Risk-reversal offers

npx startup-builder add play risk-reversal-offers   # 1 · writes plays/risk-reversal-offers.mdx (Not live yet, gaps #5)

# 2 · dry run; below, its 422 on 2026-06-29
curl -X POST "https://api.sb/leaseline.app/campaigns?mode=try" \
  -H "Authorization: Bearer $STARTUP_BUILDER_API_KEY" \
  -H "Content-Type: application/json" \
  -d '{"play":"risk-reversal-offers"}'

# 3 · keep it, at You approve each one
curl -X POST https://api.sb/leaseline.app/campaigns \
  -H "Authorization: Bearer $STARTUP_BUILDER_API_KEY" \
  -H "Content-Type: application/json" \
  -d '{"play":"risk-reversal-offers"}'

# on
curl -X PATCH https://api.sb/leaseline.app/campaigns/risk-reversal-offers \
  -H "Authorization: Bearer $STARTUP_BUILDER_API_KEY" \
  -H "Content-Type: application/json" \
  -d '{"endsAt":null}'

# off: no new guarantees; owed waivers and in-terms refunds still pay
curl -X PATCH https://api.sb/leaseline.app/campaigns/risk-reversal-offers \
  -H "Authorization: Bearer $STARTUP_BUILDER_API_KEY" \
  -H "Content-Type: application/json" \
  -d '{"endsAt":"now"}'

{
  "$id": "https://api.sb/leaseline.app/events/event_9540",
  "$type": "Event",
  "name": "Offer.trialed",
  "at": "2026-10-19T11:20:05Z",
  "seq": 9540,
  "data": {
    "customer": "customer_66",
    "offer": "leaseline-team",
    "days": 14,
    "card": false,
    "block": 8,
    "guarantee": true
  }
}

npx startup-builder trigger Offer.trialed --like event_9540   # replays the trial start
npx startup-builder clock advance --by 14d   # runs the day-12 notice and the drop to Free
npx startup-builder listen Offer.trialed --forward-to http://localhost:3000/hook

You hold the CSM Key Result: 30 kept paid per 100 trials at day 60 by 2026-12-31. ← worker, metric
On each Trigger, choose one option and say why.                                  ← triggers, chooses
The bar: 6 renewal notices sent in the first 30 paid days, or the month back.    ← your file, line 4
Pay a waiver unasked; a window you cannot score pays.                            ← customer-side
State the exact terms in force for that person, and the sheet link.              ← copyRules 1, 11; tactic risk-answer
Never mention a refund they did not ask about, except the verdict.               ← copyRules 12

npx startup-builder eval --scenario risk-reversal-offers-160 --agent "claude -p" --seat success-manager   # seated: every waiver paid unasked, 0 Checks failed sent, refund p95 6 s · yours: 1 waiver paid a day late

[
  {
    "$id": "https://api.sb/leaseline.app/tasks/task_833",
    "$type": "Task",
    "assignee": "worker_1",
    "due": "2026-10-15T17:00:00Z",
    "on": "customer_61",
    "brief": {
      "who": "Fernhill Property Co, trial",
      "said": "Can you move our 46 units from a spreadsheet?",
      "chose": "move-their-data",
      "why": "free migration is part of the Offer",
      "dryRun": "46 units, 52 leases mapped; 3 rows with no lease end",
      "never": [
        "a charge for the move"
      ]
    }
  },
  {
    "$id": "https://api.sb/leaseline.app/tasks/task_821",
    "$type": "Task",
    "assignee": "worker_3",
    "due": "2026-10-08T15:00:00Z",
    "on": "customer_58",
    "brief": {
      "who": "Northgate Residential, 220 units",
      "said": "Would you guarantee it for our whole portfolio?",
      "chose": "to-the-ae",
      "why": "terms beyond the sheet",
      "never": [
        "a bar the sheet does not hold",
        "risk-free"
      ]
    }
  }
]

[
  {
    "reason": {
      "limit": "migration-cap",
      "observed": "$16.40",
      "bound": "$14.50, half of Pro’s first month",
      "window": "the Harbor Row move"
    },
    "doc": "/plays/risk-reversal-offers#stop-migration-cap",
    "task": "task_806"
  }
]

{
  "$id": "https://api.sb/leaseline.app/campaigns/risk-reversal-offers",
  "$type": "Campaign",
  "play": "play:risk-reversal-offers@1",
  "path": [
    "guarantee-lift",
    "new-paying-customers",
    "new-arr",
    "net-new-arr",
    "arr"
  ],
  "experiment": {
    "metric": "guarantee-lift",
    "unit": "per-100",
    "heldBack": 80,
    "decision": null
  },
  "readout": {
    "value": 11.7,
    "n": 94,
    "maturing": 66,
    "interval": [
      -5.7,
      29.1
    ],
    "readability": "inadmissible",
    "basis": "alternating-weeks",
    "pooled": false
  },
  "ledger": {
    "spend": 87,
    "workerCost": 144,
    "hours": 3.4,
    "pipelineArr": 2400,
    "wonArr": 5205,
    "projectedArr": 1746,
    "paybackDays": 20
  }
}

- Don’t worry, Leaseline is completely risk-free.
+ If you send fewer than 6 renewal notices in your first 30 paid days, your first month is credited back automatically. Refunds are one press for 14 days.

---
holdout: blocks    # two-week blocks with and without the guarantee, at random
---
Every new account gets Team free for 14 days, no card, then Free.
The bar: 6 renewal notices in the first 30 paid days, or the first month back, unasked.
Refunds are one press for 14 days; data moves are free.

$ npx startup-builder show plays/risk-reversal-offers
holdout blocks · reverse trial Team 14 days · bar 6 notices in 30 days · refund 14 days     your file  plays/risk-reversal-offers.mdx:2,4,5,6 (Ask 2026-06-29)
worker role:success-manager, owns never · chooses 7 (4 rule, 3 read) · sequences reverse-trial-notices, guarantee-notices, refund-confirmation, migration-updates · approval every-send · checks owned-by-a-person, claims-resolve, price, exit-never-waits, bar-cap, sheet-lock, customer-side, trial-cost, evaluator-lock, obligation-void, cluster, count-check (+2 on store and listing lanes) · stops 8 · placements google-search, bing, gmail, outlook, yahoo-mail    catalog  play:risk-reversal-offers@1 (Not live yet, gaps #5)