 8 (5 on in-product and email) · placements gmail, outlook, yahoo-mail, app-store, google-play, chrome-web-store, github, google-search    catalog  play:product-led@1 (Not live yet, gaps #5)

Every key from the catalogCopy Anchor Link

Compiled, not written: edit the Play record product-led and its Leaseline run, then regenerate. Every step runs from a sentence or a line of code. In your words: the CRM words you know, and where each lives here.