Lead nurture

# Not live yet (gaps #2)
curl -X POST "https://api.sb/leaseline.app/campaigns?mode=try" \
  -H "Authorization: Bearer $STARTUP_BUILDER_API_KEY" \
  -H "Content-Type: application/json" \
  -d '{"play":"lead-nurture"}'

 1import { $ } from 'startup-builder'
 2
 3return await $.Campaign.create({ play: 'lead-nurture' }, { mode: 'try' })   // dry run on the day-0 Startup, 2026-06-22 · Not live yet, gaps #2

npx startup-builder do Campaign.create --json '{"play":"lead-nurture"}' --try   # Not live yet (gaps #2)

{
  "name": "do",
  "arguments": {
    "code": "return await $.Campaign.create({ play: 'lead-nurture' }, { mode: 'try' })   // dry run on the day-0 Startup, 2026-06-22 · Not live yet, gaps #2",
    "mode": "try"
  }
}

 1{
 2  "type": "https://startupbuilder.dev/errors/refused",
 3  "title": "Refused",
 4  "status": 422,
 5  "detail": "lead-nurture can’t start: 2 checks fail and 1 warns.",
 6  "checks": [
 7    {
 8      "check": "use-when",
 9      "status": "pass",
10      "observed": "34 new Leads a month not bought or booked within 7 days",
11      "doc": "/plays/lead-nurture#check-use-when",
12      "then": "Metric.query"
13    },
14    {
15  …

curl "https://api.sb/leaseline.app/events?where=name%20in%20(%22Lead.qualified%22%2C%20%22Conversation.answered%22%2C%20%22Conversation.closed%22%2C%20%22Visitor.identified%22%2C%20%22Customer.activated%22%2C%20%22Entitlement.checked%22%2C%20%22Offer.trialed%22%2C%20%22Order.started%22%2C%20%22Event.captured%22%2C%20%22Version.deployed%22%2C%20%22Meeting.booked%22%2C%20%22Waitlist.admitted%22%2C%20%22Approval.approved%22%2C%20%22Monitor.checked%22)&limit=1" \
  -H "Authorization: Bearer $STARTUP_BUILDER_API_KEY"

# Not live yet (gaps #7)
curl -X POST "https://api.sb/leaseline.app/triggers/fire?mode=try" \
  -H "Authorization: Bearer $STARTUP_BUILDER_API_KEY" \
  -H "Content-Type: application/json" \
  -d '{"like":"event_1211"}'

# Not live yet (gaps #7)
curl "https://api.sb/leaseline.app/decisions?where=on%20%3D%20%22lead_61%22" \
  -H "Authorization: Bearer $STARTUP_BUILDER_API_KEY"

# Not live yet (gaps #7)
curl "https://api.sb/leaseline.app/actions?where=on%20%3D%20%22lead_61%22" \
  -H "Authorization: Bearer $STARTUP_BUILDER_API_KEY"

 1import { $ } from 'startup-builder'
 2
 3const { events: [last] } = await $.Event.list({ where: 'name in ("Lead.qualified", "Conversation.answered", "Conversation.closed", "Visitor.identified", "Customer.activated", "Entitlement.checked", "Offer.trialed", "Order.started", "Event.captured", "Version.deployed", "Meeting.booked", "Waitlist.admitted", "Approval.approved", "Monitor.checked")', limit: 1 })   // { play } compiled to this Play’s Trigger Events
 4const { subject } = await $.Trigger.fire({ like: last.$id }, { mode: 'try' })   // the same Event again, in try mode · Not live yet, gaps #7
 5const { decisions: [decision] } = await $.Decision.list({ where: `on = "${subject}"` })   // what it chose, and why · Not live yet, gaps #7
 6const { actions } = await $.Action.list({ where: `on = "${subject}"` })   // what it did, with its checks · Not live yet, gaps #7
 7return { decision, actions }

npx startup-builder do Event.list --json '{"where":"name in (\"Lead.qualified\", \"Conversation.answered\", \"Conversation.closed\", \"Visitor.identified\", \"Customer.activated\", \"Entitlement.checked\", \"Offer.trialed\", \"Order.started\", \"Event.captured\", \"Version.deployed\", \"Meeting.booked\", \"Waitlist.admitted\", \"Approval.approved\", \"Monitor.checked\")","limit":1}'
npx startup-builder do Trigger.fire --json '{"like":"event_1211"}' --try   # Not live yet (gaps #7)
npx startup-builder do Decision.list --json '{"where":"on = \"lead_61\""}'   # Not live yet (gaps #7)
npx startup-builder do Action.list --json '{"where":"on = \"lead_61\""}'   # Not live yet (gaps #7)

{
  "name": "do",
  "arguments": {
    "code": "const { events: [last] } = await $.Event.list({ where: 'name in (\"Lead.qualified\", \"Conversation.answered\", \"Conversation.closed\", \"Visitor.identified\", \"Customer.activated\", \"Entitlement.checked\", \"Offer.trialed\", \"Order.started\", \"Event.captured\", \"Version.deployed\", \"Meeting.booked\", \"Waitlist.admitted\", \"Approval.approved\", \"Monitor.checked\")', limit: 1 })   // { play } compiled to this Play’s Trigger Events\nconst { subject } = await $.Trigger.fire({ like: last.$id }, { mode: 'try' })   // the same Event again, in try mode · Not live yet, gaps #7\nconst { decisions: [decision] } = await $.Decision.list({ where: `on = \"${subject}\"` })   // what it chose, and why · Not live yet, gaps #7\nconst { actions } = await $.Action.list({ where: `on = \"${subject}\"` })   // what it did, with its checks · Not live yet, gaps #7\nreturn { decision, actions }",
    "mode": "try"
  }
}

 1{
 2  "decision": {
 3    "$id": "https://api.sb/leaseline.app/decisions/decision_437",
 4    "$type": "Decision",
 5    "choice": "self-serve-branch",
 6    "reason": "Ivy Chen at Copper Oak Rentals (38 units) is on the free plan and added no owner 24 hours after signup; the rescue step sends the one next step",
 7    "stakes": "low",
 8    "options": [
 9      "self-serve-branch",
10      "assisted-branch",
11      "answer-what-they-asked",
12      "recap-and-offer-times",
13      "rescue-the-checkout",
14      "to-the-ae",
15  …

action_2 is the rescue note, held for Ivy’s quiet hours until 08:00 her time. It ends the moment she adds an owner, replies or buys.

≈ +$570 ARR a month at 35

Worth

30 min a day week 1, then 20 min a week

Your time

$0.01 per note, ~$3 a month at 35

Spend

Day 3: first nurtured Lead books a Meeting

First signal

20+ new Leads a month not bought within 7 days

Use it when

Under 20: instant-response · no marketing Purpose: add it (Site.publish)

Not yet when

Worth’s formula: about +4 paid per 100 enrolled (Other Startups’ results; no lift of your own to read) × 35 enrolled a month × $410 first order ARR ≈ +$574. Under First signal: Each Lead reads at day 90; at 35 a month, 90 days can tell only +14 per 100 or more, so your file starts at holdout: 0 and reads before-after.

Start it this weekCopy Anchor Link

npx startup-builder add play lead-nurture   # 1 · writes plays/lead-nurture.mdx (Not live yet, gaps #5)

# 2 · dry run; below, its 422 on 2026-06-22
curl -X POST "https://api.sb/leaseline.app/campaigns?mode=try" \
  -H "Authorization: Bearer $STARTUP_BUILDER_API_KEY" \
  -H "Content-Type: application/json" \
  -d '{"play":"lead-nurture"}'

# 3 · keep it, at You approve each one for the first 20 Leads
curl -X POST https://api.sb/leaseline.app/campaigns \
  -H "Authorization: Bearer $STARTUP_BUILDER_API_KEY" \
  -H "Content-Type: application/json" \
  -d '{"play":"lead-nurture"}'

# on
curl -X PATCH https://api.sb/leaseline.app/campaigns/lead-nurture \
  -H "Authorization: Bearer $STARTUP_BUILDER_API_KEY" \
  -H "Content-Type: application/json" \
  -d '{"endsAt":null}'

# off: no note sends; service touches still send
curl -X PATCH https://api.sb/leaseline.app/campaigns/lead-nurture \
  -H "Authorization: Bearer $STARTUP_BUILDER_API_KEY" \
  -H "Content-Type: application/json" \
  -d '{"endsAt":"now"}'

{
  "type": "https://startupbuilder.dev/errors/refused",
  "title": "Refused",
  "status": 422,
  "detail": "lead-nurture can’t start: 2 checks fail and 1 warns.",
  "checks": [
    {
      "check": "use-when",
      "status": "pass",
      "observed": "34 new Leads a month not bought or booked within 7 days",
      "doc": "/plays/lead-nurture#check-use-when",
      "then": "Metric.query"
    },
    {
      "check": "baseline",
      "status": "pass",
      "observed": "7.3 paid per 100 within 90 days, n 41",
      "doc": "/plays/lead-nurture#check-baseline",
      "then": "Metric.query"
    },
    {
      "check": "marketing-purpose",
      "status": "fail",
      "doc": "/plays/lead-nurture#check-marketing-purpose",
      "fix": "Add the marketing Purpose to your signup and Form copy; until then only service touches send.",
      "then": "Site.publish"
    },
    {
      "check": "domain-authenticated",
      "status": "fail",
      "doc": "/plays/lead-nurture#check-domain-authenticated",
      "fix": "Add the 3 DNS records shown; it passes once they resolve, often within an hour.",
      "then": "Domain.authenticate"
    },
    {
      "check": "mailbox-warm",
      "status": "pass",
      "observed": "the Startup’s Mailbox, warm since May",
      "doc": "/plays/lead-nurture#check-mailbox-warm",
      "then": "Mailbox.warm"
    },
    {
      "check": "role-unstaffed",
      "status": "warn",
      "roles": [
        "sales-lead"
      ],
      "owned": 9,
      "doc": "/plays/lead-nurture#check-role-unstaffed",
      "fix": "Staff the AE, or leave it: call asks come to you.",
      "then": "Role.staff"
    }
  ]
}

Each note costs under $0.01 to fill (Worker cost), and sending runs on the shared broadcast stream at no charge. Your founder notes cost your 2 minutes each. That comes to about $3 a month at 35 enrolled Leads.

When it startsCopy Anchor Link

{
  "$id": "https://api.sb/leaseline.app/events/event_1211",
  "$type": "Event",
  "name": "Visitor.identified",
  "at": "2026-10-19T09:12:30Z",
  "seq": 1211,
  "data": {
    "lead": "leads/lead_61",
    "name": "Ivy Chen",
    "organization": "Copper Oak Rentals",
    "units": 38,
    "plan": "free",
    "signedUpAt": "2026-10-18T09:12:30Z",
    "activated": false
  }
}

# each delivery is signed with the Watch’s secret
curl -X POST https://api.sb/leaseline.app/watches \
  -H "Authorization: Bearer $STARTUP_BUILDER_API_KEY" \
  -H "Content-Type: application/json" \
  -d '{"selector":"Visitor.identified","url":"https://leaseline.app/hooks/sb"}'
npx startup-builder trigger Visitor.identified --like event_1211   # replays the delivery
npx startup-builder clock advance --by 1d   # runs the rescue step unless she adds an owner first

Who runs itCopy Anchor Link

SDR · your agent (role:prospector, worker_2) holds the Key Result and picks each step from what the Lead did. Your day-3 notes to big accounts hand to you (Dana Okafor, person, worker_1), and call asks go to AE · Priya Shah (person) (role:sales-lead, worker_3, staffed on day 72). Notes from the agent are signed by the agent, named as an agent.

What it reads · What it may call. It reads what each Lead did in Leaseline and said in their own words, and never names a Visit or a Page view in a note. It may call POST /{namespace}/contacts/{contact}/enroll, POST /{namespace}/messages/{message}/schedule and POST /{namespace}/leads/{lead}/assign; POST /{namespace}/meetings/book lands on the AE’s calendar under the AE’s name. Its tools are POST /{namespace}/meetings/book, POST /{namespace}/tasks/{task}/assign, and any other call becomes an Approval under the Role’s Mandate.

You hold the SDR Key Result: 20 paid per 100 enrolled Leads by 2026-12-31.       ← worker, metric
On each Lead Event, choose one option and say why; at 90 silent days, Let them go. ← triggers, chooses
At 120 units or more, the founder writes a note on day 3.                        ← your file, line 4
Send the closest paid step when they add their first owner, not on a fixed day.  ← your file, line 5
Fill at most three fields; the template holds the Offer, the signature and the stop line. ← copyRules 4
No deadline, countdown or discount the Offer record lacks.                       ← copyRules 5, approved-pages

The slow loop, as a Change. decision_301 (2026-09-07, weekly) read 7 of 24 self-serve Leads paying when the closest-paid note followed their first owner within a day, against 2 of 19 when it went on day 4, so change_16 keyed that note to the first owner (your file, line 5), and Dana merged it with POST /{namespace}/changes/{change}/merge. Replayed on past Leads, POST /{namespace}/changes/{change}/review put the branch at 21 per 100; read back at +30d it is 19 per 100, n 21, ■□□□ Too early to tell (Example, day 107).

Bring your own agent (folded) sends at It does it, you can stop it when it matches or beats the seated agent on the eval suite, and at You approve each one when it does not; POST /{namespace}/roles/{role}/staff seats it.

npx startup-builder eval --scenario lead-nurture-136 --agent "claude -p" --seat prospector   # seated: 17.6 per 100, 0 Checks failed sent, $0.02 a Lead · yours: 16.1, 1 discount drafted, $0.03 → You approve each one

What it can do nextCopy Anchor Link

When it hands to youCopy Anchor Link

Day-3 notes in your name go to you (Dana Okafor, person); call asks, pricing returns and no-shows go to AE · Priya Shah (person), and before day 72 they came to you. As captured, one Brief per Role (brief, draft, route and checks are Not live yet, gaps #7).

[
  {
    "$id": "https://api.sb/leaseline.app/approvals/approval_97",
    "$type": "Approval",
    "verdict": null,
    "deadline": "2026-10-20T15:00:00Z",
    "draft": "Marcus, you asked whether Leaseline handles 4 owners on one portfolio. It does; that is why I built it. Want 15 minutes on Thursday?",
    "route": "assisted-branch",
    "checks": [
      {
        "check": "approved-pages",
        "status": "pass"
      },
      {
        "check": "owned-by-a-person",
        "status": "pass"
      }
    ]
  },
  {
    "$id": "https://api.sb/leaseline.app/tasks/task_527",
    "$type": "Task",
    "assignee": "worker_3",
    "due": "2026-10-16T15:20:00Z",
    "on": "lead_47",
    "brief": {
      "who": "Hilltop Rentals, 95 units",
      "did": "the pricing Page on Oct 13 and Oct 16; Team plan open both days",
      "chose": "to-the-ae",
      "why": "a fit Lead back on pricing 2 days in 7",
      "never": [
        "a discount",
        "a deadline the Offer lacks"
      ]
    }
  }
]

You answer a founder note with POST /{namespace}/approvals/{approval}/approve, an edit, or POST /{namespace}/approvals/{approval}/refuse; one unanswered by its deadline expires, and the branch carries on without it. The AE answers with POST /{namespace}/tasks/{task}/claim (Take this one), POST /{namespace}/tasks/{task}/return with a reason, or POST /{namespace}/actions/{action}/redirect; once claimed, the agent’s pending notes to that Lead cancel with claimedByPerson (Not live yet, gaps #7). A Task nobody claims by its due time goes up a Role through POST /{namespace}/tasks/{task}/escalate (AE to you), and unanswered-reply fires.

On time: AE · Priya Shah: 6 of 6 claimed within 60 min, median 21 min, n 6. You: 17 of 19 founder notes approved by their deadline, n 19, ■■□□ Early sign beside Other Startups’ 89 % on time. Your queue: counted by kind: in week 1, about 12 note reviews a day; after day 21, about 1 founder note and 1 AE hand-off a week, and 1 weekly readout.

The fixed line: POST /{namespace}/deals/{deal}/assign sets owner to the receiving person, the agent is never a Deal’s owner, and Meetings land on the owner’s calendar under the owner’s name.

When it won’t sendCopy Anchor Link

The captured refusal, then the Stop that fired as a Campaign.paused reason (Not live yet, gaps #2); the rewrite that sent is the Elm Street thread in Example.

{
  "type": "https://startupbuilder.dev/errors/refused",
  "title": "Refused",
  "status": 422,
  "detail": "The month-one close to Elm Street Rentals did not send: it carries a deadline and a discount no Offer holds.",
  "checks": [
    {
      "check": "approved-pages",
      "status": "fail",
      "doc": "/plays/lead-nurture#check-approved-pages",
      "fix": "Cut the line, or publish the Page that says it.",
      "then": "Site.publish"
    },
    {
      "check": "owned-by-a-person",
      "status": "pass"
    }
  ]
}

[
  {
    "reason": {
      "limit": "unanswered-reply",
      "observed": "2h 10m",
      "bound": "60m",
      "window": "1 reply"
    },
    "doc": "/plays/lead-nurture#stop-unanswered-reply",
    "task": "task_498"
  }
]

Did it workCopy Anchor Link

At about 8 enrolled a week, no held-back half reads within 90 days, so the basis is before-after (rule o): the columns read Now and Before, and nothing prints as Added. Each figure’s call is POST /{namespace}/metrics/query by node, and every node above the leaf is Not live yet (gaps #4).

{
  "$id": "decisions/decision_437",
  "$type": "Decision",
  "choice": "self-serve-branch",
  "reason": "Ivy Chen at Copper Oak Rentals (38 units) is on the free plan and added no owner 24 hours after signup; the rescue step sends the one next step",
  "stakes": "low",
  "options": [
    "self-serve-branch",
    "assisted-branch",
    "answer-what-they-asked",
    "recap-and-offer-times",
    "rescue-the-checkout",
    "to-the-ae",
    "let-them-go"
  ],
  "by": "worker_2",
  "on": "lead_61",
  "expected": "the first owner added within 3d",
  "reopensWhen": "no Customer.activated for lead_61 within 3d"
}

Before against after reads Leads enrolled Jun 22 to Jul 21, matured at day 90, against the 41 Leads of the 90 days before, who got no nurture. It is not proof; Other Startups’ results, read against 10 % held back at random at enrollment, print beside it.

How it moves it: each step fires within an hour of what the Lead did, and the closest paid step follows the first owner they add instead of a fixed day 4.

Guardrails: before against after: outside-paying-customers, 15 against 3, and spam-rate, 0.04 % of 1,880 notes; stops at 0.6 % of delivered.

{
  "$id": "https://api.sb/leaseline.app/campaigns/lead-nurture",
  "$type": "Campaign",
  "play": "play:lead-nurture@1",
  "path": [
    "nurture-conversion",
    "new-paying-customers",
    "new-arr",
    "net-new-arr",
    "arr"
  ],
  "experiment": {
    "metric": "nurture-conversion",
    "unit": "percent",
    "heldBack": 0,
    "decision": null
  },
  "readout": {
    "value": null,
    "n": 34,
    "maturing": 102,
    "interval": null,
    "readability": "inadmissible",
    "basis": "before-after",
    "pooled": true
  },
  "ledger": {
    "spend": 0,
    "workerCost": 11,
    "hours": 9.5,
    "pipelineArr": 4800,
    "wonArr": 6393,
    "projectedArr": 574,
    "paybackDays": 1
  }
}

Outside benchmark: the record’s nurture-month-one-plan-upgrades range, from a subscription-analytics firm’s billing data, puts most first plan upgrades in a subscriber’s first month, which is why the notes are front-loaded there.

Before it · After it. Before it: instant-response routes Nurture and trial Leads here, and product-led signups. After it: every purchase goes to onboarding, call asks to the AE, and Let them go hands Leads to lead-reactivation after a 60-day rest.

ExampleCopy Anchor Link

Leaseline ran it from 2026-06-22 to 2026-10-19 (119 days): 136 Leads enrolled, 34 matured past day 90 and 102 still maturing, and 1,880 notes sent. Read every captured thread at ?threads=all; three follow the tables.

Leaseline’s agent → Noor Haddad, Elm Street Rentals, Jul 3, 08:05 · You signed up yesterday; the one step left is adding your first owner, which takes about 2 minutes.¹ https://leaseline.app/owners/new *Signed by Leaseline’s agent, named as an agent, with the stop line.*²

Noor, Jul 3, 08:40 · added her first owner. Jul 3, 09:30 · the closest paid note: Pro sends that owner’s renewal batch 60 days out, for $29 a month.³ Jul 16 · paid for Pro, +$347 ARR.

- Upgrade by Friday to keep 20% off Pro.
+ Pro sends each owner their renewal batch, 60 days out, for $29 a month. Want it on for your 22 units?

Hilltop Rentals, 2026-10-16 14:20 · back on the pricing Page for a second day in a week, Team open both times. The agent sent no note and chose To the AE, Brief attached, due 15:20. · Priya, 14:38 · claimed it with POST /{namespace}/tasks/{task}/claim and wrote with three times; they booked Oct 21. The Brief is in When it hands to you (task_527).

¹ What she did in Leaseline, in her own terms; never a Page view. ² The fixed signature and stop lines, compiled from the Role’s Settings. ³ The Pricing Page’s list Price, and one ask.

Your settingsCopy Anchor Link

---
holdout: 0        # 8 a week is too few to hold 1 in 10 back; it reads before-after
---
At 120 units or more, I write a note on day 3.
Send the closest paid step when they add their first owner, not on a fixed day.

$ npx startup-builder show plays/lead-nurture
holdout 0 · founder note at 120 units · closest paid on the first owner     your file  plays/lead-nurture.mdx:2,4,5 (Ask 2026-06-22; line 5 by change_16, 2026-09-07)
family demand · worker role:prospector, owns never · chooses 7 (5 rule, 2 read) · sequences nurture-self-serve, nurture-assisted, nurture-founder-note, nurture-interest, nurture-waitlist, form-non-booker, chat-non-booker, checkout-rescue-two-touch · checks owned-by-a-person, customer-collision, approved-pages, marketing-purpose, claims-hold, collision-hold · stops 9 · placements gmail, outlook, yahoo-mail    catalog  play:lead-nurture@1 (Not live yet, gaps #5)

Every key from the catalogCopy Anchor Link

Compiled, not written: edit the Play record lead-nurture and its Leaseline run, then regenerate. Every step runs from a sentence or a line of code. In your words: the CRM words you know, and where each lives here.