Promote winners

# Not live yet (gaps #2)
curl -X POST "https://api.sb/leaseline.app/campaigns?mode=try" \
  -H "Authorization: Bearer $STARTUP_BUILDER_API_KEY" \
  -H "Content-Type: application/json" \
  -d '{"play":"promote-winners"}'

 1import { $ } from 'startup-builder'
 2
 3return await $.Campaign.create({ play: 'promote-winners' }, { mode: 'try' })   // dry run on the day-0 Startup, 2026-08-24 · Not live yet, gaps #2

npx startup-builder do Campaign.create --json '{"play":"promote-winners"}' --try   # Not live yet (gaps #2)

{
  "name": "do",
  "arguments": {
    "code": "return await $.Campaign.create({ play: 'promote-winners' }, { mode: 'try' })   // dry run on the day-0 Startup, 2026-08-24 · Not live yet, gaps #2",
    "mode": "try"
  }
}

 1{
 2  "type": "https://startupbuilder.dev/errors/refused",
 3  "title": "Refused",
 4  "status": 422,
 5  "detail": "promote-winners can’t start yet: 1 check fails and 1 warns.",
 6  "checks": [
 7    {
 8      "check": "use-when",
 9      "status": "pass",
10      "observed": "2 free winners in 30 days; a $340 monthly Demand Budget",
11      "doc": "/plays/promote-winners#check-use-when",
12      "fix": "Keep a winner and $300 a month, or run organic-social first.",
13      "then": "Metric.query"
14    },
15  …

curl "https://api.sb/leaseline.app/events?where=name%20in%20(%22Experiment.concluded%22%2C%20%22Invoice.collected%22%2C%20%22Monitor.checked%22%2C%20%22Fact.recorded%22%2C%20%22Integration.synced%22%2C%20%22Offer.repriced%22%2C%20%22Experiment.matured%22%2C%20%22PlayMix.compiled%22)&limit=1" \
  -H "Authorization: Bearer $STARTUP_BUILDER_API_KEY"

# Not live yet (gaps #7)
curl -X POST "https://api.sb/leaseline.app/triggers/fire?mode=try" \
  -H "Authorization: Bearer $STARTUP_BUILDER_API_KEY" \
  -H "Content-Type: application/json" \
  -d '{"like":"event_4120"}'

# Not live yet (gaps #7)
curl "https://api.sb/leaseline.app/decisions?where=on%20%3D%20%22post_31%22" \
  -H "Authorization: Bearer $STARTUP_BUILDER_API_KEY"

# Not live yet (gaps #7)
curl "https://api.sb/leaseline.app/actions?where=on%20%3D%20%22post_31%22" \
  -H "Authorization: Bearer $STARTUP_BUILDER_API_KEY"

 1import { $ } from 'startup-builder'
 2
 3const { events: [last] } = await $.Event.list({ where: 'name in ("Experiment.concluded", "Invoice.collected", "Monitor.checked", "Fact.recorded", "Integration.synced", "Offer.repriced", "Experiment.matured", "PlayMix.compiled")', limit: 1 })   // { play } compiled to this Play’s Trigger Events
 4const { subject } = await $.Trigger.fire({ like: last.$id }, { mode: 'try' })   // the same Event again, in try mode · Not live yet, gaps #7
 5const { decisions: [decision] } = await $.Decision.list({ where: `on = "${subject}"` })   // what it chose, and why · Not live yet, gaps #7
 6const { actions } = await $.Action.list({ where: `on = "${subject}"` })   // what it did, with its checks · Not live yet, gaps #7
 7return { decision, actions }

npx startup-builder do Event.list --json '{"where":"name in (\"Experiment.concluded\", \"Invoice.collected\", \"Monitor.checked\", \"Fact.recorded\", \"Integration.synced\", \"Offer.repriced\", \"Experiment.matured\", \"PlayMix.compiled\")","limit":1}'
npx startup-builder do Trigger.fire --json '{"like":"event_4120"}' --try   # Not live yet (gaps #7)
npx startup-builder do Decision.list --json '{"where":"on = \"post_31\""}'   # Not live yet (gaps #7)
npx startup-builder do Action.list --json '{"where":"on = \"post_31\""}'   # Not live yet (gaps #7)

{
  "name": "do",
  "arguments": {
    "code": "const { events: [last] } = await $.Event.list({ where: 'name in (\"Experiment.concluded\", \"Invoice.collected\", \"Monitor.checked\", \"Fact.recorded\", \"Integration.synced\", \"Offer.repriced\", \"Experiment.matured\", \"PlayMix.compiled\")', limit: 1 })   // { play } compiled to this Play’s Trigger Events\nconst { subject } = await $.Trigger.fire({ like: last.$id }, { mode: 'try' })   // the same Event again, in try mode · Not live yet, gaps #7\nconst { decisions: [decision] } = await $.Decision.list({ where: `on = \"${subject}\"` })   // what it chose, and why · Not live yet, gaps #7\nconst { actions } = await $.Action.list({ where: `on = \"${subject}\"` })   // what it did, with its checks · Not live yet, gaps #7\nreturn { decision, actions }",
    "mode": "try"
  }
}

 1{
 2  "decision": {
 3    "$id": "https://api.sb/leaseline.app/decisions/decision_503",
 4    "$type": "Decision",
 5    "choice": "winner-promotion",
 6    "reason": "post_31 won its free read on saves per 1,000 views (14.2 against 6.1, n 8,400); every claim maps to an approved Page, and Dana’s sponsor grant is on",
 7    "stakes": "medium",
 8    "options": [
 9      "winner-promotion",
10      "promotion-queue",
11      "tier-gate",
12      "promotion-intake",
13      "promoted-comment-desk"
14    ],
15  …

action_1 draws the 12 served and 12 held-out regions. action_3 is the paused, fenced Ad behind Dana’s own post under her sponsor grant; it waits for your approval because every send of this Tactic does.

≈ +$430 ARR a month at $340

Worth

30 min week 1, then 15 a week

Your time

$30 per added Lead, $340 a month at tier 1

Spend

Day 3: the first Lead from a promoted post

First signal

a free winner, $300+ a month to spend

Use it when

No free winner: organic-social · under $300: set a budget (PlayMix.compile)

Not yet when

Worth’s formula: about +3.3 Leads per $100 × $340 a month × 0.11 Leads to paid (your last 90 days) × $347 Pro ARR ≈ +$428. Under First signal: One 28-day region holdout per tier: about 8 weeks to tell +3 Leads per $100 at $340 a month; under $300, 90 days can tell only +9 or more.

Also runs as: Creator ads.

Start it this weekCopy Anchor Link

npx startup-builder add play promote-winners   # 1 · writes plays/promote-winners.mdx (Not live yet, gaps #5)

# 2 · dry run; below, its 422 on 2026-08-24
curl -X POST "https://api.sb/leaseline.app/campaigns?mode=try" \
  -H "Authorization: Bearer $STARTUP_BUILDER_API_KEY" \
  -H "Content-Type: application/json" \
  -d '{"play":"promote-winners"}'

# 3 · keep it, at You approve each one
curl -X POST https://api.sb/leaseline.app/campaigns \
  -H "Authorization: Bearer $STARTUP_BUILDER_API_KEY" \
  -H "Content-Type: application/json" \
  -d '{"play":"promote-winners"}'

# on
curl -X PATCH https://api.sb/leaseline.app/campaigns/promote-winners \
  -H "Authorization: Bearer $STARTUP_BUILDER_API_KEY" \
  -H "Content-Type: application/json" \
  -d '{"endsAt":null}'

# off: every Ad pauses; free posts stay up
curl -X PATCH https://api.sb/leaseline.app/campaigns/promote-winners \
  -H "Authorization: Bearer $STARTUP_BUILDER_API_KEY" \
  -H "Content-Type: application/json" \
  -d '{"endsAt":"now"}'

{
  "type": "https://startupbuilder.dev/errors/refused",
  "title": "Refused",
  "status": 422,
  "detail": "promote-winners can’t start yet: 1 check fails and 1 warns.",
  "checks": [
    {
      "check": "use-when",
      "status": "pass",
      "observed": "2 free winners in 30 days; a $340 monthly Demand Budget",
      "doc": "/plays/promote-winners#check-use-when",
      "fix": "Keep a winner and $300 a month, or run organic-social first.",
      "then": "Metric.query"
    },
    {
      "check": "baseline",
      "status": "pass",
      "observed": "1.9 Leads per $100 on boosted posts, n 6 in 90 days",
      "doc": "/plays/promote-winners#check-baseline",
      "fix": "Read it once; it fills Before in Your number.",
      "then": "Metric.query"
    },
    {
      "check": "spend-limit",
      "status": "fail",
      "observed": "no monthly Limit on ad spend",
      "doc": "/plays/promote-winners#check-spend-limit",
      "fix": "Set a $340 monthly spend Limit; the Play pauses at it.",
      "then": "Limit.raise"
    },
    {
      "check": "role-unstaffed",
      "status": "warn",
      "roles": [
        "marketing-lead",
        "content-lead"
      ],
      "owned": 0,
      "doc": "/plays/promote-winners#check-role-unstaffed",
      "fix": "Staff the Marketing Lead, or leave it: approvals and hard comments come to you.",
      "then": "Role.staff"
    }
  ]
}

The Ads cost what the Venues bill, capped at $340 a month by your Limit: about $30 for each added Lead at tier 1. Reading each arm and answering comments costs about $0.30 a day (Worker cost). At the $300 Use it when line, about $27 an added Lead.

When it startsCopy Anchor Link

{
  "$id": "https://api.sb/leaseline.app/events/event_4120",
  "$type": "Event",
  "name": "Experiment.concluded",
  "at": "2026-10-18T16:30:00Z",
  "seq": 4120,
  "data": {
    "experiment": "experiment_9",
    "post": "post_31",
    "venue": "linkedin",
    "verdict": "winner",
    "read": "saves per 1,000 views",
    "winner": 14.2,
    "control": 6.1,
    "n": 8400
  }
}

npx startup-builder trigger Experiment.concluded --like event_4120   # replays the verdict
npx startup-builder clock advance --by 28d   # closes the region holdout and runs the tier read
npx startup-builder listen Experiment.concluded --forward-to http://localhost:3000/hook

Who runs itCopy Anchor Link

Paid media · your agent (role:paid-media-manager, worker_7) holds the Key Result. Content Lead · your agent (worker_6) answers comments on promoted posts. Every Ad and every tier raise comes to you (Dana Okafor, person, worker_1) for approval, and hard comments come to you, because the Marketing Lead Role has no person. Your number links to Did it work.

What it reads · What it may call. It reads the free read’s verdict, the Ad’s spend and counted conversions from Stripe, and the held-out regions. It writes Ads only through the proxy, and every change outside the approved state is undone on the daily read (drift).

You hold the paid media Key Result: 4.0 added Leads per $100 by 2026-12-31.      ← worker, metric
On each Trigger, pick the Tactic that runs and say why.                          ← triggers, tactics
Promote only a winner on a behavior read, as it is; any edit is a new arm.       ← copyRules 2; intake
Start at $10 a day; raise a tier only on a winning region holdout.               ← your file, lines 4–5
Never claim a count you did not earn; never hide a critical comment.             ← copyRules 3, 8
A Price in an Ad equals the Offer’s live Price.                                  ← copyRules 9; price

The slow loop. The weekly Decisions kept both tier lines, and no Change was merged in the window, so there is no replay or read-back to print. The tier raise on day 29 was a Decision on the Readout, never a change to the rule.

Bring your own agent (folded) starts at You approve each one whatever it scores, because every Ad spends your money; POST /{namespace}/roles/{role}/staff seats it.

npx startup-builder eval --scenario promote-winners-24 --agent "claude -p" --seat paid-media-manager   # seated: +3.3 Leads per $100, 0 Checks failed served, every arm paused on time · yours: +2.6, 1 arm paused late

What it can do nextCopy Anchor Link

When it hands to youCopy Anchor Link

Every Ad, every tier raise and every hard comment comes to you: the founder seat approves spend, and the Marketing Lead Role has no person. What lands in your queue, as captured (draft and checks are Not live yet, gaps #7).

[
  {
    "$id": "https://api.sb/leaseline.app/approvals/approval_83",
    "$type": "Approval",
    "verdict": null,
    "deadline": "2026-10-20T17:00:00Z",
    "draft": "Sponsor post_31 on LinkedIn at $10 a day in 12 served regions; 12 held out",
    "route": "winner-promotion",
    "checks": [
      {
        "check": "claims-resolve",
        "status": "pass"
      },
      {
        "check": "tier-gate",
        "status": "pass"
      }
    ]
  },
  {
    "$id": "https://api.sb/leaseline.app/tasks/task_562",
    "$type": "Task",
    "assignee": "worker_1",
    "due": "2026-09-30T17:00:00Z",
    "on": "post_24",
    "brief": {
      "who": "a commenter on the move-in checklist reel",
      "said": "Is this the same tool my landlord uses to raise rent?",
      "chose": "promoted-comment-desk",
      "why": "a hard comment goes to a person; it stays up",
      "never": [
        "hide it",
        "delete it"
      ]
    }
  }
]

You answer with POST /{namespace}/approvals/{approval}/approve or POST /{namespace}/approvals/{approval}/refuse, POST /{namespace}/tasks/{task}/claim (Take this one), POST /{namespace}/tasks/{task}/return with a reason, or POST /{namespace}/actions/{action}/redirect, each a one-call window. An Approval unanswered by its deadline expires, and the Ad stays paused. A Task nobody claims by its due time goes up a Role through POST /{namespace}/tasks/{task}/escalate, and person-promise fires.

On time: you, 6 of 6 within 1 business day, median 3 h, n 6, ■□□□ Too early to tell beside Other Startups’ 91 % on time. Your queue: in week 1, 2 approvals and 1 weekly review; then about 1 approval and 1 hard comment a week.

The fixed line: POST /{namespace}/deals/{deal}/assign sets owner to the receiving person, the agent is never a Deal’s owner, and Meetings land on the owner’s calendar under the owner’s name.

When it won’t sendCopy Anchor Link

The captured refusal, then the Stop that fired as a Campaign.paused reason (Not live yet, gaps #2); the arm that ran instead is the move-in reel in Example.

{
  "type": "https://startupbuilder.dev/errors/refused",
  "title": "Refused",
  "status": 422,
  "detail": "The Ad for the move-in reel did not run: its caption was edited after the free read.",
  "checks": [
    {
      "check": "read-lock",
      "status": "fail",
      "doc": "/plays/promote-winners#check-read-lock",
      "fix": "Start a new arm with the change; the read stays clean.",
      "then": "Ad.create"
    },
    {
      "check": "claims-resolve",
      "status": "pass"
    }
  ]
}

[
  {
    "reason": {
      "limit": "arm",
      "observed": "$61 with 0 counted conversions",
      "bound": "3 × $19 allowed cost",
      "window": "arm_4"
    },
    "doc": "/plays/promote-winners#stop-arm",
    "task": "task_548"
  }
]

Did it workCopy Anchor Link

The 24 metro regions were split at random, 12 served and 12 held out, for each 28-day read (rules m–o); each figure’s call is POST /{namespace}/metrics/query by node and by arm, and every node above the leaf is Not live yet (gaps #4).

{
  "$id": "decisions/decision_503",
  "$type": "Decision",
  "choice": "winner-promotion",
  "reason": "post_31 won its free read on saves per 1,000 views (14.2 against 6.1, n 8,400); every claim maps to an approved Page, and Dana’s sponsor grant is on",
  "stakes": "medium",
  "options": [
    "winner-promotion",
    "promotion-queue",
    "tier-gate",
    "promotion-intake",
    "promoted-comment-desk"
  ],
  "by": "worker_7",
  "on": "post_31",
  "expected": "3.0 or more added Leads per $100 in served regions by day 28",
  "reopensWhen": "the arm passes 2 times its allowed cost after 50 bid events"
}

The leaf counts new Leads per $100 of promoted spend in served regions against held-out regions over each 28-day holdout, to 10 regions in each half; both reads are in, and tier 2’s read closes on Nov 16.

How it moves it: each dollar ran behind a post people had already saved and shared on their own, as it was, at a median $19 per click-through to the trial Page.

Guardrails: served against held out: paid per Lead, 0.11 against 0.06 (new-paying-customers per Lead), and refunds on promoted conversions, 0 of 4 against 0 of 1.

{
  "$id": "https://api.sb/leaseline.app/campaigns/promote-winners",
  "$type": "Campaign",
  "play": "play:promote-winners@1",
  "path": [
    "promoted-lead-lift",
    "new-leads",
    "new-arr",
    "net-new-arr",
    "arr"
  ],
  "experiment": {
    "metric": "promoted-lead-lift",
    "unit": "ratio",
    "heldBack": 12,
    "decision": null
  },
  "readout": {
    "value": 3.3,
    "n": 24,
    "maturing": 0,
    "interval": [
      0.4,
      6.2
    ],
    "readability": "C",
    "basis": "held-back",
    "pooled": false
  },
  "ledger": {
    "spend": 640,
    "workerCost": 17,
    "hours": 2.1,
    "pipelineArr": 0,
    "wonArr": 1388,
    "projectedArr": 428,
    "paybackDays": 168
  }
}

Outside benchmark: this Play’s catalog record carries no sourced range yet, so Other Startups’ results stand in: +2.4 added Leads per $100, ■■■□ Likely, n 312 regions.

Before it · After it. Before it: organic-social, founder-voice and video-ladder hand it their free winners; creator-ads runs inside it. After it: instant-response answers the Leads, and retargeting reads the visitors the Ads sent.

ExampleCopy Anchor Link

Leaseline ran it from 2026-08-24 to 2026-10-19 (56 days): 6 candidates, 3 promoted, 2 refused at intake and 1 queued, at tier 1 ($10 a day) for 28 days and tier 2 ($14 a day) after. Read every captured thread at ?threads=all; three follow the tables.

Dana’s LinkedIn post, sponsored under her grant, Sep 22 · “We lost 3 renewals last spring because the notices went out late. So we built the 60-day reminder into Leaseline.”¹

A property manager in Denver, served region, Sep 24 · clicked through, started a trial, and paid for Pro on Oct 9. Invoice.collected, +$347 ARR, credited to the promoted post.²

- arm_2 (live): caption edited to “Trusted by 10,000 managers. Try it free.”
+ arm_5 (new arm): the winning caption as it won, “Our move-in checklist, the one we use ourselves.”

A commenter on the move-in reel, 2026-09-29 13:12 · “Is this the same tool my landlord uses to raise rent?” · Leaseline, 13:14 · *Thanks for asking. Dana, our founder, answers questions like this and replies here by tomorrow 17:00.*³ The comment stays up; the Brief went to you (task_562), and you replied at 15:40.

¹ The winner itself, unedited: any edit would make it a new arm. ² Credit by the coded link on the Ad; counted from Stripe, never from the Venue’s own count. ³ The routed line, compiled from the Role’s Settings.

Your settingsCopy Anchor Link

---
holdout: regions   # 24 metros, half held out at random for each 28-day read
---
Promote only posts that won on saves, clicks or signups, as they are. 3 paid slots.
Start at $10 a day; raise a tier only on a winning region read.

$ npx startup-builder show plays/promote-winners
holdout regions · 3 slots · tier 1 $10 a day · tier on a winning read     your file  plays/promote-winners.mdx:2,4,5 (Ask 2026-08-24)
worker role:paid-media-manager, owns never · chooses none (D38): the Decision picks a Tactic · approval every-send · checks intake, claims-resolve, disclosure, read-lock, tier-gate, price · stops 14 (12 on every lane) · placements facebook, instagram, tiktok, youtube, linkedin, reddit, google-search, bing    catalog  play:promote-winners@1 (Not live yet, gaps #5)

Every key from the catalogCopy Anchor Link

Compiled, not written: edit the Play record promote-winners and its Leaseline run, then regenerate. Every step runs from a sentence or a line of code. In your words: the CRM words you know, and where each lives here.