LinkedIn outbound

# Not live yet (gaps #2)
curl -X POST "https://api.sb/leaseline.app/campaigns?mode=try" \
  -H "Authorization: Bearer $STARTUP_BUILDER_API_KEY" \
  -H "Content-Type: application/json" \
  -d '{"play":"linkedin-outbound"}'

 1import { $ } from 'startup-builder'
 2
 3return await $.Campaign.create({ play: 'linkedin-outbound' }, { mode: 'try' })   // dry run on the day-0 Startup, 2026-08-24 · Not live yet, gaps #2

npx startup-builder do Campaign.create --json '{"play":"linkedin-outbound"}' --try   # Not live yet (gaps #2)

{
  "name": "do",
  "arguments": {
    "code": "return await $.Campaign.create({ play: 'linkedin-outbound' }, { mode: 'try' })   // dry run on the day-0 Startup, 2026-08-24 · Not live yet, gaps #2",
    "mode": "try"
  }
}

 1{
 2  "type": "https://startupbuilder.dev/errors/refused",
 3  "title": "Refused",
 4  "status": 422,
 5  "detail": "linkedin-outbound can’t start: 2 checks fail and 1 warns.",
 6  "checks": [
 7    {
 8      "check": "use-when",
 9      "status": "pass",
10      "observed": "Dana, a person, profile 6 years old; 1,180 ICP-fit Prospects",
11      "doc": "/plays/linkedin-outbound#check-use-when",
12      "then": "Metric.query"
13    },
14    {
15  …

curl "https://api.sb/leaseline.app/events?where=name%20in%20(%22Person.announced%22%2C%20%22Person.posted%22%2C%20%22Person.commented%22%2C%20%22Person.reacted%22%2C%20%22Event.captured%22%2C%20%22Contact.imported%22%2C%20%22Person.connected%22%2C%20%22Message.replied%22)&limit=1" \
  -H "Authorization: Bearer $STARTUP_BUILDER_API_KEY"

# Not live yet (gaps #7)
curl -X POST "https://api.sb/leaseline.app/triggers/fire?mode=try" \
  -H "Authorization: Bearer $STARTUP_BUILDER_API_KEY" \
  -H "Content-Type: application/json" \
  -d '{"like":"event_1217"}'

# Not live yet (gaps #7)
curl "https://api.sb/leaseline.app/decisions?where=on%20%3D%20%22prospect_88%22" \
  -H "Authorization: Bearer $STARTUP_BUILDER_API_KEY"

# Not live yet (gaps #7)
curl "https://api.sb/leaseline.app/actions?where=on%20%3D%20%22prospect_88%22" \
  -H "Authorization: Bearer $STARTUP_BUILDER_API_KEY"

 1import { $ } from 'startup-builder'
 2
 3const { events: [last] } = await $.Event.list({ where: 'name in ("Person.announced", "Person.posted", "Person.commented", "Person.reacted", "Event.captured", "Contact.imported", "Person.connected", "Message.replied")', limit: 1 })   // { play } compiled to this Play’s Trigger Events
 4const { subject } = await $.Trigger.fire({ like: last.$id }, { mode: 'try' })   // the same Event again, in try mode · Not live yet, gaps #7
 5const { decisions: [decision] } = await $.Decision.list({ where: `on = "${subject}"` })   // what it chose, and why · Not live yet, gaps #7
 6const { actions } = await $.Action.list({ where: `on = "${subject}"` })   // what it did, with its checks · Not live yet, gaps #7
 7return { decision, actions }

npx startup-builder do Event.list --json '{"where":"name in (\"Person.announced\", \"Person.posted\", \"Person.commented\", \"Person.reacted\", \"Event.captured\", \"Contact.imported\", \"Person.connected\", \"Message.replied\")","limit":1}'
npx startup-builder do Trigger.fire --json '{"like":"event_1217"}' --try   # Not live yet (gaps #7)
npx startup-builder do Decision.list --json '{"where":"on = \"prospect_88\""}'   # Not live yet (gaps #7)
npx startup-builder do Action.list --json '{"where":"on = \"prospect_88\""}'   # Not live yet (gaps #7)

{
  "name": "do",
  "arguments": {
    "code": "const { events: [last] } = await $.Event.list({ where: 'name in (\"Person.announced\", \"Person.posted\", \"Person.commented\", \"Person.reacted\", \"Event.captured\", \"Contact.imported\", \"Person.connected\", \"Message.replied\")', limit: 1 })   // { play } compiled to this Play’s Trigger Events\nconst { subject } = await $.Trigger.fire({ like: last.$id }, { mode: 'try' })   // the same Event again, in try mode · Not live yet, gaps #7\nconst { decisions: [decision] } = await $.Decision.list({ where: `on = \"${subject}\"` })   // what it chose, and why · Not live yet, gaps #7\nconst { actions } = await $.Action.list({ where: `on = \"${subject}\"` })   // what it did, with its checks · Not live yet, gaps #7\nreturn { decision, actions }",
    "mode": "try"
  }
}

 1{
 2  "decision": {
 3    "$id": "https://api.sb/leaseline.app/decisions/decision_443",
 4    "$type": "Decision",
 5    "choice": "request-with-a-note",
 6    "reason": "Jo Rivera announced on Oct 14 that she started as Head of Operations at Summit Lane Properties (220 units); her post names renewals as her first project",
 7    "stakes": "low",
 8    "options": [
 9      "request-with-a-note",
10      "request-no-note",
11      "message-a-connection",
12      "after-they-accept",
13      "to-the-ae",
14      "not-now"
15  …

action_1 checked her identity off LinkedIn. action_3 puts the note in your tray for tomorrow’s 08:30 sitting; you copy it and send it in LinkedIn yourself.

≈ +$980 ARR a month at 340

Worth

3 h week 1, then 2.5 h a week

Your time

$0.05 per Person researched, ~$26 a month

Spend

Day 6: first Meeting booked from LinkedIn

First signal

a person who sends from their own profile, 200+ fits

Use it when

No person to press send: cold-email · under 200 fits: founder-voice

Not yet when

Worth’s formula: about +6.1 Leads per 100 eligible (held back at random, one node above the leaf) × 340 eligible a month × 0.08 Leads to paid × $590 first order ARR ≈ +$979. Under First signal: About 16 weeks to tell a +6.1 lift at 340 eligible a month with 1 in 10 held back; at 56 days it reads Too early to tell.

Start it this weekCopy Anchor Link

npx startup-builder add play linkedin-outbound   # 1 · writes plays/linkedin-outbound.mdx (Not live yet, gaps #5)

# 2 · dry run; below, its 422 on 2026-08-24
curl -X POST "https://api.sb/leaseline.app/campaigns?mode=try" \
  -H "Authorization: Bearer $STARTUP_BUILDER_API_KEY" \
  -H "Content-Type: application/json" \
  -d '{"play":"linkedin-outbound"}'

# 3 · keep it: you press every send
curl -X POST https://api.sb/leaseline.app/campaigns \
  -H "Authorization: Bearer $STARTUP_BUILDER_API_KEY" \
  -H "Content-Type: application/json" \
  -d '{"play":"linkedin-outbound"}'

# on
curl -X PATCH https://api.sb/leaseline.app/campaigns/linkedin-outbound \
  -H "Authorization: Bearer $STARTUP_BUILDER_API_KEY" \
  -H "Content-Type: application/json" \
  -d '{"endsAt":null}'

# off: the tray empties; nothing was ever sent without you
curl -X PATCH https://api.sb/leaseline.app/campaigns/linkedin-outbound \
  -H "Authorization: Bearer $STARTUP_BUILDER_API_KEY" \
  -H "Content-Type: application/json" \
  -d '{"endsAt":"now"}'

{
  "type": "https://startupbuilder.dev/errors/refused",
  "title": "Refused",
  "status": 422,
  "detail": "linkedin-outbound can’t start: 2 checks fail and 1 warns.",
  "checks": [
    {
      "check": "use-when",
      "status": "pass",
      "observed": "Dana, a person, profile 6 years old; 1,180 ICP-fit Prospects",
      "doc": "/plays/linkedin-outbound#check-use-when",
      "then": "Metric.query"
    },
    {
      "check": "baseline",
      "status": "pass",
      "observed": "9.2 replies with words per 100 of your own requests, n 120 in 90 days",
      "doc": "/plays/linkedin-outbound#check-baseline",
      "then": "Metric.query"
    },
    {
      "check": "inbound-source",
      "status": "fail",
      "doc": "/plays/linkedin-outbound#check-inbound-source",
      "fix": "Forward LinkedIn notification emails to linkedin@in.leaseline.app so a reply stops the Sequence.",
      "then": "Integration.connect"
    },
    {
      "check": "connections-file",
      "status": "fail",
      "doc": "/plays/linkedin-outbound#check-connections-file",
      "fix": "Upload your LinkedIn connections export; the monthly sweep finds dormant fits in it.",
      "then": "Contact.import"
    },
    {
      "check": "role-unstaffed",
      "status": "warn",
      "roles": [
        "sales-lead"
      ],
      "owned": 9,
      "doc": "/plays/linkedin-outbound#check-role-unstaffed",
      "fix": "Staff the AE, or leave it: positive replies come to you.",
      "then": "Role.staff"
    }
  ]
}

Requests and Messages cost nothing: you send them from your own profile, and a paid Message spends your own LinkedIn credits. Research costs about $0.05 a Person (Worker cost), about $26 a month at 120 a week. Your time is the cost: about 2.5 hours a week in the tray.

When it startsCopy Anchor Link

{
  "$id": "https://api.sb/leaseline.app/events/event_1217",
  "$type": "Event",
  "name": "Person.announced",
  "at": "2026-10-19T07:05:44Z",
  "seq": 1217,
  "data": {
    "prospect": "prospects/prospect_88",
    "name": "Jo Rivera",
    "organization": "Summit Lane Properties",
    "units": 220,
    "kind": "new-role",
    "announced": "2026-10-14",
    "source": "a public post"
  }
}

# each delivery is signed with the Watch’s secret
curl -X POST https://api.sb/leaseline.app/watches \
  -H "Authorization: Bearer $STARTUP_BUILDER_API_KEY" \
  -H "Content-Type: application/json" \
  -d '{"selector":"Person.announced","url":"https://leaseline.app/hooks/sb"}'
npx startup-builder trigger Person.announced --like event_1217   # replays the delivery into tomorrow’s tray
npx startup-builder clock advance --by 14d   # withdraws the request if it is still pending

Who runs itCopy Anchor Link

SDR · your agent (role:prospector, worker_2) holds the Key Result: it sets the week’s slots, picks, checks identities and drafts. Every request and Message hands to you (Dana Okafor, person, worker_1), who sends it from your own profile; positive replies go to AE · Priya Shah (person) (role:sales-lead, worker_3, staffed on day 9). On LinkedIn the ladder stops at You approve each one.

What it reads · What it may call. It reads public posts, the lists you paste, your connections export and forwarded notifications, and never your LinkedIn login. A Visit may raise a Prospect’s rank but never appears in a note. It may call POST /{namespace}/contacts/{contact}/enrich, POST /{namespace}/content/draft and POST /{namespace}/tasks/{task}/assign; you send. Its tools are POST /{namespace}/tasks/{task}/assign, POST /{namespace}/meetings/book, and any other call becomes an Approval under the Role’s Mandate.

You hold the SDR Key Result: 15 replies with words per 100 requests by 2026-12-31. ← worker, metric
Each morning, choose one option for each candidate and say why; no angle is Not now. ← triggers, chooses
Queue at most 80 requests a week, and 16 a day.                                  ← your file, line 3
A note runs 280 characters or fewer, with no link, price or ask beyond connecting. ← copyRules 1
A first Message runs 80 words or fewer, with one question; a calendar link waits for a yes. ← copyRules 2
Never name a Visit, a rival or the rival’s post.                                 ← copyRules 4, 6, watched-event

The slow loop, as a Change. decision_401 (2026-09-21, weekly) read acceptance at 31 % on announced moments and 18 % on reactors with no note, so change_32 moved 20 weekly slots from reactors to announced moments (your file, line 4), and Dana merged it with POST /{namespace}/changes/{change}/merge. Replayed on past picks, POST /{namespace}/changes/{change}/review put acceptance at 29 %; read back at +21d it is 28 %, n 230, ■■□□ Early sign (Example, day 49).

Bring your own agent (folded) picks and drafts at the same rung when it matches or beats the seated agent on the eval suite; you press every send either way, and POST /{namespace}/roles/{role}/staff seats it.

npx startup-builder eval --scenario linkedin-outbound-588 --agent "claude -p" --seat prospector   # seated: 13.9 per 100, 0 watched Events drafted, 2 wrong people · yours: 12.4, 1 Visit drafted, 5 wrong people → fix the identity check first

What it can do nextCopy Anchor Link

When it hands to youCopy Anchor Link

Every request and Message hands to you (Dana Okafor, person) to send; positive replies go to AE · Priya Shah (person), and before day 9 they came to you. As captured, one Brief per Role (brief is Not live yet, gaps #7).

[
  {
    "$id": "https://api.sb/leaseline.app/tasks/task_533",
    "$type": "Task",
    "assignee": "worker_1",
    "due": "2026-10-20T08:30:00Z",
    "on": "prospect_88",
    "brief": {
      "who": "Jo Rivera, Head of Operations, Summit Lane Properties (220 units)",
      "reason": "her post, 2026-10-14: started, renewals her first project",
      "note": "Jo, congrats on Summit Lane. Your post says renewals come first; that is all we work on. Happy to connect.",
      "chose": "request-with-a-note",
      "never": [
        "a link",
        "a price",
        "a Visit"
      ]
    }
  },
  {
    "$id": "https://api.sb/leaseline.app/tasks/task_491",
    "$type": "Task",
    "assignee": "worker_3",
    "due": "2026-10-09T11:05:00Z",
    "on": "lead_47",
    "brief": {
      "who": "Nico Park, Ashby Residential, 130 units",
      "said": "Sure, show me how the owner batches work.",
      "chose": "to-the-ae",
      "why": "a positive reply",
      "times": [
        "Tue 10:00",
        "Tue 15:00",
        "Wed 11:00 Central"
      ],
      "never": [
        "a discount",
        "terms"
      ]
    }
  }
]

You answer a tray item by sending it in LinkedIn, with POST /{namespace}/tasks/{task}/return and a reason, or with POST /{namespace}/actions/{action}/redirect. The AE answers with POST /{namespace}/tasks/{task}/claim (Take this one), POST /{namespace}/tasks/{task}/return with a reason, or POST /{namespace}/actions/{action}/redirect; once claimed, the agent’s queued Messages to that Person cancel with claimedByPerson (Not live yet, gaps #7). A Task nobody claims by its due time goes up a Role through POST /{namespace}/tasks/{task}/escalate (AE to you), and 3 business days with no tray action stop picking (tray-silence).

On time: AE · Priya Shah: 11 of 12 claimed within 60 min, median 26 min, n 12. You: 802 of 825 tray items sent by your next sitting, n 825, ■■■□ Likely beside Other Startups’ 88 %. Your queue: counted by kind: about 16 requests and 6 Messages a sitting, 1 sitting a business day, and 1 weekly readout.

The fixed line: POST /{namespace}/deals/{deal}/assign sets owner to the receiving person, the agent is never a Deal’s owner, and Meetings land on the owner’s calendar under the owner’s name.

When it won’t sendCopy Anchor Link

The captured refusal, then the Stop that fired as a Campaign.paused reason (Not live yet, gaps #2); the rewrite you sent is the Delmar thread in Example.

{
  "type": "https://startupbuilder.dev/errors/refused",
  "title": "Refused",
  "status": 422,
  "detail": "The note to Delmar Homes did not reach your tray: it names a Visit to the pricing Page.",
  "checks": [
    {
      "check": "watched-event",
      "status": "fail",
      "doc": "/plays/linkedin-outbound#check-watched-event",
      "fix": "Cut it; lead with what they announced.",
      "then": "Content.draft"
    },
    {
      "check": "fact-check",
      "status": "pass"
    }
  ]
}

[
  {
    "reason": {
      "limit": "tray-silence",
      "observed": "3 business days",
      "bound": "3 business days",
      "window": "the tray"
    },
    "doc": "/plays/linkedin-outbound#stop-tray-silence",
    "task": "task_466"
  }
]

Did it workCopy Anchor Link

The held-back tenth gets no request, so the leaf, replies per 100 requests, reads before-after against your own requests; one node up, Leads per 100 eligible Prospects reads both halves from the same random assignment (rules m–o). Each figure’s call is POST /{namespace}/metrics/query by node and by arm; every node above the leaf is Not live yet (gaps #4).

{
  "$id": "decisions/decision_443",
  "$type": "Decision",
  "choice": "request-with-a-note",
  "reason": "Jo Rivera announced on Oct 14 that she started as Head of Operations at Summit Lane Properties (220 units); her post names renewals as her first project",
  "stakes": "low",
  "options": [
    "request-with-a-note",
    "request-no-note",
    "message-a-connection",
    "after-they-accept",
    "to-the-ae",
    "not-now"
  ],
  "by": "worker_2",
  "on": "prospect_88",
  "expected": "accepted and a reply with words within 30d",
  "reopensWhen": "no Person.connected for prospect_88 within 14d"
}

Leads count Persons who accept and reply with words, or reply on any channel, within 30 days, per 100 eligible Prospects assigned once the identity check has run, read to 200 matured in each half; at 246 and 27 the held-back half runs on.

How it moves it: each request carries one reason the Person announced, sent from your own profile, and acceptance on announced moments ran 31 % against 18 % for reactors with no note.

Guardrails: treated against held back: play-sourced-customers, 3 against 0, and removal asks, 1 in 214 Messages; no Venue warning fired.

{
  "$id": "https://api.sb/leaseline.app/campaigns/linkedin-outbound",
  "$type": "Campaign",
  "play": "play:linkedin-outbound@1",
  "path": [
    "linkedin-reply-rate",
    "new-leads",
    "new-arr",
    "net-new-arr",
    "arr"
  ],
  "experiment": {
    "metric": "new-leads",
    "unit": "per-100",
    "heldBack": 59,
    "decision": null
  },
  "readout": {
    "value": 6.1,
    "n": 273,
    "maturing": 316,
    "interval": [
      -1.9,
      14.1
    ],
    "readability": "inadmissible",
    "basis": "held-back",
    "pooled": false
  },
  "ledger": {
    "spend": 0,
    "workerCost": 48,
    "hours": 21,
    "pipelineArr": 5340,
    "wonArr": 1635,
    "projectedArr": 979,
    "paybackDays": 9
  }
}

Outside benchmark: the record’s agent-profile-accuracy range, from a sales-research firm’s test of agent-built Prospect profiles, finds a share of them wrong or thin, which is why each identity is checked off LinkedIn before it reaches your tray.

Before it · After it. Before it: account-visits, moment-outreach and founder-voice feed it Prospects with a reason. After it: positive replies go to the AE, dated not-now replies to lead-nurture, and wide committees to buying-committee.

ExampleCopy Anchor Link

Leaseline ran it from 2026-08-24 to 2026-10-19 (56 days): 589 eligible Prospects assigned, 59 held back, 611 requests queued and 588 sent by Dana, and 214 Messages. Read every captured thread at ?threads=all; three follow the tables.

Dana → Nico Park, LinkedIn, Sep 26 · Nico, congrats on the Ashby Residential move. Your post says renewals across 4 owners come first; that is all we work on. Happy to connect.¹

Accepted Sep 27. Dana, Sep 28 · Thanks for connecting. When the 4 owners renew, does each get their own notice batch, or one for all?²

Nico, Oct 8, 10:05 · “Sure, show me how the owner batches work.” To the AE; Priya booked Tue 15:00, and the Brief reached her at 10:06.

- Saw your team checking out our pricing this week; happy to help.
+ Congrats on the third owner group you announced in September; renewals get busy at that size. Happy to connect.

Nico Park, 2026-10-08 10:05 · replied yes. The agent chose To the AE, stopped the Sequence and sent the Brief to Priya, due 11:05. · Priya, 10:31 · claimed it with POST /{namespace}/tasks/{task}/claim and booked Tue 15:00 Central; the Meeting was held Oct 13. The Brief is in When it hands to you (task_491).

¹ 280 characters or fewer, one announced reason, no link and no ask beyond connecting. ² 80 words or fewer and one question; the calendar link waits for a yes.

Your settingsCopy Anchor Link

---
holdout: 0.1        # 1 eligible Prospect in 10 gets no LinkedIn touch for 60 days
slots: 80            # requests a week, at most 16 a day
moments: 60          # of the 80, for announced moments
---
Sitting at 08:30 each business day. Never touch my login.

$ npx startup-builder show plays/linkedin-outbound
holdout 0.1 · 80 slots a week, 60 for announced moments · 08:30 sitting     your file  plays/linkedin-outbound.mdx:2,3,4,6 (Ask 2026-08-24; line 4 by change_32, 2026-09-21)
family demand · worker role:prospector, owns never · chooses 6 (4 rule, 2 read) · sequences linkedin-request, linkedin-after-accept · every send by your hand · checks owned-by-a-person, fact-check, watched-event, session-gate, pending-ceiling · stops 8 · placements linkedin    catalog  play:linkedin-outbound@1 (Not live yet, gaps #5)

Every key from the catalogCopy Anchor Link

Compiled, not written: edit the Play record linkedin-outbound and its Leaseline run, then regenerate. Every step runs from a sentence or a line of code. In your words: the CRM words you know, and where each lives here.