Launch sites

# Not live yet (gaps #2)
curl -X POST "https://api.sb/leaseline.app/campaigns?mode=try" \
  -H "Authorization: Bearer $STARTUP_BUILDER_API_KEY" \
  -H "Content-Type: application/json" \
  -d '{"play":"launch-sites"}'

 1import { $ } from 'startup-builder'
 2
 3return await $.Campaign.create({ play: 'launch-sites' }, { mode: 'try' })   // dry run on the day-0 Startup, 2026-08-24 · Not live yet, gaps #2

npx startup-builder do Campaign.create --json '{"play":"launch-sites"}' --try   # Not live yet (gaps #2)

{
  "name": "do",
  "arguments": {
    "code": "return await $.Campaign.create({ play: 'launch-sites' }, { mode: 'try' })   // dry run on the day-0 Startup, 2026-08-24 · Not live yet, gaps #2",
    "mode": "try"
  }
}

 1{
 2  "type": "https://startupbuilder.dev/errors/refused",
 3  "title": "Refused",
 4  "status": 422,
 5  "detail": "launch-sites can’t start: 2 checks fail.",
 6  "checks": [
 7    {
 8      "check": "use-when",
 9      "status": "fail",
10      "observed": "74 of 100 People who said yes to hearing from Leaseline",
11      "doc": "/plays/launch-sites#check-use-when",
12      "fix": "Grow the list to 100 who said yes; the waitlist counts.",
13      "then": "Contact.subscribe"
14    },
15  …

curl "https://api.sb/leaseline.app/events?where=name%20in%20(%22Monitor.checked%22%2C%20%22Contact.subscribed%22%2C%20%22Version.deployed%22%2C%20%22Organization.announced%22%2C%20%22Person.commented%22%2C%20%22Visitor.identified%22%2C%20%22Person.posted%22%2C%20%22Change.merged%22)&limit=1" \
  -H "Authorization: Bearer $STARTUP_BUILDER_API_KEY"

# Not live yet (gaps #7)
curl -X POST "https://api.sb/leaseline.app/triggers/fire?mode=try" \
  -H "Authorization: Bearer $STARTUP_BUILDER_API_KEY" \
  -H "Content-Type: application/json" \
  -d '{"like":"event_1206"}'

# Not live yet (gaps #7)
curl "https://api.sb/leaseline.app/decisions?where=on%20%3D%20%22post_318%22" \
  -H "Authorization: Bearer $STARTUP_BUILDER_API_KEY"

# Not live yet (gaps #7)
curl "https://api.sb/leaseline.app/actions?where=on%20%3D%20%22post_318%22" \
  -H "Authorization: Bearer $STARTUP_BUILDER_API_KEY"

 1import { $ } from 'startup-builder'
 2
 3const { events: [last] } = await $.Event.list({ where: 'name in ("Monitor.checked", "Contact.subscribed", "Version.deployed", "Organization.announced", "Person.commented", "Visitor.identified", "Person.posted", "Change.merged")', limit: 1 })   // { play } compiled to this Play’s Trigger Events
 4const { subject } = await $.Trigger.fire({ like: last.$id }, { mode: 'try' })   // the same Event again, in try mode · Not live yet, gaps #7
 5const { decisions: [decision] } = await $.Decision.list({ where: `on = "${subject}"` })   // what it chose, and why · Not live yet, gaps #7
 6const { actions } = await $.Action.list({ where: `on = "${subject}"` })   // what it did, with its checks · Not live yet, gaps #7
 7return { decision, actions }

npx startup-builder do Event.list --json '{"where":"name in (\"Monitor.checked\", \"Contact.subscribed\", \"Version.deployed\", \"Organization.announced\", \"Person.commented\", \"Visitor.identified\", \"Person.posted\", \"Change.merged\")","limit":1}'
npx startup-builder do Trigger.fire --json '{"like":"event_1206"}' --try   # Not live yet (gaps #7)
npx startup-builder do Decision.list --json '{"where":"on = \"post_318\""}'   # Not live yet (gaps #7)
npx startup-builder do Action.list --json '{"where":"on = \"post_318\""}'   # Not live yet (gaps #7)

{
  "name": "do",
  "arguments": {
    "code": "const { events: [last] } = await $.Event.list({ where: 'name in (\"Monitor.checked\", \"Contact.subscribed\", \"Version.deployed\", \"Organization.announced\", \"Person.commented\", \"Visitor.identified\", \"Person.posted\", \"Change.merged\")', limit: 1 })   // { play } compiled to this Play’s Trigger Events\nconst { subject } = await $.Trigger.fire({ like: last.$id }, { mode: 'try' })   // the same Event again, in try mode · Not live yet, gaps #7\nconst { decisions: [decision] } = await $.Decision.list({ where: `on = \"${subject}\"` })   // what it chose, and why · Not live yet, gaps #7\nconst { actions } = await $.Action.list({ where: `on = \"${subject}\"` })   // what it did, with its checks · Not live yet, gaps #7\nreturn { decision, actions }",
    "mode": "try"
  }
}

 1{
 2  "decision": {
 3    "$id": "https://api.sb/leaseline.app/decisions/decision_431",
 4    "$type": "Decision",
 5    "choice": "brief-a-reply",
 6    "reason": "a new Hacker News thread asks “anyone used Leaseline for multi-owner renewals?”; the brief holds fragments only, and you write every word",
 7    "stakes": "low",
 8    "options": [
 9      "book-the-launch",
10      "time-it-to-a-moment",
11      "send-the-notice",
12      "brief-a-reply",
13      "follow-up-signups",
14      "not-now"
15  …

action_1 is a fragment brief of 12-word facts, never a sentence for the thread. action_2 puts it in your tray; you write the reply and post it by hand.

≈ +$1,200 ARR a month at 1 launch

Worth

7 h per launch, then 20 min a week

Your time

$0 per launch; ~$2 a launch of Worker cost

Spend

Day 8: first launch-sourced signup

First signal

a public demo, 100+ People who said yes

Use it when

Under 100: owned-newsletter · launched there in 180 days: launch-week

Not yet when

Worth’s formula: about +250 ICP Visitors per launch (Other Startups’ results; no lift of your own to read) × 1 launch a month × 0.008 Visitors to paid × $590 first order ARR ≈ +$1,180. Under First signal: Each launch reads at day 7 and its Customers at day 30; at 1 a month it reads before-after, beside Other Startups’ results.

Start it this weekCopy Anchor Link

npx startup-builder add play launch-sites   # 1 · writes plays/launch-sites.mdx (Not live yet, gaps #5)

# 2 · dry run; below, its 422 on 2026-08-24
curl -X POST "https://api.sb/leaseline.app/campaigns?mode=try" \
  -H "Authorization: Bearer $STARTUP_BUILDER_API_KEY" \
  -H "Content-Type: application/json" \
  -d '{"play":"launch-sites"}'

# 3 · keep it: you accept every date and write every thread word
curl -X POST https://api.sb/leaseline.app/campaigns \
  -H "Authorization: Bearer $STARTUP_BUILDER_API_KEY" \
  -H "Content-Type: application/json" \
  -d '{"play":"launch-sites"}'

# on
curl -X PATCH https://api.sb/leaseline.app/campaigns/launch-sites \
  -H "Authorization: Bearer $STARTUP_BUILDER_API_KEY" \
  -H "Content-Type: application/json" \
  -d '{"endsAt":null}'

# off: bookings cancel and the deploy freeze lifts
curl -X PATCH https://api.sb/leaseline.app/campaigns/launch-sites \
  -H "Authorization: Bearer $STARTUP_BUILDER_API_KEY" \
  -H "Content-Type: application/json" \
  -d '{"endsAt":"now"}'

{
  "type": "https://startupbuilder.dev/errors/refused",
  "title": "Refused",
  "status": 422,
  "detail": "launch-sites can’t start: 2 checks fail.",
  "checks": [
    {
      "check": "use-when",
      "status": "fail",
      "observed": "74 of 100 People who said yes to hearing from Leaseline",
      "doc": "/plays/launch-sites#check-use-when",
      "fix": "Grow the list to 100 who said yes; the waitlist counts.",
      "then": "Contact.subscribe"
    },
    {
      "check": "baseline",
      "status": "pass",
      "observed": "118 ICP Visitors a week, 28-day baseline",
      "doc": "/plays/launch-sites#check-baseline",
      "then": "Metric.query"
    },
    {
      "check": "launch-readiness",
      "status": "fail",
      "observed": "8 of 9: the demo asks for a signup",
      "doc": "/plays/launch-sites#check-launch-readiness",
      "fix": "Open the demo with no signup; the gate reads the live Site.",
      "then": "Site.publish"
    },
    {
      "check": "domain-authenticated",
      "status": "pass",
      "doc": "/plays/launch-sites#check-domain-authenticated",
      "then": "Domain.authenticate"
    },
    {
      "check": "mailbox-warm",
      "status": "pass",
      "observed": "the Startup’s Mailbox, warm since July",
      "doc": "/plays/launch-sites#check-mailbox-warm",
      "then": "Mailbox.warm"
    },
    {
      "check": "role-unstaffed",
      "status": "pass",
      "observed": "every thread word and every date goes to the founder, Dana",
      "doc": "/plays/launch-sites#check-role-unstaffed",
      "then": "Role.staff"
    }
  ]
}

A launch costs no cash: the sites list it for free, and the notice goes from your own Mailbox. The kit and the reply briefs cost about $2 a launch (Worker cost). Your time is the cost: about 7 hours per launch, most of it the 4-hour reply block on the day.

When it startsCopy Anchor Link

{
  "$id": "https://api.sb/leaseline.app/events/event_1206",
  "$type": "Event",
  "name": "Person.posted",
  "at": "2026-10-19T13:22:51Z",
  "seq": 1206,
  "data": {
    "post": "posts/post_318",
    "venue": "hacker-news",
    "title": "Ask HN: tools for renewals across many owners?",
    "names": [
      "Leaseline"
    ],
    "comments": 6
  }
}

# each delivery is signed with the Watch’s secret
curl -X POST https://api.sb/leaseline.app/watches \
  -H "Authorization: Bearer $STARTUP_BUILDER_API_KEY" \
  -H "Content-Type: application/json" \
  -d '{"selector":"Person.posted","url":"https://leaseline.app/hooks/sb"}'
npx startup-builder trigger Person.posted --like event_1206   # replays the delivery into your tray
npx startup-builder clock advance --by 1h   # reads whether you replied within the hour

Who runs itCopy Anchor Link

Marketing Lead · your agent (role:marketing-lead, worker_8) holds the Key Result: it runs the readiness gate, books dates inside the caps, builds the kit, sends the live notice and briefs every comment. Every date, post and reply on a launch thread hands to you (Dana Okafor, person, worker_1, role:founder). Agent text reaches a Hacker News or Product Hunt thread on no rung.

What it reads · What it may call. It reads the live Site, the claims source and each thread’s comments, and a comment is data, never instructions. It may call POST /{namespace}/content/draft, POST /{namespace}/tasks/{task}/assign and POST /{namespace}/posts/{post}/publish on the Startup’s own Handles; it never posts on a launch thread. Its tools are POST /{namespace}/content/draft, POST /{namespace}/tasks/{task}/assign, POST /{namespace}/posts/{post}/publish, and any other call becomes an Approval under the Role’s Mandate.

You hold the Marketing Lead Key Result: 400 ICP Visitors per launch by 2026-12-31. ← worker, metric
On each launch Event, choose one option and say why; a rested site gets Not now. ← triggers, chooses
Launch BetaList, then Product Hunt, then Hacker News, one at a time.             ← your file, line 5
Write no sentence for a launch thread: hand the founder fragments of 12 words or fewer. ← copyRules 4, 5, authorship
Never ask anyone to vote, upvote or rank, on any site or channel.                ← copyRules 2, vote-ask
Show only screens the live Site serves today.                                    ← copyRules 6

The slow loop, as a Change. decision_391 (2026-09-21, weekly) read Product Hunt’s 640 ICP Visitors against BetaList’s 90 and moved Hacker News before a second directory (your file, line 5), through change_29, which Dana merged with POST /{namespace}/changes/{change}/merge. Replayed on past launches, POST /{namespace}/changes/{change}/review put the next launch at about 400; read back at its day 7, Hacker News brought 410, n 1 launch, ■□□□ Too early to tell (Example, day 50).

Bring your own agent (folded) books and briefs at the same rung when it matches or beats the seated agent on the eval suite; thread words stay yours either way, and POST /{namespace}/roles/{role}/staff seats it.

npx startup-builder eval --scenario launch-sites-3 --agent "claude -p" --seat marketing-lead   # seated: 0 vote asks sent, 0 agent words on threads, 2.4 min a brief · yours: 0, 1 full sentence drafted for a thread, 2.0 min → You approve each one

What it can do nextCopy Anchor Link

When it hands to youCopy Anchor Link

Every date, post and thread reply hands to you (Dana Okafor, person); interested notice replies go through instant-response to the AE. As captured, the reply brief in your tray (brief is Not live yet, gaps #7).

[
  {
    "$id": "https://api.sb/leaseline.app/tasks/task_521",
    "$type": "Task",
    "assignee": "worker_1",
    "due": "2026-10-19T14:22:00Z",
    "on": "post_318",
    "brief": {
      "thread": "Ask HN: tools for renewals across many owners?",
      "asked": "anyone used Leaseline for multi-owner renewals?",
      "fragments": [
        "per-owner batches, 60 days out",
        "41 property managers on it",
        "free plan: 10 units"
      ],
      "chose": "brief-a-reply",
      "never": [
        "a vote ask",
        "a sentence written for you",
        "a link to the thread in any Message"
      ]
    }
  }
]

You answer a brief by writing the reply and posting it by hand, with POST /{namespace}/tasks/{task}/return and a reason, or with POST /{namespace}/actions/{action}/redirect; a date with POST /{namespace}/approvals/{approval}/approve or POST /{namespace}/tasks/{task}/return. A brief past its due time stays in the tray marked late, and nobody else can post in your name, so nothing goes up a Role. During a launch’s 72 hours the agent pings you within 5 minutes of each comment.

On time: You: 81 of 88 briefs answered within 60 min, median 9 min on launch days, n 88, ■■□□ Early sign beside Other Startups’ 86 %. Your queue: counted by kind: per launch, 1 date, 1 kit review and about 30 reply briefs; between launches, about 2 mention briefs a week.

The fixed line: POST /{namespace}/deals/{deal}/assign sets owner to the receiving person, the agent is never a Deal’s owner, and Meetings land on the owner’s calendar under the owner’s name.

When it won’t sendCopy Anchor Link

The captured refusal, then the Stop that fired as a Campaign.paused reason (Not live yet, gaps #2); the rewrite that sent is the Product Hunt notice thread in Example.

{
  "type": "https://startupbuilder.dev/errors/refused",
  "title": "Refused",
  "status": 422,
  "detail": "The Product Hunt live notice did not send: it asks People to upvote.",
  "checks": [
    {
      "check": "vote-ask",
      "status": "fail",
      "doc": "/plays/launch-sites#check-vote-ask",
      "fix": "Cut the ask; say it is live and what it does.",
      "then": "Content.draft"
    },
    {
      "check": "thread-link",
      "status": "pass"
    }
  ]
}

[
  {
    "reason": {
      "limit": "outage",
      "observed": "p95 3.8 s for 6 min",
      "bound": "3 s for 5 min",
      "window": "launch day"
    },
    "doc": "/plays/launch-sites#stop-outage",
    "task": "task_406"
  }
]

Did it workCopy Anchor Link

At 1 launch a month, no held-back half of launches reads, so the basis is before-after (rule o): the columns read Now and Before, and nothing prints as Added. Each figure’s call is POST /{namespace}/metrics/query by node, and every node above the leaf is Not live yet (gaps #4).

{
  "$id": "decisions/decision_431",
  "$type": "Decision",
  "choice": "brief-a-reply",
  "reason": "a new Hacker News thread asks “anyone used Leaseline for multi-owner renewals?”; the brief holds fragments only, and you write every word",
  "stakes": "low",
  "options": [
    "book-the-launch",
    "time-it-to-a-moment",
    "send-the-notice",
    "brief-a-reply",
    "follow-up-signups",
    "not-now"
  ],
  "by": "worker_8",
  "on": "post_318",
  "expected": "your reply within 60 min",
  "reopensWhen": "no Post.published by worker_1 on post_318 within 60m"
}

Before against after reads ICP Visitors whose first Source is a launch listing, short link or site referrer, in the 7 days after each launch, against the 28-day baseline before the first. It is not proof; Other Startups’ results, with a 10 % notice holdout, print beside it.

How it moves it: each launch put the no-signup demo before a site’s readers for a day, and Dana answered 81 comments at a median of 9 minutes.

Guardrails: before against after: play-sourced-customers, 7 against 0, and launch-sourced Customers active from day 14 to day 30, 5 of 7 against Leaseline’s 4 of 7 for every Source.

{
  "$id": "https://api.sb/leaseline.app/campaigns/launch-sites",
  "$type": "Campaign",
  "play": "play:launch-sites@1",
  "path": [
    "launch-icp-visits",
    "icp-reached",
    "new-arr",
    "net-new-arr",
    "arr"
  ],
  "experiment": {
    "metric": "launch-icp-visits",
    "unit": "count",
    "heldBack": 0,
    "decision": null
  },
  "readout": {
    "value": null,
    "n": 3,
    "maturing": 0,
    "interval": null,
    "readability": "inadmissible",
    "basis": "before-after",
    "pooled": true
  },
  "ledger": {
    "spend": 0,
    "workerCost": 6,
    "hours": 22,
    "pipelineArr": 3816,
    "wonArr": 3023,
    "projectedArr": 1180,
    "paybackDays": 0
  }
}

Outside benchmark: 27 % of Hacker News launch-post titles name AI, models or agents (142 launch posts, a count of the public launch list, 2026-10-24), so a title that names what the Product does stands apart.

Before it · After it. Before it: owned-newsletter grows the 100 People who said yes. After it: launch signups go to product-led, interested notice replies to instant-response, and a shipped Change on a rested site goes to launch-week.

ExampleCopy Anchor Link

Leaseline ran it from 2026-08-24 to 2026-10-19 (56 days): 3 launches on 3 sites, 3 live notices to 212 People who said yes (21 held back), and 88 reply briefs. Read every captured thread at ?threads=all; three follow the tables.

Product Hunt, Sep 15, 00:20 PT, a commenter · “Does this work when each building has a different owner?”

Dana, 00:27 · Yes, that is the case we built for: each owner gets their own renewal batch, 60 days out.¹ The demo has three owners loaded; no signup.² Written by Dana from the brief’s fragments.

Sep 15, 09:40 · the commenter signed up from the listing (Visitor.identified, first Source Product Hunt) and paid for Pro on Sep 29.

- We’re live on Product Hunt today: please upvote us!
+ Leaseline is live on Product Hunt today, with a demo you can open with no signup. Tell us what you think on the listing.

Hacker News, 2026-10-06 09:14 · a commenter asked how Leaseline handles owners in two time zones; the claims source holds no answer, so the brief marked it unknown, due 10:14. · Dana, 09:31 · wrote her own reply: the batch runs in each owner’s time zone, and she would add it to the docs that week.³

¹ Your words, from a fragment: “per-owner batches, 60 days out”. ² A screen the live Site serves. ³ Every thread word is yours; the agent wrote none.

Your settingsCopy Anchor Link

---
noticeHoldout: 0.1     # 1 in 10 who said yes gets no notice
replyBlock: 09:00-13:00 ET
---
BetaList first, then Product Hunt, then Hacker News, one at a time. I write every word on the threads.

$ npx startup-builder show plays/launch-sites
notice holdout 0.1 · reply block 09:00-13:00 ET · site order     your file  plays/launch-sites.mdx:2,3,5 (Ask 2026-08-24; line 5 by change_29, 2026-09-21)
family demand · worker role:marketing-lead, owns never · chooses 6 (4 rule, 2 read) · sequences launch-live-notice, launch-signup-follow-up · every thread word by the founder · checks owned-by-a-person, authorship, vote-ask, thread-link, readiness, venue-rest, portfolio-caps · stops 4 · placements product-hunt, hacker-news, betalist, gmail, outlook, yahoo-mail, x, linkedin    catalog  play:launch-sites@1 (Not live yet, gaps #5)

Every key from the catalogCopy Anchor Link

Compiled, not written: edit the Play record launch-sites and its Leaseline run, then regenerate. Every step runs from a sentence or a line of code. In your words: the CRM words you know, and where each lives here.