Next order due

# Not live yet (gaps #2)
curl -X POST "https://api.sb/leaseline.app/campaigns?mode=try" \
  -H "Authorization: Bearer $STARTUP_BUILDER_API_KEY" \
  -H "Content-Type: application/json" \
  -d '{"play":"next-outcome"}'

 1import { $ } from 'startup-builder'
 2
 3return await $.Campaign.create({ play: 'next-outcome' }, { mode: 'try' })   // dry run on the day-0 Startup, 2026-08-24 · Not live yet, gaps #2

npx startup-builder do Campaign.create --json '{"play":"next-outcome"}' --try   # Not live yet (gaps #2)

{
  "name": "do",
  "arguments": {
    "code": "return await $.Campaign.create({ play: 'next-outcome' }, { mode: 'try' })   // dry run on the day-0 Startup, 2026-08-24 · Not live yet, gaps #2",
    "mode": "try"
  }
}

 1{
 2  "type": "https://startupbuilder.dev/errors/refused",
 3  "title": "Refused",
 4  "status": 422,
 5  "detail": "next-outcome can’t start yet: 1 check fails and 2 warn.",
 6  "checks": [
 7    {
 8      "check": "use-when",
 9      "status": "pass",
10      "observed": "22 Customers with a delivered Renewal audit, 7 due a month",
11      "doc": "/plays/next-outcome#check-use-when",
12      "fix": "Nothing to do: it counts Customers whose next outcome comes due.",
13      "then": "Metric.query"
14    },
15  …

curl "https://api.sb/leaseline.app/events?where=name%20in%20(%22Order.delivered%22%2C%20%22Schedule.fired%22%2C%20%22Order.placed%22%2C%20%22Order.refunded%22%2C%20%22Offer.published%22%2C%20%22Message.received%22%2C%20%22Renewal.opened%22)&limit=1" \
  -H "Authorization: Bearer $STARTUP_BUILDER_API_KEY"

# Not live yet (gaps #7)
curl -X POST "https://api.sb/leaseline.app/triggers/fire?mode=try" \
  -H "Authorization: Bearer $STARTUP_BUILDER_API_KEY" \
  -H "Content-Type: application/json" \
  -d '{"like":"event_1388"}'

# Not live yet (gaps #7)
curl "https://api.sb/leaseline.app/decisions?where=on%20%3D%20%22customer_23%22" \
  -H "Authorization: Bearer $STARTUP_BUILDER_API_KEY"

# Not live yet (gaps #7)
curl "https://api.sb/leaseline.app/actions?where=on%20%3D%20%22customer_23%22" \
  -H "Authorization: Bearer $STARTUP_BUILDER_API_KEY"

 1import { $ } from 'startup-builder'
 2
 3const { events: [last] } = await $.Event.list({ where: 'name in ("Order.delivered", "Schedule.fired", "Order.placed", "Order.refunded", "Offer.published", "Message.received", "Renewal.opened")', limit: 1 })   // { play } compiled to this Play’s Trigger Events
 4const { subject } = await $.Trigger.fire({ like: last.$id }, { mode: 'try' })   // the same Event again, in try mode · Not live yet, gaps #7
 5const { decisions: [decision] } = await $.Decision.list({ where: `on = "${subject}"` })   // what it chose, and why · Not live yet, gaps #7
 6const { actions } = await $.Action.list({ where: `on = "${subject}"` })   // what it did, with its checks · Not live yet, gaps #7
 7return { decision, actions }

npx startup-builder do Event.list --json '{"where":"name in (\"Order.delivered\", \"Schedule.fired\", \"Order.placed\", \"Order.refunded\", \"Offer.published\", \"Message.received\", \"Renewal.opened\")","limit":1}'
npx startup-builder do Trigger.fire --json '{"like":"event_1388"}' --try   # Not live yet (gaps #7)
npx startup-builder do Decision.list --json '{"where":"on = \"customer_23\""}'   # Not live yet (gaps #7)
npx startup-builder do Action.list --json '{"where":"on = \"customer_23\""}'   # Not live yet (gaps #7)

{
  "name": "do",
  "arguments": {
    "code": "const { events: [last] } = await $.Event.list({ where: 'name in (\"Order.delivered\", \"Schedule.fired\", \"Order.placed\", \"Order.refunded\", \"Offer.published\", \"Message.received\", \"Renewal.opened\")', limit: 1 })   // { play } compiled to this Play’s Trigger Events\nconst { subject } = await $.Trigger.fire({ like: last.$id }, { mode: 'try' })   // the same Event again, in try mode · Not live yet, gaps #7\nconst { decisions: [decision] } = await $.Decision.list({ where: `on = \"${subject}\"` })   // what it chose, and why · Not live yet, gaps #7\nconst { actions } = await $.Action.list({ where: `on = \"${subject}\"` })   // what it did, with its checks · Not live yet, gaps #7\nreturn { decision, actions }",
    "mode": "try"
  }
}

 1{
 2  "decision": {
 3    "$id": "https://api.sb/leaseline.app/decisions/decision_455",
 4    "$type": "Decision",
 5    "choice": "send-due-notice",
 6    "reason": "Cedar Point Rentals’ Renewal audit was delivered 2025-11-18, so the next is due 2026-11-18; the map row is approved, and $450 is over the $100 print line",
 7    "stakes": "low",
 8    "options": [
 9      "send-due-notice",
10      "offer-every-year",
11      "late-note",
12      "to-the-owner",
13      "not-now"
14    ],
15  …

action_3 is the email notice to contact_14, Cedar Point’s billing owner, held 2 minutes. action_4 is the printed notice on day 16; an Order before then cancels it.

≈ +$8,200 ARR held, at 7 due a month

Worth

30 min week 1, then 5 a week

Your time

$0.05 per notice, ~$7 a month at 7 with print

Spend

Day 3: first next audit ordered

First signal

10+ Service Customers, 3+ next outcomes due a month

Use it when

Under 3 due a month: renewal-notice · no outcome map: map it (Offer.update)

Not yet when

Worth’s formula: about +22 Orders per 100 due (Other Startups’ results; no lift of your own yet) × 7 due a month ≈ 1.5 more Orders a month; about 1.4 sit in any 28 days × $450 × 13 ≈ +$8,200 ARR, held while it runs. Under First signal: At 7 due a month, 90 days can tell only +45 per 100 or more, so your file starts at holdout: 0 and reads before-after.

Start it this weekCopy Anchor Link

npx startup-builder add play next-outcome   # 1 · writes plays/next-outcome.mdx (Not live yet, gaps #5)

# 2 · dry run; below, its 422 on 2026-08-24
curl -X POST "https://api.sb/leaseline.app/campaigns?mode=try" \
  -H "Authorization: Bearer $STARTUP_BUILDER_API_KEY" \
  -H "Content-Type: application/json" \
  -d '{"play":"next-outcome"}'

# 3 · keep it, at You approve each one
curl -X POST https://api.sb/leaseline.app/campaigns \
  -H "Authorization: Bearer $STARTUP_BUILDER_API_KEY" \
  -H "Content-Type: application/json" \
  -d '{"play":"next-outcome"}'

# on
curl -X PATCH https://api.sb/leaseline.app/campaigns/next-outcome \
  -H "Authorization: Bearer $STARTUP_BUILDER_API_KEY" \
  -H "Content-Type: application/json" \
  -d '{"endsAt":null}'

# off: no notice sends; every-year charge notices and their cancel links keep sending
curl -X PATCH https://api.sb/leaseline.app/campaigns/next-outcome \
  -H "Authorization: Bearer $STARTUP_BUILDER_API_KEY" \
  -H "Content-Type: application/json" \
  -d '{"endsAt":"now"}'

{
  "type": "https://startupbuilder.dev/errors/refused",
  "title": "Refused",
  "status": 422,
  "detail": "next-outcome can’t start yet: 1 check fails and 2 warn.",
  "checks": [
    {
      "check": "use-when",
      "status": "pass",
      "observed": "22 Customers with a delivered Renewal audit, 7 due a month",
      "doc": "/plays/next-outcome#check-use-when",
      "fix": "Nothing to do: it counts Customers whose next outcome comes due.",
      "then": "Metric.query"
    },
    {
      "check": "billing-connected",
      "status": "fail",
      "doc": "/plays/next-outcome#check-billing-connected",
      "fix": "Connect Stripe so every Order, refund and live Price is real.",
      "then": "Integration.connect"
    },
    {
      "check": "baseline",
      "status": "warn",
      "observed": "3 of 16 ordered with no notice in 90 days",
      "doc": "/plays/next-outcome#check-baseline",
      "fix": "n 16: it reads before-after, not proof, until volume allows a held-back half.",
      "then": "Metric.query"
    },
    {
      "check": "owned-by-a-person",
      "status": "pass",
      "observed": "2 of the 22 have a person owner, you",
      "doc": "/plays/next-outcome#check-owned-by-a-person",
      "fix": "Nothing to do: their notices draft into your queue instead.",
      "then": "Task.assign"
    },
    {
      "check": "keep-first",
      "status": "pass",
      "observed": "1 past due, held",
      "doc": "/plays/next-outcome#check-keep-first",
      "fix": "Nothing to do: a past-due Customer gets no notice until their CSM clears them.",
      "then": "Task.next"
    },
    {
      "check": "customer-ask-cap",
      "status": "pass",
      "observed": "0 open asks",
      "doc": "/plays/next-outcome#check-customer-ask-cap",
      "fix": "Nothing to do: one open ask per Customer, across every Play.",
      "then": "Decision.list"
    },
    {
      "check": "role-unstaffed",
      "status": "warn",
      "roles": [
        "success-manager",
        "sales-lead"
      ],
      "owned": 2,
      "doc": "/plays/next-outcome#check-role-unstaffed",
      "fix": "Staff the CSM and AE, or leave them: those hand-offs come to you.",
      "then": "Role.staff"
    }
  ]
}

Each email notice costs $0.04 from your Domain (Worker cost), and each printed notice about $1.10, under a $100-a-month print Limit. The outcome map and the one-click Order Page cost nothing. That comes to about $7 a month at 7 due with print, and $1 without.

When it startsCopy Anchor Link

{
  "$id": "https://api.sb/leaseline.app/events/event_1388",
  "$type": "Event",
  "name": "Schedule.fired",
  "at": "2026-10-19T07:00:04Z",
  "seq": 1388,
  "data": {
    "customer": "customer_23",
    "outcome": "renewal-audit",
    "from": "orders/order_61",
    "delivered": "2025-11-18",
    "dueAt": "2026-11-18",
    "price": 450,
    "currency": "usd"
  }
}

npx startup-builder trigger Schedule.fired --like event_1388   # replays the delivery in test
npx startup-builder clock advance --by 16d   # runs the printed notice (action_4) unless an Order lands first
npx startup-builder listen Order.placed --forward-to http://localhost:3000/hook

Who runs itCopy Anchor Link

CSM · your agent (role:success-manager, worker_5) holds the Key Result. It hands to each Customer’s owner: AE · Priya Shah (person) (worker_3, staffed on day 9) when they ask to change the scope or the price, and you (Dana Okafor, person, worker_1) for every-year terms and for the Customers you own, because the CSM Role has no person. Your number links to Did it work.

What it reads · What it may call. It reads the delivered Order, the outcome map’s row and the live Price, and never a Visit or a click. POST /{namespace}/orders/place is the Customer’s own press on the one-click Page, never the agent’s call. Its tools are POST /{namespace}/messages/{message}/schedule, POST /{namespace}/approvals, POST /{namespace}/conversations/{conversation}/escalate, POST /{namespace}/tasks/{task}/assign, and any other call becomes an Approval under the Role’s Mandate.

You hold the CSM Key Result: 45 next audits ordered per 100 due by 2026-12-31.   ← worker, metric
On each outcome that comes due, choose one option and say why; a held Customer gets Not now. ← triggers, chooses, keep-first
The due date is the one the outcome map computes from their own delivered Order. ← copyRules 1
Every Price is the live Price; no consequence past the approved line.            ← copyRules 2–3
Say it is an offer from Leaseline; never say the audit has started.              ← copyRules 5–6
Every notice carries a done-elsewhere link and an unsubscribe link.              ← copyRules 7

The slow loop, as a Change. decision_377 (2026-09-21, weekly) read 4 notices sent 30 days out with 1 Order by the due date, and 3 Orders in the week after it. change_29 added a reminder on the due date itself (your file, line 5), and Dana merged it with POST /{namespace}/changes/{change}/merge. Replayed on past notices, POST /{namespace}/changes/{change}/review put the row at 58 per 100; it has no read-back yet: 2 notices have reached their window since.

Bring your own agent (folded) starts at It does it, you can stop it when it matches or beats the seated agent on the eval suite, and at You approve each one when it does not; POST /{namespace}/roles/{role}/staff seats it.

npx startup-builder eval --scenario next-outcome-31 --agent "claude -p" --seat success-manager   # seated: 0 wrong dates, 0 Checks failed sent, $0.04 a notice · yours: 1 wrong date → You approve each one

What it can do nextCopy Anchor Link

When it hands to youCopy Anchor Link

On this Play, hand-offs go to the Customer’s owner, the CSM’s seat: you for every-year terms and the Customers you own, and AE · Priya Shah (person) for a change of scope or price. One Brief per Role, as captured (brief is Not live yet, gaps #7).

[
  {
    "$id": "https://api.sb/leaseline.app/tasks/task_471",
    "$type": "Task",
    "assignee": "worker_3",
    "due": "2026-10-09T16:20:00Z",
    "on": "customer_7",
    "brief": {
      "who": "Birchway Properties",
      "said": "Can you add our 2 new owners to the same audit?",
      "chose": "to-the-owner",
      "why": "a change of scope is a Quote, the AE’s",
      "due": "next audit 2026-11-02",
      "never": [
        "a discount",
        "a date the map didn’t compute"
      ]
    }
  },
  {
    "$id": "https://api.sb/leaseline.app/approvals/approval_64",
    "$type": "Approval",
    "verdict": "approved",
    "deadline": "2026-09-30T17:00:00Z",
    "draft": "Your next Renewal audit is due Oct 29. You’ve booked it on time twice; you can have it booked every year at $450…",
    "route": "offer-every-year",
    "checks": [
      {
        "check": "fact-check",
        "status": "pass"
      },
      {
        "check": "keep-first",
        "status": "pass"
      }
    ]
  },
  {
    "$id": "https://api.sb/leaseline.app/tasks/task_458",
    "$type": "Task",
    "assignee": "worker_1",
    "due": "2026-10-02T17:00:00Z",
    "on": "customer_31",
    "brief": {
      "who": "Fairmont Lofts",
      "chose": "not-now",
      "why": "invoice past due since Oct 1",
      "held": "keep-first",
      "next": "their audit notice sends once you clear the invoice"
    }
  }
]

The owner answers with POST /{namespace}/tasks/{task}/claim (Take this one), POST /{namespace}/tasks/{task}/return with a reason, POST /{namespace}/actions/{action}/redirect, POST /{namespace}/approvals/{approval}/approve or POST /{namespace}/approvals/{approval}/refuse, each a one-call window; an Approval unanswered by its deadline expires and the plain notice sends instead. Once a person claims, the agent’s pending notices to that Customer cancel with claimedByPerson (Not live yet, gaps #7). A Task nobody claims by its due time goes up a Role through POST /{namespace}/tasks/{task}/escalate, and person-promise fires.

On time: 4 of 4 claimed within their due time, median 3 h 10 min, n 4, ■□□□ Too early to tell beside Other Startups’ 93 % on time. Your queue: in week 1, 5 approvals and 1 hand-off; after the promotion, about 1 approval (every-year terms) and 1 hand-off a fortnight.

The fixed line: POST /{namespace}/deals/{deal}/assign sets owner to the receiving person, the agent is never a Deal’s owner, and Meetings land on the owner’s calendar under the owner’s name.

When it won’t sendCopy Anchor Link

The captured refusal, then the Stop that fired as a Campaign.paused reason (Not live yet, gaps #2); the rewrite that sent is the Maple Court thread in Example.

{
  "type": "https://startupbuilder.dev/errors/refused",
  "title": "Refused",
  "status": 422,
  "detail": "The late note to Maple Court did not send: it states a consequence the outcome map does not approve.",
  "checks": [
    {
      "check": "fact-check",
      "status": "fail",
      "doc": "/plays/next-outcome#check-fact-check",
      "fix": "Cut the claim, or name the record that backs it.",
      "then": "Content.draft"
    },
    {
      "check": "keep-first",
      "status": "pass"
    }
  ]
}

[
  {
    "reason": {
      "limit": "spend-limit",
      "observed": "$100.40",
      "bound": "$100",
      "window": "October"
    },
    "doc": "/plays/next-outcome#stop-spend-limit",
    "task": "task_466"
  }
]

Did it workCopy Anchor Link

At 7 due a month, no held-back half reads within 90 days, so the basis is before-after (rule o): the columns read Now and Before, and nothing prints as Added. Each figure’s call is POST /{namespace}/metrics/query by node, and every node above the leaf is Not live yet (gaps #4).

{
  "$id": "decisions/decision_455",
  "$type": "Decision",
  "choice": "send-due-notice",
  "reason": "Cedar Point Rentals’ Renewal audit was delivered 2025-11-18, so the next is due 2026-11-18; the map row is approved, and $450 is over the $100 print line",
  "stakes": "low",
  "options": [
    "send-due-notice",
    "offer-every-year",
    "late-note",
    "to-the-owner",
    "not-now"
  ],
  "by": "worker_5",
  "on": "customer_23",
  "expected": "Order.placed for the next Renewal audit by 2026-12-18",
  "reopensWhen": "no Order.placed for customer_23’s next audit by 2026-11-21, and the row allows a late audit"
}

Before against after reads the outcomes that came due in this window against the 16 that came due in the 90 days before it with no notice; it is not proof, and Other Startups’ results print beside it.

How it moves it: each notice reached the Customer 30 days before the due date their own Order set, where before the date passed with nothing sent (next-outcome-acceptance by days to due).

Guardrails: before against after: contraction-arr, $0 from audit Customers who also pay for Pro against $0 before, and refunds, 0 of 5 Orders against a 5 % Stop.

{
  "$id": "https://api.sb/leaseline.app/campaigns/next-outcome",
  "$type": "Campaign",
  "play": "play:next-outcome@1",
  "path": [
    "next-outcome-acceptance",
    "reactivated-arr",
    "net-new-arr",
    "arr"
  ],
  "experiment": {
    "metric": "next-outcome-acceptance",
    "unit": "per-100",
    "heldBack": 0,
    "decision": null
  },
  "readout": {
    "value": null,
    "n": 6,
    "maturing": 8,
    "interval": null,
    "readability": "inadmissible",
    "basis": "before-after",
    "pooled": true
  },
  "ledger": {
    "spend": 6,
    "workerCost": 1,
    "hours": 1.1,
    "pipelineArr": 900,
    "wonArr": 17550,
    "projectedArr": 8200,
    "paybackDays": 1
  }
}

Outside benchmark: the catalog holds none for this Play yet, so Other Startups’ results stand in: +22 Orders per 100 due, ■■■□ Likely, n 4,100.

Before it · After it. Before it: Renewal audits reach it through Order.delivered, most of them sold by instant-response and paid-pilot. After it: annual-prepay hears the Customers who took every-year terms, and customer-referrals hears the Customers who ordered twice; keep-first holds both while a Customer is at risk. An offer from your other Startups goes through cross-sell, never this notice.

ExampleCopy Anchor Link

Leaseline ran it from 2026-08-24 to 2026-10-19 (56 days): 14 Decisions on 13 Customers whose next audit came due, 6 of them past their due date + 30 days. Read every captured thread at ?threads=all; three follow the tables.

Leaseline → Juniper Homes’ billing owner, Aug 27, 07:02 · Your Renewal audit was delivered on Sep 25 last year, so the next is due Sep 25.¹ It is $450, as on our pricing Page.² Book it in one click, or tell us it’s done elsewhere.³ This is an offer from Leaseline. *Signed with the Role’s disclosure line.*⁴

Juniper, Aug 27, 09:15 · pressed Book it. Order.placed, $450; the audit was delivered Sep 22.

- Your audit is overdue, and late renewal notices could cost you tenants this winter.
+ Your audit was due Oct 9. It can still be done this month at $450; book it in one click, or tell us it’s done elsewhere.

Birchway Properties, 2026-10-08 16:20 · “Can you add our 2 new owners to the same audit?” · Leaseline, 16:22 · *Thanks. Priya, your account lead, replies by tomorrow 16:20 with a Quote.*⁵ The Brief went to Priya (task_471); she claimed it at 17:05 and sent the Quote the next morning at 10:40.

¹ The date the outcome map computes from their own delivered Order. ² The live Price. ³ The one-click Order and the done-elsewhere link. ⁴ The fixed signature line, compiled from the Role’s disclosure Setting. ⁵ The routed line, compiled from the Role’s Settings.

Your settingsCopy Anchor Link

---
holdout: 0        # 7 due a month is too few to hold some back; it reads before-after
---
Tell them 30 days before their next Renewal audit is due; mail a printed notice too.
Remind them on the due date itself.
If they ask to change the scope or the price, bring in our AE.

$ npx startup-builder show plays/next-outcome
holdout 0 · lead time 30 days · due-date reminder · AE for scope and price     your file  plays/next-outcome.mdx:2,4,5,6 (Ask 2026-08-24; line 5 by change_29, 2026-09-21)
family keep · worker role:success-manager, owns never · chooses 5 (2 rule, 3 read) · sequences next-outcome-due-notice, next-outcome-overdue-note, next-outcome-yearly-notice · checks owned-by-a-person, keep-first, customer-ask-cap, capacity, fact-check · stops 10 · placements gmail, outlook + postal-mail under a $100 print Limit    catalog  play:next-outcome@1 (Not live yet, gaps #5)

Every key from the catalogCopy Anchor Link

Compiled, not written: edit the Play record next-outcome and its Leaseline run, then regenerate. Every step runs from a sentence or a line of code. In your words: the CRM words you know, and where each lives here.