Signal expansion

npx startup-builder add play signal-expansion   # 1 · writes plays/signal-expansion.mdx (Not live yet, gaps #5)

# 2 · dry run; below, its 422 on 2026-08-24
curl -X POST "https://api.sb/leaseline.app/campaigns?mode=try" \
  -H "Authorization: Bearer $STARTUP_BUILDER_API_KEY" \
  -H "Content-Type: application/json" \
  -d '{"play":"signal-expansion"}'

# 3 · keep it, at You approve each one
curl -X POST https://api.sb/leaseline.app/campaigns \
  -H "Authorization: Bearer $STARTUP_BUILDER_API_KEY" \
  -H "Content-Type: application/json" \
  -d '{"play":"signal-expansion"}'

# on
curl -X PATCH https://api.sb/leaseline.app/campaigns/signal-expansion \
  -H "Authorization: Bearer $STARTUP_BUILDER_API_KEY" \
  -H "Content-Type: application/json" \
  -d '{"endsAt":null}'

# off: no seat note sends; the successor prompt keeps showing
curl -X PATCH https://api.sb/leaseline.app/campaigns/signal-expansion \
  -H "Authorization: Bearer $STARTUP_BUILDER_API_KEY" \
  -H "Content-Type: application/json" \
  -d '{"endsAt":"now"}'

{
  "$id": "https://api.sb/leaseline.app/events/event_1311",
  "$type": "Event",
  "name": "Tenant.invited",
  "at": "2026-10-19T13:12:44Z",
  "seq": 1311,
  "data": {
    "customer": "customer_21",
    "invited": 4,
    "within": "9d",
    "members": 7,
    "seatsPaid": 3,
    "offer": "team"
  }
}

npx startup-builder trigger Tenant.invited --like event_1311   # replays the delivery
npx startup-builder clock advance --by 5d   # then runs the note’s growth check
npx startup-builder listen Tenant.invited --forward-to http://localhost:3000/hook

You hold the CSM Key Result: $3,000 hiring expansion ARR by 2026-12-31.          ← worker, metric
On each growth or departure Trigger, choose one option and say why; a held Customer gets Not now. ← triggers, chooses, keep-first
Every count comes from the growth card, with its as-of time.                     ← copyRules 1
At $1,000 of added ARR or more, choose To the AE.                                ← your file, line 4
Never tell an old company where its champion went, or that a move happened.      ← copyRules 4
Removing a seat sits on the same billing Page as adding one.                     ← copyRules 12

npx startup-builder eval --scenario signal-expansion-12 --agent "claude -p" --seat success-manager   # seated: 4 of 5 added seats, 0 Checks failed sent, $0.04 a card · yours: 3 of 5, 1 failed, $0.06 → You approve each one

[
  {
    "$id": "https://api.sb/leaseline.app/tasks/task_512",
    "$type": "Task",
    "assignee": "worker_3",
    "due": "2026-10-14T15:20:00Z",
    "on": "customer_7",
    "brief": {
      "who": "Birchway Properties, on the $2,400 plan",
      "said": "The directory added 9 members past the plan’s 10 seats.",
      "chose": "to-the-ae",
      "why": "$1,077 of added ARR is over the $1,000 line",
      "never": [
        "a discount",
        "a deadline that isn’t real"
      ]
    }
  },
  {
    "$id": "https://api.sb/leaseline.app/tasks/task_498",
    "$type": "Task",
    "assignee": "worker_1",
    "due": "2026-10-13T17:00:00Z",
    "on": "customer_26",
    "brief": {
      "who": "Cedar Ridge Homes",
      "chose": "name-a-successor",
      "why": "the only admin’s seat ended Oct 6; renewal in 74 days",
      "candidate": "Mara Lind, billing owner",
      "never": [
        "where the old admin went"
      ]
    }
  },
  {
    "$id": "https://api.sb/leaseline.app/tasks/task_544",
    "$type": "Task",
    "assignee": "worker_1",
    "due": "2026-10-17T17:00:00Z",
    "on": "contact_52",
    "brief": {
      "who": "Theo Grant, now operations lead at Alder Park Rentals",
      "chose": "note-the-former-buyer",
      "why": "he signed Juniper Homes’ plan in March; his move is public since Sep 15",
      "draft": "in your send tray",
      "never": [
        "Juniper Homes’ data or results"
      ]
    }
  }
]

[
  {
    "reason": {
      "limit": "recipient",
      "observed": "note addressed to a member with no billing rights",
      "bound": "0 notes",
      "window": "1 note"
    },
    "doc": "/plays/signal-expansion#stop-recipient",
    "task": "task_471"
  }
]

{
  "$id": "https://api.sb/leaseline.app/campaigns/signal-expansion",
  "$type": "Campaign",
  "play": "play:signal-expansion@1",
  "path": [
    "hiring-expansion-arr",
    "expansion-arr",
    "net-new-arr",
    "arr"
  ],
  "experiment": {
    "metric": "hiring-expansion-arr",
    "unit": "usd",
    "heldBack": 0,
    "decision": null
  },
  "readout": {
    "value": null,
    "n": 9,
    "maturing": 3,
    "interval": null,
    "readability": "inadmissible",
    "basis": "before-after",
    "pooled": true
  },
  "ledger": {
    "spend": 1,
    "workerCost": 1,
    "hours": 1.1,
    "pipelineArr": 1077,
    "wonArr": 2585,
    "projectedArr": 216,
    "paybackDays": 1
  }
}

- Add your 3 new people this week and we’ll lock seats at $9 a month.
+ Your 3 new people need 3 more seats at $12 a month: $31.35 today, then $115 a month in all.

---
holdout: 0        # 6 cards a month is too few to hold any back; it reads before-after
---
Offer seats when invites or the directory pass the paid seats. At $1,000 of added ARR or more, bring in the AE.
When a champion leaves, name a successor within 5 business days.

$ npx startup-builder show plays/signal-expansion
holdout 0 · seat line $1,000 · successor 5 business days     your file  plays/signal-expansion.mdx:2,4,5 (Ask 2026-08-24)
family expansion · worker role:success-manager, owns never · chooses 5 (2 rule, 3 read) · sequences team-growth-note, seat-change-confirm, successor-welcome, former-buyer-warm · checks owned-by-a-person, keep-first, customer-ask-cap, reconcile, price · stops 12 · placements gmail, outlook, postal-mail + in-product notice    catalog  play:signal-expansion@1 (Not live yet, gaps #5)