Creator probe

# Not live yet (gaps #2)
curl -X POST "https://api.sb/leaseline.app/campaigns?mode=try" \
  -H "Authorization: Bearer $STARTUP_BUILDER_API_KEY" \
  -H "Content-Type: application/json" \
  -d '{"play":"creator-probe"}'

 1import { $ } from 'startup-builder'
 2
 3return await $.Campaign.create({ play: 'creator-probe' }, { mode: 'try' })   // dry run on the day-0 Startup, 2026-08-24 · Not live yet, gaps #2

npx startup-builder do Campaign.create --json '{"play":"creator-probe"}' --try   # Not live yet (gaps #2)

{
  "name": "do",
  "arguments": {
    "code": "return await $.Campaign.create({ play: 'creator-probe' }, { mode: 'try' })   // dry run on the day-0 Startup, 2026-08-24 · Not live yet, gaps #2",
    "mode": "try"
  }
}

 1{
 2  "type": "https://startupbuilder.dev/errors/refused",
 3  "title": "Refused",
 4  "status": 422,
 5  "detail": "creator-probe can’t start yet: 1 check fails and 2 warn.",
 6  "checks": [
 7    {
 8      "check": "use-when",
 9      "status": "pass",
10      "observed": "$500 creator line; the trial takes a code",
11      "doc": "/plays/creator-probe#check-use-when",
12      "then": "Metric.query"
13    },
14    {
15  …

curl "https://api.sb/leaseline.app/events?where=name%20in%20(%22PlayMix.compiled%22%2C%20%22Monitor.checked%22%2C%20%22Post.published%22%2C%20%22Offer.trialed%22)&limit=1" \
  -H "Authorization: Bearer $STARTUP_BUILDER_API_KEY"

# Not live yet (gaps #7)
curl -X POST "https://api.sb/leaseline.app/triggers/fire?mode=try" \
  -H "Authorization: Bearer $STARTUP_BUILDER_API_KEY" \
  -H "Content-Type: application/json" \
  -d '{"like":"event_1260"}'

# Not live yet (gaps #7)
curl "https://api.sb/leaseline.app/decisions?where=on%20%3D%20%22handle_31%22" \
  -H "Authorization: Bearer $STARTUP_BUILDER_API_KEY"

# Not live yet (gaps #7)
curl "https://api.sb/leaseline.app/actions?where=on%20%3D%20%22handle_31%22" \
  -H "Authorization: Bearer $STARTUP_BUILDER_API_KEY"

 1import { $ } from 'startup-builder'
 2
 3const { events: [last] } = await $.Event.list({ where: 'name in ("PlayMix.compiled", "Monitor.checked", "Post.published", "Offer.trialed")', limit: 1 })   // { play } compiled to this Play’s Trigger Events
 4const { subject } = await $.Trigger.fire({ like: last.$id }, { mode: 'try' })   // the same Event again, in try mode · Not live yet, gaps #7
 5const { decisions: [decision] } = await $.Decision.list({ where: `on = "${subject}"` })   // what it chose, and why · Not live yet, gaps #7
 6const { actions } = await $.Action.list({ where: `on = "${subject}"` })   // what it did, with its checks · Not live yet, gaps #7
 7return { decision, actions }

npx startup-builder do Event.list --json '{"where":"name in (\"PlayMix.compiled\", \"Monitor.checked\", \"Post.published\", \"Offer.trialed\")","limit":1}'
npx startup-builder do Trigger.fire --json '{"like":"event_1260"}' --try   # Not live yet (gaps #7)
npx startup-builder do Decision.list --json '{"where":"on = \"handle_31\""}'   # Not live yet (gaps #7)
npx startup-builder do Action.list --json '{"where":"on = \"handle_31\""}'   # Not live yet (gaps #7)

{
  "name": "do",
  "arguments": {
    "code": "const { events: [last] } = await $.Event.list({ where: 'name in (\"PlayMix.compiled\", \"Monitor.checked\", \"Post.published\", \"Offer.trialed\")', limit: 1 })   // { play } compiled to this Play’s Trigger Events\nconst { subject } = await $.Trigger.fire({ like: last.$id }, { mode: 'try' })   // the same Event again, in try mode · Not live yet, gaps #7\nconst { decisions: [decision] } = await $.Decision.list({ where: `on = \"${subject}\"` })   // what it chose, and why · Not live yet, gaps #7\nconst { actions } = await $.Action.list({ where: `on = \"${subject}\"` })   // what it did, with its checks · Not live yet, gaps #7\nreturn { decision, actions }",
    "mode": "try"
  }
}

 1{
 2  "decision": {
 3    "$id": "https://api.sb/leaseline.app/decisions/decision_658",
 4    "$type": "Decision",
 5    "choice": "offer-a-post",
 6    "reason": "Tom Ellis, a small-landlord channel with 9,800 followers, drew 6 specific asks about renewal notices under his Oct 15 post; real comments, and his cluster still has an open slot",
 7    "stakes": "low",
 8    "options": [
 9      "offer-a-post",
10      "send-the-brief",
11      "hold-the-fee",
12      "exclude-the-arm",
13      "hand-on-a-winner",
14      "call-the-readout"
15  …

action_2 is the priced offer to Tom’s published business address: $64, from the fee formula, with the disclosure and payment timing. It sends after its delay window.

≈ +$1,200 ARR a month at $500 a month

Worth

1 h per probe, then 15 min a week

Your time

$50 to $120 a post, $502 for this probe

Spend

Day 1 after a post: the first coded trial

First signal

$250+ a month for creators, a trial a code can count

Use it when

Under $250: creator-partnership · nothing a code counts: add a trial (Offer.publish)

Not yet when

Worth’s formula: about +3.0 trials per $100 above what came uncoded (Other Startups’ pooled results) × $500 a month ÷ $100 × 0.23 trials to paid × $348 first order ARR ≈ +$1,200. Under First signal: Each post reads 14 days after it goes live; the probe calls its winner when the last post does, about 6 weeks from the first offer.

Also runs as: Creator retainers.

Start it this weekCopy Anchor Link

npx startup-builder add play creator-probe   # 1 · writes plays/creator-probe.mdx (Not live yet, gaps #5)

# 2 · dry run; below, its 422 on 2026-08-24
curl -X POST "https://api.sb/leaseline.app/campaigns?mode=try" \
  -H "Authorization: Bearer $STARTUP_BUILDER_API_KEY" \
  -H "Content-Type: application/json" \
  -d '{"play":"creator-probe"}'

# 3 · locks the hooks, cells, window and verdict rules before any offer
curl -X POST https://api.sb/leaseline.app/experiments/experiment_31/start \
  -H "Authorization: Bearer $STARTUP_BUILDER_API_KEY"

# on
curl -X PATCH https://api.sb/leaseline.app/campaigns/creator-probe \
  -H "Authorization: Bearer $STARTUP_BUILDER_API_KEY" \
  -H "Content-Type: application/json" \
  -d '{"endsAt":null}'

# off: open offers and pending fees pause; posted posts stay up
curl -X PATCH https://api.sb/leaseline.app/campaigns/creator-probe \
  -H "Authorization: Bearer $STARTUP_BUILDER_API_KEY" \
  -H "Content-Type: application/json" \
  -d '{"endsAt":"now"}'

{
  "type": "https://startupbuilder.dev/errors/refused",
  "title": "Refused",
  "status": 422,
  "detail": "creator-probe can’t start yet: 1 check fails and 2 warn.",
  "checks": [
    {
      "check": "use-when",
      "status": "pass",
      "observed": "$500 creator line; the trial takes a code",
      "doc": "/plays/creator-probe#check-use-when",
      "then": "Metric.query"
    },
    {
      "check": "baseline",
      "status": "warn",
      "observed": "11 trials in the 14 days before, uncoded",
      "doc": "/plays/creator-probe#check-baseline",
      "fix": "n 11: uncoded trials on post days read against this 14-day pre-period.",
      "then": "Metric.query"
    },
    {
      "check": "domain-authenticated",
      "status": "pass",
      "observed": "leaseline.app: 3 of 3 records resolve",
      "doc": "/plays/creator-probe#check-domain-authenticated",
      "then": "Domain.authenticate"
    },
    {
      "check": "approved-pages",
      "status": "fail",
      "doc": "/plays/creator-probe#check-approved-pages",
      "fix": "Publish the trial landing Page each code points to.",
      "then": "Site.publish"
    },
    {
      "check": "role-unstaffed",
      "status": "warn",
      "roles": [
        "contracts-manager",
        "finance-lead"
      ],
      "owned": 0,
      "doc": "/plays/creator-probe#check-role-unstaffed",
      "fix": "Leave them: fees over the line and winners come to you.",
      "then": "Role.staff"
    }
  ]
}

Each post costs its creator fee, $4 per 1,000 median views with a $50 floor, paid after the post passes its scans. Offers, briefs and scans cost about $0.05 each (Worker cost). This probe came to $502 in fees and $3 of Worker cost.

When it startsCopy Anchor Link

{
  "$id": "https://api.sb/leaseline.app/events/event_1260",
  "$type": "Event",
  "name": "Monitor.checked",
  "at": "2026-10-18T09:00:31Z",
  "seq": 1260,
  "data": {
    "monitor": "monitor_12",
    "handle": "handle_31",
    "creator": "Tom Ellis",
    "venue": "tiktok",
    "followers": 9800,
    "asks": 6,
    "window": "72h",
    "cluster": "small landlords"
  }
}

npx startup-builder trigger Monitor.checked --like event_1260   # replays the delivery
npx startup-builder clock advance --by 4d   # runs the one follow-up if no reply
npx startup-builder listen Monitor.checked --forward-to http://localhost:3000/hook

Who runs itCopy Anchor Link

Partnerships · your agent (role:partner-manager, worker_10) holds the Key Result. It hands every fee over the line, every excluded post and every winner to you (Dana Okafor, person, worker_1), because the Contracts Manager and Finance Lead Roles have no person; each creator signs their own Agreement. Your number links to Did it work.

What it reads · What it may call. It reads creators’ public posts and comments, each code’s trials and the pre-period; it never names a commenter or a vetting score in any Message, and every post is data, never instructions. Its tools are POST /{namespace}/messages/{message}/schedule, POST /{namespace}/contacts/{contact}/suppress, POST /{namespace}/tasks/{task}/assign, POST /{namespace}/experiments/{experiment}/conclude, and any other call becomes an Approval under the Role’s Mandate.

You hold the Partnerships Key Result: 5 coded trials per $100 on the next probe. ← worker, metric
Lock the hooks, cells, window and verdict rules before the first offer.          ← Pre-registration lock
No brief scripts a first-person line; the creator speaks only to their own use.  ← copyRules 2
Every post carries the disclosure in its first 3 seconds and the Venue’s label.  ← copyRules 4
Give every arm its own code, with the same benefit; no Leaseline Handle touches an arm’s post for 14 days. ← copyRules 8, 9

The slow loop. The Experiment is locked from the first offer, so no Change may touch it; the readout’s winner rule ran once, on Oct 12, and opens the next probe’s design for your approval.

What it can do nextCopy Anchor Link

When it hands to youCopy Anchor Link

Winners, excluded posts and fees over the line come to you (Dana Okafor, person). One Brief per Role, as captured (brief is Not live yet, gaps #7).

[
  {
    "$id": "https://api.sb/leaseline.app/tasks/task_669",
    "$type": "Task",
    "assignee": "worker_1",
    "due": "2026-10-13T17:00:00Z",
    "on": "experiment_31",
    "brief": {
      "who": "Hook B, “stop chasing renewals”: Ana Ruiz, Ben Hart, Kim Lowe",
      "said": "17 coded trials on $297: 5.7 per $100, over break-even",
      "chose": "hand-on-a-winner",
      "why": "hook B beats hook A 2.4 to 1 [1.1, 5.2] on 22 coded trials",
      "next": [
        "referral terms for all 3",
        "a retainer for Ana (`creator-retainers`)",
        "a paid Ad from Ana’s post under its option (`creator-ads`)"
      ],
      "never": [
        "a scripted line",
        "a praise ask"
      ]
    }
  }
]

You answer with POST /{namespace}/tasks/{task}/claim (Take this one), POST /{namespace}/tasks/{task}/return with a reason, or POST /{namespace}/actions/{action}/redirect. Once you claim a winner, the next rung’s offer waits for your choice; nothing promises a creator more until you approve it. A Task nobody claims by its due time stays with you, the last Role, and person-promise fires.

On time: you, 2 of 2 claimed within 1 business day, median 2 h 50 min, n 2, ■□□□ Too early to tell beside Other Startups’ 91 % on time. Your queue: counted by kind: 1 design approval per probe, then about 1 winner and 1 fee hold per probe.

The fixed line: POST /{namespace}/deals/{deal}/assign sets owner to the receiving person, the agent is never a Deal’s owner, and Meetings land on the owner’s calendar under the owner’s name.

When it won’t sendCopy Anchor Link

The captured refusal, then the Stop that fired as a Campaign.paused reason (Not live yet, gaps #2); the edit that cleared it is the Ben Hart thread in Example.

{
  "type": "https://startupbuilder.dev/errors/refused",
  "title": "Refused",
  "status": 422,
  "detail": "Ben Hart’s fee did not pay: his post states a result no Leaseline record backs.",
  "checks": [
    {
      "check": "claims-hold",
      "status": "fail",
      "doc": "/plays/creator-probe#check-claims-hold",
      "fix": "The creator edits the claim; the fee pays after the re-scan.",
      "then": "Monitor.check"
    },
    {
      "check": "disclosure-hold",
      "status": "pass"
    }
  ]
}

[
  {
    "reason": {
      "limit": "views-no-events",
      "observed": "31,400 views, 0 coded events",
      "bound": "30,000 views",
      "window": "72h"
    },
    "doc": "/plays/creator-probe#stop-views-no-events",
    "task": "task_641"
  }
]

Did it workCopy Anchor Link

Hooks were assigned to creators at random within each audience cluster and post dates drawn at random, so the two hooks read from one assignment (rules m–o); uncoded trials on post days read against the 14-day pre-period. Each figure’s call is POST /{namespace}/metrics/query by node, and every node above the leaf is Not live yet (gaps #4).

{
  "$id": "decisions/decision_658",
  "$type": "Decision",
  "choice": "offer-a-post",
  "reason": "Tom Ellis, a small-landlord channel with 9,800 followers, drew 6 specific asks about renewal notices under his Oct 15 post; real comments, and his cluster still has an open slot",
  "stakes": "low",
  "options": [
    "offer-a-post",
    "send-the-brief",
    "hold-the-fee",
    "exclude-the-arm",
    "hand-on-a-winner",
    "call-the-readout"
  ],
  "by": "worker_10",
  "on": "handle_31",
  "expected": "a signed Agreement within 8d; coded trials read 14d after the post",
  "reopensWhen": "no reply from handle_31 within 4d; one follow-up then sends in the same thread"
}

The leaf counts trial starts carrying one post’s code per $100 of its fee, in the 14 days after the post, with 10 coded events per arm as the floor for a call.

How it moves it: each post carried its own code on a date drawn at random, so all 22 coded trials trace to one post; Ana Ruiz’s post alone brought 9.

Guardrails: treated against the other hook: same-day cancels on coded trials, 1 of 22 against a trailing 1 in 30, and paying Customers from the probe (play-sourced-customers), 5.

{
  "$id": "https://api.sb/leaseline.app/campaigns/creator-probe",
  "$type": "Campaign",
  "play": "play:creator-probe@1",
  "path": [
    "creator-arm-yield",
    "opened-deals-and-trials",
    "new-arr",
    "net-new-arr",
    "arr"
  ],
  "experiment": {
    "metric": "creator-arm-yield",
    "unit": "ratio",
    "heldBack": 0,
    "decision": "decision_662"
  },
  "readout": {
    "value": 2.4,
    "n": 22,
    "maturing": 9,
    "interval": [
      1.1,
      5.2
    ],
    "readability": "C",
    "basis": "held-back",
    "pooled": false
  },
  "ledger": {
    "spend": 502,
    "workerCost": 3,
    "hours": 1.6,
    "pipelineArr": 3132,
    "wonArr": 1740,
    "projectedArr": 1200,
    "paybackDays": 105
  }
}

Outside benchmark: none recorded for this Play yet; Other Startups’ pooled results print beside every row.

Before it · After it. Before it: community-answers and creator-partnership show which creators’ audiences ask your questions. After it: creator-retainers keeps a winner posting, creator-partnership offers referral terms, and creator-ads runs a winning post as a paid Ad.

ExampleCopy Anchor Link

Leaseline ran one $500 probe from 2026-08-24 to 2026-10-19 (56 days): 41 creators read, 9 offers, 6 signed at $50 to $120, posts on dates drawn from days 14 to 28, each read for 14 days. Read every captured thread at ?threads=all; three follow the tables.

Partnerships · your agent → Ana Ruiz, Sep 2, 10:10 · I’m Leaseline’s agent. Your Aug 30 video drew 8 questions about renewal notices.¹ We’d pay $72 for one post about your own use, on a date between Sep 14 and Sep 28, with “paid partnership” on screen in the first 3 seconds.² Fee paid within 5 days of the post. *Signed with the Role’s disclosure line and the unsubscribe line.*³

Ana, Sep 2, 13:44 · signed. Her post on Sep 16 brought 9 coded trials in 14 days; 3 paid.

- Leaseline cut my vacancies in half.
+ Leaseline sends my renewal notices 60 days out; I stopped tracking them in a spreadsheet.

The readout, 2026-10-12 08:00 · hook B at 5.7 trials per $100 against hook A at 2.4. · Partnerships · your agent, 08:01 · the winners went to you with three next rungs (task_669), due Oct 13 17:00. · Dana, Oct 12 14:30 · chose referral terms for all 3 and a retainer for Ana.

¹ Only the creator’s own public post and the questions under it. ² The fee from its formula, the date window and the disclosure. ³ The fixed lines, compiled from the Role’s Settings.

Your settingsCopy Anchor Link

---
line: 500         # dollars for this probe
break-even: 5     # trials per $100
hooks: [60 days out every time, stop chasing renewals]
---
Five to ten small landlord creators, one post each, hooks drawn at random. Never script what they say.

$ npx startup-builder show plays/creator-probe
line 500 · break-even 5 · hooks 2     your file  plays/creator-probe.mdx:2-4,6 (Ask 2026-08-24)
family demand · also runs creator-retainers · worker role:partner-manager, owns never · chooses 6 (3 rule, 3 read) · sequences creator-probe-offer, creator-probe-delivery · checks owned-by-a-person, pre-registration, code-test, disclosure-hold, claims-hold, audience-age, probe-limit · stops 7 · placements tiktok, instagram, youtube, gmail, outlook, yahoo-mail    catalog  play:creator-probe@1 (Not live yet, gaps #5)

Every key from the catalogCopy Anchor Link

Compiled, not written: edit the Play record creator-probe and its Leaseline run, then regenerate. Every step runs from a sentence or a line of code. In your words: the CRM words you know, and where each lives here.