Deposits before you build

# Not live yet (gaps #2)
curl -X POST "https://api.sb/leaseline.app/campaigns?mode=try" \
  -H "Authorization: Bearer $STARTUP_BUILDER_API_KEY" \
  -H "Content-Type: application/json" \
  -d '{"play":"reserve-drop"}'

 1import { $ } from 'startup-builder'
 2
 3return await $.Campaign.create({ play: 'reserve-drop' }, { mode: 'try' })   // dry run on the day-0 Startup, 2026-08-24 · Not live yet, gaps #2

npx startup-builder do Campaign.create --json '{"play":"reserve-drop"}' --try   # Not live yet (gaps #2)

{
  "name": "do",
  "arguments": {
    "code": "return await $.Campaign.create({ play: 'reserve-drop' }, { mode: 'try' })   // dry run on the day-0 Startup, 2026-08-24 · Not live yet, gaps #2",
    "mode": "try"
  }
}

 1{
 2  "type": "https://startupbuilder.dev/errors/refused",
 3  "title": "Refused",
 4  "status": 422,
 5  "detail": "reserve-drop can’t start yet: 1 check fails and 2 warn.",
 6  "checks": [
 7    {
 8      "check": "use-when",
 9      "status": "pass",
10      "observed": "a signed creator Agreement; Inspect has a build plan",
11      "doc": "/plays/reserve-drop#check-use-when",
12      "fix": "Sign one creator whose audience buys from you, or run creator-probe.",
13      "then": "Metric.query"
14    },
15  …

curl "https://api.sb/leaseline.app/events?where=name%20in%20(%22Agreement.signed%22%2C%20%22Post.published%22%2C%20%22Order.placed%22%2C%20%22Order.paid%22%2C%20%22Offer.exhausted%22%2C%20%22Order.started%22%2C%20%22Refund.requested%22%2C%20%22Monitor.checked%22%2C%20%22Claim.flagged%22%2C%20%22Schedule.fired%22%2C%20%22Forecast.slipped%22%2C%20%22Dispute.opened%22%2C%20%22Decision.recorded%22)&limit=1" \
  -H "Authorization: Bearer $STARTUP_BUILDER_API_KEY"

# Not live yet (gaps #7)
curl -X POST "https://api.sb/leaseline.app/triggers/fire?mode=try" \
  -H "Authorization: Bearer $STARTUP_BUILDER_API_KEY" \
  -H "Content-Type: application/json" \
  -d '{"like":"event_7088"}'

# Not live yet (gaps #7)
curl "https://api.sb/leaseline.app/decisions?where=on%20%3D%20%22offer_14%22" \
  -H "Authorization: Bearer $STARTUP_BUILDER_API_KEY"

# Not live yet (gaps #7)
curl "https://api.sb/leaseline.app/actions?where=on%20%3D%20%22offer_14%22" \
  -H "Authorization: Bearer $STARTUP_BUILDER_API_KEY"

 1import { $ } from 'startup-builder'
 2
 3const { events: [last] } = await $.Event.list({ where: 'name in ("Agreement.signed", "Post.published", "Order.placed", "Order.paid", "Offer.exhausted", "Order.started", "Refund.requested", "Monitor.checked", "Claim.flagged", "Schedule.fired", "Forecast.slipped", "Dispute.opened", "Decision.recorded")', limit: 1 })   // { play } compiled to this Play’s Trigger Events
 4const { subject } = await $.Trigger.fire({ like: last.$id }, { mode: 'try' })   // the same Event again, in try mode · Not live yet, gaps #7
 5const { decisions: [decision] } = await $.Decision.list({ where: `on = "${subject}"` })   // what it chose, and why · Not live yet, gaps #7
 6const { actions } = await $.Action.list({ where: `on = "${subject}"` })   // what it did, with its checks · Not live yet, gaps #7
 7return { decision, actions }

npx startup-builder do Event.list --json '{"where":"name in (\"Agreement.signed\", \"Post.published\", \"Order.placed\", \"Order.paid\", \"Offer.exhausted\", \"Order.started\", \"Refund.requested\", \"Monitor.checked\", \"Claim.flagged\", \"Schedule.fired\", \"Forecast.slipped\", \"Dispute.opened\", \"Decision.recorded\")","limit":1}'
npx startup-builder do Trigger.fire --json '{"like":"event_7088"}' --try   # Not live yet (gaps #7)
npx startup-builder do Decision.list --json '{"where":"on = \"offer_14\""}'   # Not live yet (gaps #7)
npx startup-builder do Action.list --json '{"where":"on = \"offer_14\""}'   # Not live yet (gaps #7)

{
  "name": "do",
  "arguments": {
    "code": "const { events: [last] } = await $.Event.list({ where: 'name in (\"Agreement.signed\", \"Post.published\", \"Order.placed\", \"Order.paid\", \"Offer.exhausted\", \"Order.started\", \"Refund.requested\", \"Monitor.checked\", \"Claim.flagged\", \"Schedule.fired\", \"Forecast.slipped\", \"Dispute.opened\", \"Decision.recorded\")', limit: 1 })   // { play } compiled to this Play’s Trigger Events\nconst { subject } = await $.Trigger.fire({ like: last.$id }, { mode: 'try' })   // the same Event again, in try mode · Not live yet, gaps #7\nconst { decisions: [decision] } = await $.Decision.list({ where: `on = \"${subject}\"` })   // what it chose, and why · Not live yet, gaps #7\nconst { actions } = await $.Action.list({ where: `on = \"${subject}\"` })   // what it did, with its checks · Not live yet, gaps #7\nreturn { decision, actions }",
    "mode": "try"
  }
}

 1{
 2  "decision": {
 3    "$id": "https://api.sb/leaseline.app/decisions/decision_655",
 4    "$type": "Decision",
 5    "choice": "capture-on-pass",
 6    "reason": "34 outside deposits at the 18:00 Central close on Oct 9, against the pass mark of 25; 3 insider Orders excluded",
 7    "stakes": "medium",
 8    "options": [
 9      "capture-on-pass",
10      "release-on-miss",
11      "open-next-tranche",
12      "pause-checkout",
13      "refund-first",
14      "kill-the-drop"
15  …

action_1 counts outside deposits from Orders, never from the Page. action_2 captures the 34 holds once you approve it, because the stakes are medium. action_3 is each reserver’s receipt, naming the charge as a charge and the ship date of their tranche.

≈ +$1,800 ARR a month, once it ships

Worth

1.5 h week 1, then 20 min a week

Your time

$0 per deposit; the creator’s fee, $400 a drop

Spend

Hour 1: the first deposit held

First signal

a creator Agreement, ships within 90 days

Use it when

No creator: creator-probe · ships past 90 days: signup-interviews

Not yet when

Worth’s formula: about 43 net deposits × 0.6 kept after delivery (Other Startups’ results) × $143 Inspect ARR ÷ 2 months between drops ≈ +$1,845. Under First signal: One drop reads at its 72-hour close against the pass mark; ship dates and refunds settle it by Feb 15 plus 30 days.

Start it this weekCopy Anchor Link

npx startup-builder add play reserve-drop   # 1 · writes plays/reserve-drop.mdx (Not live yet, gaps #5)

# 2 · dry run; below, its 422 on 2026-08-24
curl -X POST "https://api.sb/leaseline.app/campaigns?mode=try" \
  -H "Authorization: Bearer $STARTUP_BUILDER_API_KEY" \
  -H "Content-Type: application/json" \
  -d '{"play":"reserve-drop"}'

# 3 · keep it, at You approve the first wave
curl -X POST https://api.sb/leaseline.app/campaigns \
  -H "Authorization: Bearer $STARTUP_BUILDER_API_KEY" \
  -H "Content-Type: application/json" \
  -d '{"play":"reserve-drop"}'

# on
curl -X PATCH https://api.sb/leaseline.app/campaigns/reserve-drop \
  -H "Authorization: Bearer $STARTUP_BUILDER_API_KEY" \
  -H "Content-Type: application/json" \
  -d '{"endsAt":null}'

# off: checkout pauses; the close time stands and refunds keep running
curl -X PATCH https://api.sb/leaseline.app/campaigns/reserve-drop \
  -H "Authorization: Bearer $STARTUP_BUILDER_API_KEY" \
  -H "Content-Type: application/json" \
  -d '{"endsAt":"now"}'

{
  "type": "https://startupbuilder.dev/errors/refused",
  "title": "Refused",
  "status": 422,
  "detail": "reserve-drop can’t start yet: 1 check fails and 2 warn.",
  "checks": [
    {
      "check": "use-when",
      "status": "pass",
      "observed": "a signed creator Agreement; Inspect has a build plan",
      "doc": "/plays/reserve-drop#check-use-when",
      "fix": "Sign one creator whose audience buys from you, or run creator-probe.",
      "then": "Metric.query"
    },
    {
      "check": "billing-connected",
      "status": "pass",
      "observed": "Stripe, card holds on",
      "doc": "/plays/reserve-drop#check-billing-connected",
      "fix": "Connect Stripe so holds, captures and refunds are live.",
      "then": "Integration.connect"
    },
    {
      "check": "ship-date",
      "status": "fail",
      "observed": "tranche 1 ships Mar 2, 120 days after the post",
      "doc": "/plays/reserve-drop#check-ship-date",
      "fix": "Set tranche 1 to ship within 90 days of the post.",
      "then": "Offer.publish"
    },
    {
      "check": "baseline",
      "status": "warn",
      "observed": "no drop before",
      "doc": "/plays/reserve-drop#check-baseline",
      "fix": "n 0: one drop reads against its pass mark, not proof.",
      "then": "Metric.query"
    },
    {
      "check": "role-unstaffed",
      "status": "warn",
      "roles": [
        "partner-manager",
        "billing-specialist"
      ],
      "owned": 0,
      "doc": "/plays/reserve-drop#check-role-unstaffed",
      "fix": "Staff Partnerships, or leave it: creator fixes and refunds come to you.",
      "then": "Role.staff"
    }
  ]
}

Holds, captures and refunds cost what Stripe charges per card. The creator’s fee is $400 a drop under the Agreement, and the Page, counts and receipts cost about $3 a drop (Worker cost). That comes to about $400 a drop, one drop per creator audience every 60 days.

When it startsCopy Anchor Link

{
  "$id": "https://api.sb/leaseline.app/events/event_7088",
  "$type": "Event",
  "name": "Schedule.fired",
  "at": "2026-10-09T23:00:00Z",
  "seq": 7088,
  "data": {
    "offer": "offer_14",
    "trigger": "drop-window-closed",
    "opened": "2026-10-06T23:00:00Z",
    "outside": 34,
    "insider": 3,
    "passMark": 25
  }
}

npx startup-builder trigger Schedule.fired --like event_7088   # replays the close
npx startup-builder clock advance --by 12d   # runs the tranche run to day 21 and the step notice on day 15
npx startup-builder listen Order.placed --forward-to http://localhost:3000/hook

Who runs itCopy Anchor Link

Marketing Lead · your agent (role:marketing-lead, worker_4) holds the Key Result. Creator fixes go to the Partnerships Role and refunds to the Billing Role, both unstaffed, so you (Dana Okafor, person, worker_1); a capture, a date change and a kill are yours to approve. Your number links to Did it work.

What it reads · What it may call. It reads Orders, holds and refunds from Stripe, the creator’s live post and the forecast ship dates. Every count on the Page reads from Orders at render time; nothing the drop watches appears in a Message. Its tools are POST /{namespace}/orders/{order}/pay, POST /{namespace}/orders/{order}/cancel, POST /{namespace}/offers/{offer}/publish, POST /{namespace}/actions/{action}/pause, POST /{namespace}/tasks/{task}/assign, POST /{namespace}/orders/{order}/refund, POST /{namespace}/credit-grants/issue, and any other call becomes an Approval under the Role’s Mandate.

You hold the Marketing Lead Key Result: 43 deposits delivered by 2026-02-15.     ← worker, metric
On each Trigger, choose one option and say why.                                  ← triggers, chooses
The pass mark is 25 outside deposits in 72 hours; it never moves.                ← your file, line 4; plan-lock
The facts block says Not built and the ship date of the tranche on sale.         ← copyRules 1
Name a hold a hold and a charge a charge in every receipt.                       ← copyRules 13
Refunds go first, in cash, and never wait on an Approval.                        ← tactic reserve-refunds

The slow loop. The plan locked at the first Visit, so no Change could touch the pass mark, the tranches or the dates in the window; the drop’s Readout writes its result to Other Startups’ pool for the next one.

Bring your own agent (folded) starts at You approve each one whatever it scores, because captures and refunds move money; POST /{namespace}/roles/{role}/staff seats it.

npx startup-builder eval --scenario reserve-drop-46 --agent "claude -p" --seat marketing-lead   # seated: every count from Orders, 0 Checks failed shown, refunds same day · yours: 1 count typed, refused

What it can do nextCopy Anchor Link

When it hands to youCopy Anchor Link

Captures, date changes and kills come to you to approve; creator fixes go to Partnerships, which is unstaffed, so they come to you too. One Brief per Role, as captured (brief is Not live yet, gaps #7).

[
  {
    "$id": "https://api.sb/leaseline.app/approvals/approval_108",
    "$type": "Approval",
    "verdict": "approved",
    "deadline": "2026-10-09T23:59:00Z",
    "draft": "Capture 34 outside holds: $1,466; 3 insider Orders take no seat",
    "route": "capture-on-pass",
    "checks": [
      {
        "check": "insider",
        "status": "pass"
      },
      {
        "check": "plan-lock",
        "status": "pass"
      }
    ]
  },
  {
    "$id": "https://api.sb/leaseline.app/tasks/task_702",
    "$type": "Task",
    "assignee": "worker_1",
    "due": "2026-10-07T02:05:00Z",
    "on": "post_52",
    "brief": {
      "who": "the creator’s TikTok cross-post",
      "said": "posted at 18:00 with the paid-promotion setting off",
      "chose": "pause-checkout",
      "why": "a post missing its disclosure at T+2 h",
      "paused": "checkout, for 41 min",
      "never": [
        "moving the close time"
      ]
    }
  }
]

You answer with POST /{namespace}/approvals/{approval}/approve or POST /{namespace}/approvals/{approval}/refuse, POST /{namespace}/tasks/{task}/claim (Take this one), POST /{namespace}/tasks/{task}/return with a reason, or POST /{namespace}/actions/{action}/redirect, each a one-call window. A refund request never waits on you: it pays first. A Task nobody claims by its due time goes up a Role through POST /{namespace}/tasks/{task}/escalate, and person-promise fires.

On time: you, 2 of 2 within their due time (the capture in 22 min, the creator fix in 41 min), n 2, ■□□□ Too early to tell beside Other Startups’ 97 % on time. Your queue: in the drop week, 3 approvals and 1 creator fix; then about 1 refund draft a week and the ship-date check from Dec 1.

The fixed line: POST /{namespace}/deals/{deal}/assign sets owner to the receiving person, the agent is never a Deal’s owner, and Meetings land on the owner’s calendar under the owner’s name.

When it won’t sendCopy Anchor Link

The captured refusal, then the Stop that fired as a Campaign.paused reason (Not live yet, gaps #2); the rewrite that posted is the comment reply in Example.

{
  "type": "https://startupbuilder.dev/errors/refused",
  "title": "Refused",
  "status": 422,
  "detail": "The reply to a comment on the creator’s post did not post: it says Inspect is ready to use.",
  "checks": [
    {
      "check": "claims-resolve",
      "status": "fail",
      "doc": "/plays/reserve-drop#check-claims-resolve",
      "fix": "Say Not built and the tranche’s ship date.",
      "then": "Content.draft"
    },
    {
      "check": "price",
      "status": "pass"
    }
  ]
}

[
  {
    "reason": {
      "limit": "disclosure",
      "observed": "paid-promotion setting off at T+2h",
      "bound": "on",
      "window": "the TikTok cross-post"
    },
    "doc": "/plays/reserve-drop#stop-disclosure",
    "task": "task_702"
  }
]

Did it workCopy Anchor Link

One drop holds no half back, so the basis is before-after (rule o): the Now column reads the drop, the Before column the pass mark you fixed first, and nothing prints as Added. Each figure’s call is POST /{namespace}/metrics/query by node; the leaf and every node above it are Not live yet (gaps #4).

{
  "$id": "decisions/decision_655",
  "$type": "Decision",
  "choice": "capture-on-pass",
  "reason": "34 outside deposits at the 18:00 Central close on Oct 9, against the pass mark of 25; 3 insider Orders excluded",
  "stakes": "medium",
  "options": [
    "capture-on-pass",
    "release-on-miss",
    "open-next-tranche",
    "pause-checkout",
    "refund-first",
    "kill-the-drop"
  ],
  "by": "worker_4",
  "on": "offer_14",
  "expected": "tranche 1 delivered by Dec 15, refunds under 10 % by Jan 14",
  "reopensWhen": "a tranche forecast past its ship date, or refund requests over 10 % in 24h"
}

The leaf counts outside deposits sold in each tranche, net of refunds by the tranche’s ship date plus 30 days; it settles on Mar 17 for tranche 3, and Other Startups’ results print beside it.

How it moves it: one creator post opened a fixed 72-hour window with live counts and dated tranche prices; tranche 1 sold out in 19 h.

Guardrails: before against after: refunds, 3 of 46 (6.5 %) against the 10 % refund spike line, and Disputes, 0 against the 2 that would pause checkout.

{
  "$id": "https://api.sb/leaseline.app/campaigns/reserve-drop",
  "$type": "Campaign",
  "play": "play:reserve-drop@1",
  "path": [
    "deposits-per-tranche",
    "new-paying-customers",
    "new-arr",
    "net-new-arr",
    "arr"
  ],
  "experiment": {
    "metric": "deposits-per-tranche",
    "unit": "count",
    "heldBack": 0,
    "decision": null
  },
  "readout": {
    "value": null,
    "n": 1,
    "maturing": 1,
    "interval": null,
    "readability": "inadmissible",
    "basis": "before-after",
    "pooled": true
  },
  "ledger": {
    "spend": 400,
    "workerCost": 3,
    "hours": 2.6,
    "pipelineArr": 0,
    "wonArr": 0,
    "projectedArr": 1845,
    "paybackDays": null
  }
}

Outside benchmark: this Play’s catalog record carries no sourced range yet, so Other Startups’ results stand in: 1.6× the pass mark at the close, ■■■□ Likely, n 140 drops.

Before it · After it. Before it: creator-probe finds the creator whose audience buys, and signup-interviews shapes what Inspect does. After it: run-beside holds each reserver’s first 30 days on delivery, and review-requests asks the ones who keep it.

ExampleCopy Anchor Link

Leaseline ran it from 2026-08-24 to 2026-10-19: the plan on day 0, the creator post on Oct 6 at 18:00 Central, the close on Oct 9 at 18:00, and the tranche run open to Oct 27. Read every captured thread at ?threads=all; three follow the tables.

The drop Page, Oct 6 18:04 · Leaseline Inspect. Not built. Tranche 1 ships Dec 15.¹ $39 deposit, refundable any time until it ships, in one click.² 20 seats: 3 taken. Closes Oct 9, 18:00 Central.³

A reserver, 18:04 · held $39. Receipt, 18:05 · We placed a $39 hold on your card; it becomes a charge only if 25 people reserve by Oct 9, 18:00 Central.⁴

Oct 9, 18:41 · the hold captured; the receipt said charge.

- Yes! It’s ready to use as soon as you reserve.
+ Not built: tranche 1 ships Dec 15, and your deposit is refundable until then.

The creator’s TikTok cross-post, 2026-10-06 20:00 · the paid-promotion setting off at T+2 h · The agent, 20:00 · paused checkout and assigned the fix (task_702) · Dana, 20:22 · reached the creator, who turned it on at 20:41; checkout resumed, and the close time stood.

¹ The facts block says Not built and the ship date of the tranche on sale. ² The refund terms beside the button, the same for every tranche. ³ The close time as a date, hour and time zone; no countdown restarts. ⁴ A hold named as a hold; the charge named as a charge when it happens.

Your settingsCopy Anchor Link

---
holdout: 0        # one drop holds no half back; it reads against the pass mark
window: 72h
---
Pass mark: 25 outside deposits by the close. Tranches: 20 at $39 (Dec 15), 20 at $49 (Jan 15), 30 at $59 (Feb 15).
Refund on request, in cash first.

$ npx startup-builder show plays/reserve-drop
holdout 0 · window 72h · pass mark 25 · 3 tranches · cash refunds first     your file  plays/reserve-drop.mdx:2,3,5,6 (Ask 2026-08-24; locked at the first Visit, 2026-10-06)
worker role:marketing-lead, owns never · chooses 6 (4 rule, 2 read) · sequences drop-reserver, drop-close-reminder, drop-step-notice, drop-checkout-return, drop-kill-choice · approval first-send, every-send · checks owned-by-a-person, claims-resolve, price, plan-lock, no-reset, insider, fraud, ship-date, audience-rest · stops 7 · placements instagram, tiktok, youtube, linkedin, gmail, outlook, yahoo-mail    catalog  play:reserve-drop@1 (Not live yet, gaps #5)

Every key from the catalogCopy Anchor Link

Compiled, not written: edit the Play record reserve-drop and its Leaseline run, then regenerate. Every step runs from a sentence or a line of code. In your words: the CRM words you know, and where each lives here.