Moment outreach

# Not live yet (gaps #2)
curl -X POST "https://api.sb/leaseline.app/campaigns?mode=try" \
  -H "Authorization: Bearer $STARTUP_BUILDER_API_KEY" \
  -H "Content-Type: application/json" \
  -d '{"play":"moment-outreach"}'

 1import { $ } from 'startup-builder'
 2
 3return await $.Campaign.create({ play: 'moment-outreach' }, { mode: 'try' })   // dry run on the day-0 Startup, 2026-08-24 · Not live yet, gaps #2

npx startup-builder do Campaign.create --json '{"play":"moment-outreach"}' --try   # Not live yet (gaps #2)

{
  "name": "do",
  "arguments": {
    "code": "return await $.Campaign.create({ play: 'moment-outreach' }, { mode: 'try' })   // dry run on the day-0 Startup, 2026-08-24 · Not live yet, gaps #2",
    "mode": "try"
  }
}

 1{
 2  "type": "https://startupbuilder.dev/errors/refused",
 3  "title": "Refused",
 4  "status": 422,
 5  "detail": "moment-outreach can’t start yet: 2 checks fail and 1 warns.",
 6  "checks": [
 7    {
 8      "check": "use-when",
 9      "status": "pass",
10      "observed": "46 windows a week on your List across 3 Triggers",
11      "doc": "/plays/moment-outreach#check-use-when",
12      "fix": "Keep 3 Triggers on; switch on more only once each has a ready output.",
13      "then": "Metric.query"
14    },
15  …

curl "https://api.sb/leaseline.app/events?where=name%20in%20(%22Organization.appointed%22%2C%20%22Organization.reposted%22%2C%20%22Organization.announced%22%2C%20%22Organization.published%22%2C%20%22Organization.filed%22%2C%20%22Company.filed%22%2C%20%22Company.funded%22%2C%20%22Opening.published%22%2C%20%22Organization.repriced%22%2C%20%22Organization.degraded%22%2C%20%22Organization.deprecated%22%2C%20%22Visit.recorded%22%2C%20%22Monitor.checked%22%2C%20%22Organization.adopted%22%2C%20%22Organization.downsized%22%2C%20%22Organization.disrupted%22%2C%20%22Organization.acquired%22)&limit=1" \
  -H "Authorization: Bearer $STARTUP_BUILDER_API_KEY"

# Not live yet (gaps #7)
curl -X POST "https://api.sb/leaseline.app/triggers/fire?mode=try" \
  -H "Authorization: Bearer $STARTUP_BUILDER_API_KEY" \
  -H "Content-Type: application/json" \
  -d '{"like":"event_1312"}'

# Not live yet (gaps #7)
curl "https://api.sb/leaseline.app/decisions?where=on%20%3D%20%22prospect_31%22" \
  -H "Authorization: Bearer $STARTUP_BUILDER_API_KEY"

# Not live yet (gaps #7)
curl "https://api.sb/leaseline.app/actions?where=on%20%3D%20%22prospect_31%22" \
  -H "Authorization: Bearer $STARTUP_BUILDER_API_KEY"

 1import { $ } from 'startup-builder'
 2
 3const { events: [last] } = await $.Event.list({ where: 'name in ("Organization.appointed", "Organization.reposted", "Organization.announced", "Organization.published", "Organization.filed", "Company.filed", "Company.funded", "Opening.published", "Organization.repriced", "Organization.degraded", "Organization.deprecated", "Visit.recorded", "Monitor.checked", "Organization.adopted", "Organization.downsized", "Organization.disrupted", "Organization.acquired")', limit: 1 })   // { play } compiled to this Play’s Trigger Events
 4const { subject } = await $.Trigger.fire({ like: last.$id }, { mode: 'try' })   // the same Event again, in try mode · Not live yet, gaps #7
 5const { decisions: [decision] } = await $.Decision.list({ where: `on = "${subject}"` })   // what it chose, and why · Not live yet, gaps #7
 6const { actions } = await $.Action.list({ where: `on = "${subject}"` })   // what it did, with its checks · Not live yet, gaps #7
 7return { decision, actions }

npx startup-builder do Event.list --json '{"where":"name in (\"Organization.appointed\", \"Organization.reposted\", \"Organization.announced\", \"Organization.published\", \"Organization.filed\", \"Company.filed\", \"Company.funded\", \"Opening.published\", \"Organization.repriced\", \"Organization.degraded\", \"Organization.deprecated\", \"Visit.recorded\", \"Monitor.checked\", \"Organization.adopted\", \"Organization.downsized\", \"Organization.disrupted\", \"Organization.acquired\")","limit":1}'
npx startup-builder do Trigger.fire --json '{"like":"event_1312"}' --try   # Not live yet (gaps #7)
npx startup-builder do Decision.list --json '{"where":"on = \"prospect_31\""}'   # Not live yet (gaps #7)
npx startup-builder do Action.list --json '{"where":"on = \"prospect_31\""}'   # Not live yet (gaps #7)

{
  "name": "do",
  "arguments": {
    "code": "const { events: [last] } = await $.Event.list({ where: 'name in (\"Organization.appointed\", \"Organization.reposted\", \"Organization.announced\", \"Organization.published\", \"Organization.filed\", \"Company.filed\", \"Company.funded\", \"Opening.published\", \"Organization.repriced\", \"Organization.degraded\", \"Organization.deprecated\", \"Visit.recorded\", \"Monitor.checked\", \"Organization.adopted\", \"Organization.downsized\", \"Organization.disrupted\", \"Organization.acquired\")', limit: 1 })   // { play } compiled to this Play’s Trigger Events\nconst { subject } = await $.Trigger.fire({ like: last.$id }, { mode: 'try' })   // the same Event again, in try mode · Not live yet, gaps #7\nconst { decisions: [decision] } = await $.Decision.list({ where: `on = \"${subject}\"` })   // what it chose, and why · Not live yet, gaps #7\nconst { actions } = await $.Action.list({ where: `on = \"${subject}\"` })   // what it did, with its checks · Not live yet, gaps #7\nreturn { decision, actions }",
    "mode": "try"
  }
}

 1{
 2  "decision": {
 3    "$id": "https://api.sb/leaseline.app/decisions/decision_418",
 4    "$type": "Decision",
 5    "choice": "send-three-touch",
 6    "reason": "Greystone Residential named a new VP of Operations on Oct 6 (their own news page); 1,200 units is over the 120-unit line, and the renewal-notice output was refreshed Oct 13",
 7    "stakes": "low",
 8    "options": [
 9      "send-three-touch",
10      "from-your-mailbox",
11      "publish-the-page",
12      "remedy-note",
13      "not-now"
14    ],
15  …

action_4 is touch 1, held 15 minutes so you can stop it (Who runs it). action_5 is touch 2 on day 3, re-checked for holds before it sends; any reply ends both.

≈ +$1,300 ARR a month at 100

Worth

45 min week 1, then 20 a week

Your time

$0.10 per window, ~$10 a month at 100

Spend

Day 17: first qualified reply

First signal

20+ windows a week, a ready output for each Trigger

Use it when

Under 20 a week: cold-email · no ready output: draft one (Content.draft)

Not yet when

Worth’s formula: about +4.1 qualified replies per 100 windows (Other Startups’ results; your own read is too early) × 100 windows a month × 0.45 replies to Deals opened × 0.30 Deals to paid × $2,393 first order ARR ≈ +$1,320. Under First signal: With 1 window in 10 held back at 100 a month, about 16 weeks to tell a +4 lift (14 to read, 2 to mature); 90 days can tell only +6.5 or more.

Runs inside: Cold email, as one of its options; this page keeps its own record and URL.

Start it this weekCopy Anchor Link

npx startup-builder add play moment-outreach   # 1 · writes plays/moment-outreach.mdx (Not live yet, gaps #5)

# 2 · dry run; below, its 422 on the day-0 Startup (--env test, clock at 2026-08-24)
curl -X POST "https://api.sb/leaseline.app/campaigns?mode=try" \
  -H "Authorization: Bearer $STARTUP_BUILDER_API_KEY" \
  -H "Content-Type: application/json" \
  -d '{"play":"moment-outreach"}'

# 3 · keep it, at You approve each one
curl -X POST https://api.sb/leaseline.app/campaigns \
  -H "Authorization: Bearer $STARTUP_BUILDER_API_KEY" \
  -H "Content-Type: application/json" \
  -d '{"play":"moment-outreach"}'

# on
curl -X POST https://api.sb/leaseline.app/processes/outbound/enable \
  -H "Authorization: Bearer $STARTUP_BUILDER_API_KEY"

# off: every open window parks; nothing queued sends
curl -X POST https://api.sb/leaseline.app/processes/outbound/pause \
  -H "Authorization: Bearer $STARTUP_BUILDER_API_KEY"

{
  "type": "https://startupbuilder.dev/errors/refused",
  "title": "Refused",
  "status": 422,
  "detail": "moment-outreach can’t start yet: 2 checks fail and 1 warns.",
  "checks": [
    {
      "check": "use-when",
      "status": "pass",
      "observed": "46 windows a week on your List across 3 Triggers",
      "doc": "/plays/moment-outreach#check-use-when",
      "fix": "Keep 3 Triggers on; switch on more only once each has a ready output.",
      "then": "Metric.query"
    },
    {
      "check": "baseline",
      "status": "pass",
      "observed": "1.9 qualified replies per 100 delivered cold first touches, n 410 in 90 days",
      "doc": "/plays/moment-outreach#check-baseline",
      "fix": "Nothing to do: Before reads your last 90 days of cold first touches.",
      "then": "Metric.query"
    },
    {
      "check": "domain-authenticated",
      "status": "fail",
      "doc": "/plays/moment-outreach#check-domain-authenticated",
      "fix": "Add the 3 DNS records shown for go.leaseline.app; it passes once they resolve.",
      "then": "Domain.authenticate"
    },
    {
      "check": "mailbox-warm",
      "status": "fail",
      "observed": "3 Mailboxes, day 0 of 14",
      "doc": "/plays/moment-outreach#check-mailbox-warm",
      "fix": "Wait for the warm-up to finish on Sep 7; drafts queue for you meanwhile.",
      "then": "Mailbox.warm"
    },
    {
      "check": "owned-by-a-person",
      "status": "pass",
      "observed": "4 companies on your List have a person owner, you",
      "doc": "/plays/moment-outreach#check-owned-by-a-person",
      "fix": "Nothing to do: their windows draft into your queue instead of sending.",
      "then": "Task.assign"
    },
    {
      "check": "fact-check",
      "status": "pass",
      "observed": "3 ready outputs, 41 sourced Facts",
      "doc": "/plays/moment-outreach#check-fact-check",
      "fix": "Nothing to do: every delta line must cite one of the 41 Facts.",
      "then": "Content.draft"
    },
    {
      "check": "customer-collision",
      "status": "pass",
      "observed": "2 Customers on the List, removed",
      "doc": "/plays/moment-outreach#check-customer-collision",
      "fix": "Nothing to do: Customers leave the List and go to their CSM.",
      "then": "Lead.assign"
    },
    {
      "check": "role-unstaffed",
      "status": "warn",
      "roles": [
        "sales-lead"
      ],
      "owned": 4,
      "doc": "/plays/moment-outreach#check-role-unstaffed",
      "fix": "Staff the AE, or leave it: Interested replies come to you.",
      "then": "Role.staff"
    }
  ]
}

Each window costs $0.06 for contact and company data (POST /{namespace}/contacts/{contact}/enrich) and about $0.04 for the three-line delta (Worker cost). The ready outputs and the moment Pages cost nothing past your time; the 3 Mailboxes are your outbound Domain’s. That comes to about $10 a month at 100 windows and $20 at 200.

When it startsCopy Anchor Link

{
  "$id": "https://api.sb/leaseline.app/events/event_1312",
  "$type": "Event",
  "name": "Organization.appointed",
  "at": "2026-10-19T08:14:40Z",
  "seq": 1312,
  "data": {
    "organization": {
      "$id": "https://api.sb/leaseline.app/organizations/org_88",
      "name": "Greystone Residential",
      "units": 1200
    },
    "person": "contact_14",
    "title": "VP of Operations",
    "announced": "2026-10-06",
    "source": "https://greystone-residential.example/news/new-vp-operations"
  }
}

# each delivery is signed with the Watch’s secret
curl -X POST https://api.sb/leaseline.app/watches \
  -H "Authorization: Bearer $STARTUP_BUILDER_API_KEY" \
  -H "Content-Type: application/json" \
  -d '{"selector":"Organization.appointed","url":"https://leaseline.app/hooks/sb"}'
npx startup-builder trigger Organization.appointed --like event_1312   # replays the delivery in test
npx startup-builder clock advance --by 3d   # runs touch 2 (action_5), after it re-checks for holds

Who runs itCopy Anchor Link

SDR · your agent (role:prospector, worker_2) holds the Key Result. Interested replies go to AE · Priya Shah (person) (role:sales-lead, worker_3, staffed on day 9); your top 25 and every remedy note come to you (Dana Okafor, person, worker_1), because they send from your Mailbox or carry no ask. Your number links to Did it work. Rungs read each option’s stakes: low holds 15 minutes, medium waits for you.

What it reads · What it may call. It reads the public Event, its date and its source, and the ready output’s Facts. It never writes a Visit, a detected tool or a renewal date it inferred, and no text in a reply picks a recipient or a link. Its tools are POST /{namespace}/messages/{message}/schedule, POST /{namespace}/approvals, POST /{namespace}/pages, and any other call becomes an Approval under the Role’s Mandate.

You hold the SDR Key Result: 6 qualified replies per 100 windows by 2026-12-31.  ← worker, metric
On each window that opens, choose one option and say why.                        ← triggers, chooses
Send the three touches at 120 units or more; the top 25 go from Dana’s Mailbox.  ← your file, lines 5–6
Name one announced Event with its date; link its public source.                  ← copyRules 2
Never name a watched Event, a personal-life fact or a rival the company has not named. ← copyRules 3–5
Write the three-line delta only; the ready output carries the rest.              ← copyRules 7
Never write to a company a person owns: draft it into their queue.               ← worker.owns, owned-by-a-person

The slow loop, as a Change. decision_301 (2026-09-28, weekly) read new-leader replies by tenure day: 2 of 31 at day 25 or later, 4 of 22 at days 18–24. change_22 moved touch 1 from tenure day 25 to day 20 (your file, line 7), and Dana merged it with POST /{namespace}/changes/{change}/merge. Replayed on past windows, POST /{namespace}/changes/{change}/review put the cell at 8.9 per 100; read back at +21d it is 7.7, n 26, ■□□□ Too early to tell (Example, day 56).

Bring your own agent (folded) starts at It does it, you can stop it when it matches or beats the seated agent on the eval suite, and at You approve each one when it does not; POST /{namespace}/roles/{role}/staff seats it.

npx startup-builder eval --scenario moment-outreach-212 --agent "claude -p" --seat prospector   # seated: 6.6 per 100, 0 watched-Event leaks, $0.10 a window · yours: 6.1, 1 leak → You approve each one

What it can do nextCopy Anchor Link

When it hands to youCopy Anchor Link

Interested replies go to AE · Priya Shah (person); your top 25 and remedy notes come to you, and before day 9 every Interested reply did. One Brief per Role, as captured, then the Approval (brief, draft, route and checks are Not live yet, gaps #7).

[
  {
    "$id": "https://api.sb/leaseline.app/tasks/task_244",
    "$type": "Task",
    "assignee": "worker_3",
    "due": "2026-10-15T15:12:00Z",
    "on": "lead_47",
    "brief": {
      "who": "Owen Hale, Director of Operations, Larkfield Communities (640 units)",
      "said": "This is timely. Can we look at renewals across our 3 regions?",
      "chose": "send-three-touch",
      "why": "new-leader window, day 22; over the 120-unit line",
      "event": "Organization.appointed, announced 2026-09-23",
      "never": [
        "a price beyond the list",
        "a discount",
        "the date we noticed them"
      ]
    }
  },
  {
    "$id": "https://api.sb/leaseline.app/approvals/approval_57",
    "$type": "Approval",
    "verdict": null,
    "deadline": "2026-10-20T13:00:00Z",
    "draft": "Hi Rosa, Harborview reposted its leasing coordinator role on Oct 14…",
    "route": "from-your-mailbox",
    "checks": [
      {
        "check": "fact-check",
        "status": "pass"
      },
      {
        "check": "hold",
        "status": "pass"
      }
    ]
  }
]

Each receiver answers with POST /{namespace}/tasks/{task}/claim (Take this one), POST /{namespace}/tasks/{task}/return with a reason, POST /{namespace}/actions/{action}/redirect, POST /{namespace}/approvals/{approval}/approve or POST /{namespace}/approvals/{approval}/refuse, each a one-call window. An Approval unanswered by its deadline expires and never sends, because a late touch misses the window (late-send). Once a person claims, the agent’s pending touches to that company cancel with claimedByPerson (Not live yet, gaps #7). A Task nobody claims by its due time goes up a Role through POST /{namespace}/tasks/{task}/escalate (AE to you), and person-promise fires.

On time: AE · Priya Shah, 5 of 5 claimed within 60 min, median 21 min, n 5, ■□□□ Too early to tell beside Other Startups’ 92 % on time; you, 23 of 24 approvals inside their deadline, median 46 min, n 24 (1 expired). Your queue: counted by kind: in week 3, 31 approvals and 1 hand-off; after the promotion, about 6 approvals (your top 25) and 1 hand-off a week.

The fixed line: POST /{namespace}/deals/{deal}/assign sets owner to the receiving person, the agent is never a Deal’s owner, and Meetings land on the owner’s calendar under the owner’s name.

When it won’t sendCopy Anchor Link

The captured refusal, then the Stop that fired as a Campaign.paused reason (Not live yet, gaps #2); the rewrite that sent is the Pinecrest thread in Example.

{
  "type": "https://startupbuilder.dev/errors/refused",
  "title": "Refused",
  "status": 422,
  "detail": "Touch 1 to Pinecrest Management did not send: one line states a figure no Fact backs.",
  "checks": [
    {
      "check": "fact-check",
      "status": "fail",
      "doc": "/plays/moment-outreach#check-fact-check",
      "fix": "Cut the claim, or name the Fact that backs it.",
      "then": "Content.draft"
    },
    {
      "check": "hold",
      "status": "pass"
    }
  ]
}

[
  {
    "reason": {
      "limit": "wrong-event",
      "observed": "6 % (3 of 50)",
      "bound": "5 %",
      "window": "the monthly hand check, Sep 30"
    },
    "doc": "/plays/moment-outreach#stop-wrong-event",
    "task": "task_219"
  }
]

Did it workCopy Anchor Link

One window in 10 is held back at random and gets no touch; both halves are read from that assignment (rules m–o). A held-back window counts a qualified reply when anyone at the company writes in from any source. Each figure’s call is POST /{namespace}/metrics/query by node and by arm; the parent field and every node above the leaf are Not live yet (gaps #4).

{
  "$id": "decisions/decision_418",
  "$type": "Decision",
  "choice": "send-three-touch",
  "reason": "Greystone Residential named a new VP of Operations on Oct 6 (their own news page); 1,200 units is over the 120-unit line, and the renewal-notice output was refreshed Oct 13",
  "stakes": "low",
  "options": [
    "send-three-touch",
    "from-your-mailbox",
    "publish-the-page",
    "remedy-note",
    "not-now"
  ],
  "by": "worker_2",
  "on": "prospect_31",
  "expected": "a qualified reply from contact_14 within 30d of touch 1",
  "reopensWhen": "no inbound Message.created from contact_14 within 30d of touch 1, and a new announced Event on org_88"
}

The leaf counts qualified replies (Interested, a referral, an objection, or Not now with a date) per 100 windows assigned, once per window, over 30 days from touch 1. The Experiment runs to 200 matured windows a Trigger in the agent half; at 152 it runs on.

How it moves it: touch 1 landed a median 2 days after a dated announcement, against 23 days for your cold first touches before (trigger-reply-rate by age bucket).

Guardrails: treated against held back: positive-reply-rate across all outreach, 3.1 against 2.8 per 100, and shadow complaints on touch 2, 0.3 % against a 2 % Stop.

{
  "$id": "https://api.sb/leaseline.app/campaigns/moment-outreach",
  "$type": "Campaign",
  "play": "play:moment-outreach@1",
  "path": [
    "trigger-reply-rate",
    "new-leads",
    "new-arr",
    "net-new-arr",
    "arr"
  ],
  "experiment": {
    "metric": "trigger-reply-rate",
    "unit": "per-100",
    "heldBack": 23,
    "decision": null
  },
  "readout": {
    "value": 6.6,
    "n": 169,
    "maturing": 39,
    "interval": [
      -1.9,
      11.8
    ],
    "readability": "inadmissible",
    "basis": "held-back",
    "pooled": false
  },
  "ledger": {
    "spend": 21,
    "workerCost": 8,
    "hours": 3.4,
    "pipelineArr": 7179,
    "wonArr": 2740,
    "projectedArr": 1320,
    "paybackDays": 6
  }
}

Outside benchmark: 3.3 % to 6.8 % total reply rate for cold Sequences of 1 to 3 Messages (an email-finder vendor’s annual cold email report, 2025 data, correlational).

Before it · After it. Before it: account-visits and objection-watch add companies to the List the Monitors watch. After it: Interested replies reach instant-response’s hand-off to the AE, lead-nurture hears Lead.nurtured from Not now, and a bounce that reads as a job change goes to champion-follow. It runs inside cold-email, which takes every company with no open window.

ExampleCopy Anchor Link

Leaseline ran it from 2026-08-24 to 2026-10-19 (56 days); touches started on day 14, once the Mailboxes warmed. 264 windows opened: 33 went to Not now, and 231 were assigned at random, 23 held back and 208 sent. 152 sent windows have matured. Read every captured thread at ?threads=all; three follow the tables.

Leaseline → Owen Hale, Larkfield Communities, Oct 15, 09:40 · Larkfield named you Director of Operations on Sep 23 (your news page).¹ Around a new ops lead’s first month, renewal notices across regions tend to land on that desk.² Three things teams your size do first: one owner per region, notices 60 days out, and one report for the owners. Does that match what you’re seeing?³ *Signed with the Role’s disclosure line and the stop line.*⁴

Owen, 14:12 · “This is timely. Can we look at renewals across our 3 regions?” The Brief reached Priya at 14:13; she booked Thursday 15:00 with POST /{namespace}/meetings/book at 14:34 (When it hands to you).

- Most firms your size lose 3 renewals a month to late notices.
+ Notices sent 60 days out are the step most often late at 300 to 800 units (Fact f-12, from our renewal-timing output).

Willow & Main, 2026-10-02 10:05 · “Does this connect to our accounting system?” · Leaseline, 10:07 · *Thanks for asking. Priya, our account lead, handles integrations and replies by 11:07 today.*⁵ The Brief went to Priya (task_233); she claimed it at 10:31 and answered at 10:58.

¹ One announced Event, with its date and public source. ² The delta: the agent’s three lines; the ready output carries the rest. ³ One question, no ask yet; the ask is touch 3. ⁴ The fixed signature and stop lines, compiled from the Role’s Settings. ⁵ The routed line, compiled from the Role’s Settings.

Your settingsCopy Anchor Link

---
holdout: 0.1      # 1 window in 10 gets no touch
triggers: [new-leader, stale-job-post, alternative-price-rise]
---
Over 120 units, send the three touches and book our AE.
Our top 25 accounts go from Dana’s Mailbox.
New leaders: touch 1 on tenure day 20.

$ npx startup-builder show plays/moment-outreach
holdout 0.1 · triggers 3 of 17 · size line 120 units · top 25 from your Mailbox · tenure day 20     your file  plays/moment-outreach.mdx:2,3,5,6,7 (Ask 2026-08-24; line 7 by change_22, 2026-09-28)
family outreach · process outbound · worker role:prospector, owns never · chooses 5 (2 rule, 3 read) · sequences moment-three-touch, moment-three-touch-founder, moment-remedy · approval delay-window · checks owned-by-a-person, hold, mailbox-warm, fact-check, customer-collision, market-hold, stale-output, late-send, capacity-drop · stops 8 · runs inside cold-email    catalog  play:moment-outreach@1 (Not live yet, gaps #5)

Every key from the catalogCopy Anchor Link

Compiled, not written: edit the Play record moment-outreach and its Leaseline run, then regenerate. Every step runs from a sentence or a line of code. In your words: the CRM words you know, and where each lives here.