Paid social

# Not live yet (gaps #2)
curl -X POST "https://api.sb/leaseline.app/campaigns?mode=try" \
  -H "Authorization: Bearer $STARTUP_BUILDER_API_KEY" \
  -H "Content-Type: application/json" \
  -d '{"play":"paid-social"}'

 1import { $ } from 'startup-builder'
 2
 3return await $.Campaign.create({ play: 'paid-social' }, { mode: 'try' })   // dry run on the day-0 Startup, 2026-08-24 · Not live yet, gaps #2

npx startup-builder do Campaign.create --json '{"play":"paid-social"}' --try   # Not live yet (gaps #2)

{
  "name": "do",
  "arguments": {
    "code": "return await $.Campaign.create({ play: 'paid-social' }, { mode: 'try' })   // dry run on the day-0 Startup, 2026-08-24 · Not live yet, gaps #2",
    "mode": "try"
  }
}

 1{
 2  "type": "https://startupbuilder.dev/errors/refused",
 3  "title": "Refused",
 4  "status": 422,
 5  "detail": "paid-social can’t start yet: 1 check fails and 1 warns.",
 6  "checks": [
 7    {
 8      "check": "use-when",
 9      "status": "pass",
10      "observed": "$1,000 a month; Pro’s margin $29 a month, $347 a year",
11      "doc": "/plays/paid-social#check-use-when",
12      "fix": "Nothing to do: it needs $600 a month and a known margin.",
13      "then": "Metric.query"
14    },
15  …

curl "https://api.sb/leaseline.app/events?where=name%20in%20(%22Experiment.started%22%2C%20%22Metric.watched%22%2C%20%22Experiment.matured%22%2C%20%22Monitor.checked%22%2C%20%22Ad.rejected%22%2C%20%22Experiment.concluded%22%2C%20%22Conversation.closed%22%2C%20%22Audience.refreshed%22%2C%20%22Invoice.collected%22%2C%20%22Organization.announced%22%2C%20%22Offer.repriced%22)&limit=1" \
  -H "Authorization: Bearer $STARTUP_BUILDER_API_KEY"

# Not live yet (gaps #7)
curl -X POST "https://api.sb/leaseline.app/triggers/fire?mode=try" \
  -H "Authorization: Bearer $STARTUP_BUILDER_API_KEY" \
  -H "Content-Type: application/json" \
  -d '{"like":"event_1410"}'

# Not live yet (gaps #7)
curl "https://api.sb/leaseline.app/decisions?where=on%20%3D%20%22experiment_9%22" \
  -H "Authorization: Bearer $STARTUP_BUILDER_API_KEY"

# Not live yet (gaps #7)
curl "https://api.sb/leaseline.app/actions?where=on%20%3D%20%22experiment_9%22" \
  -H "Authorization: Bearer $STARTUP_BUILDER_API_KEY"

 1import { $ } from 'startup-builder'
 2
 3const { events: [last] } = await $.Event.list({ where: 'name in ("Experiment.started", "Metric.watched", "Experiment.matured", "Monitor.checked", "Ad.rejected", "Experiment.concluded", "Conversation.closed", "Audience.refreshed", "Invoice.collected", "Organization.announced", "Offer.repriced")', limit: 1 })   // { play } compiled to this Play’s Trigger Events
 4const { subject } = await $.Trigger.fire({ like: last.$id }, { mode: 'try' })   // the same Event again, in try mode · Not live yet, gaps #7
 5const { decisions: [decision] } = await $.Decision.list({ where: `on = "${subject}"` })   // what it chose, and why · Not live yet, gaps #7
 6const { actions } = await $.Action.list({ where: `on = "${subject}"` })   // what it did, with its checks · Not live yet, gaps #7
 7return { decision, actions }

npx startup-builder do Event.list --json '{"where":"name in (\"Experiment.started\", \"Metric.watched\", \"Experiment.matured\", \"Monitor.checked\", \"Ad.rejected\", \"Experiment.concluded\", \"Conversation.closed\", \"Audience.refreshed\", \"Invoice.collected\", \"Organization.announced\", \"Offer.repriced\")","limit":1}'
npx startup-builder do Trigger.fire --json '{"like":"event_1410"}' --try   # Not live yet (gaps #7)
npx startup-builder do Decision.list --json '{"where":"on = \"experiment_9\""}'   # Not live yet (gaps #7)
npx startup-builder do Action.list --json '{"where":"on = \"experiment_9\""}'   # Not live yet (gaps #7)

{
  "name": "do",
  "arguments": {
    "code": "const { events: [last] } = await $.Event.list({ where: 'name in (\"Experiment.started\", \"Metric.watched\", \"Experiment.matured\", \"Monitor.checked\", \"Ad.rejected\", \"Experiment.concluded\", \"Conversation.closed\", \"Audience.refreshed\", \"Invoice.collected\", \"Organization.announced\", \"Offer.repriced\")', limit: 1 })   // { play } compiled to this Play’s Trigger Events\nconst { subject } = await $.Trigger.fire({ like: last.$id }, { mode: 'try' })   // the same Event again, in try mode · Not live yet, gaps #7\nconst { decisions: [decision] } = await $.Decision.list({ where: `on = \"${subject}\"` })   // what it chose, and why · Not live yet, gaps #7\nconst { actions } = await $.Action.list({ where: `on = \"${subject}\"` })   // what it did, with its checks · Not live yet, gaps #7\nreturn { decision, actions }",
    "mode": "try"
  }
}

 1{
 2  "decision": {
 3    "$id": "https://api.sb/leaseline.app/decisions/decision_589",
 4    "$type": "Decision",
 5    "choice": "judge-the-concepts",
 6    "reason": "batch 4 reached 54 trial starts in 7 days; concepts 3 and 8 beat the batch’s cost per trial by 40 % or more, and 7 concepts spent 3 times the target with none",
 7    "stakes": "low",
 8    "options": [
 9      "refresh-the-concepts",
10      "judge-the-concepts",
11      "reset-the-drift",
12      "carry-an-angle",
13      "take-the-next-step",
14      "not-now"
15  …

action_2 pauses the 7 losers through the proxy within 15 minutes, which you can stop. action_3 drafts 3 new concepts for the bottom quarter, paused until you approve them; no budget moves.

≈ +$1,150 ARR a month at $1,000 spend

Worth

2 h week 1, then 40 min a week

Your time

$600 a month at least; $1,000 here

Spend

Day 5: first trial from a paid Visit

First signal

$600+ a month on one Venue, a known margin

Use it when

Under $600 a month: organic-social · no angle has won: positioning-tournament

Not yet when

Worth’s formula: about +16.7 incremental ICP Visits per $100 (your switchback, ■■□□ Early sign) × $1,000 a month = 167 Visits × 0.02 Visits to paid × $347 Pro ARR ≈ +$1,159. Under First signal: An 8-week switchback of alternating weeks tells a +10 lift per $100 at $1,000 a month; each scale step waits for a 28-day holdout read.

Start it this weekCopy Anchor Link

npx startup-builder add play paid-social   # 1 · writes plays/paid-social.mdx (Not live yet, gaps #5)

# 2 · dry run; below, its 422 on 2026-08-24
curl -X POST "https://api.sb/leaseline.app/campaigns?mode=try" \
  -H "Authorization: Bearer $STARTUP_BUILDER_API_KEY" \
  -H "Content-Type: application/json" \
  -d '{"play":"paid-social"}'

# 3 · keep it: every concept waits for your OK
curl -X POST https://api.sb/leaseline.app/campaigns \
  -H "Authorization: Bearer $STARTUP_BUILDER_API_KEY" \
  -H "Content-Type: application/json" \
  -d '{"play":"paid-social"}'

# the monthly Limit
curl -X POST https://api.sb/leaseline.app/limits \
  -H "Authorization: Bearer $STARTUP_BUILDER_API_KEY" \
  -H "Content-Type: application/json" \
  -d '{"name":"paid-social-month","amount":1000,"period":"month"}'

# off: every Campaign pauses through the proxy, and write scope is revoked
curl -X PATCH https://api.sb/leaseline.app/campaigns/paid-social \
  -H "Authorization: Bearer $STARTUP_BUILDER_API_KEY" \
  -H "Content-Type: application/json" \
  -d '{"endsAt":"now"}'

{
  "type": "https://startupbuilder.dev/errors/refused",
  "title": "Refused",
  "status": 422,
  "detail": "paid-social can’t start yet: 1 check fails and 1 warns.",
  "checks": [
    {
      "check": "use-when",
      "status": "pass",
      "observed": "$1,000 a month; Pro’s margin $29 a month, $347 a year",
      "doc": "/plays/paid-social#check-use-when",
      "fix": "Nothing to do: it needs $600 a month and a known margin.",
      "then": "Metric.query"
    },
    {
      "check": "baseline",
      "status": "warn",
      "observed": "0 weeks of paid spend: no switchback yet",
      "doc": "/plays/paid-social#check-baseline",
      "fix": "n 0: the switchback’s off-weeks become the baseline in 8 weeks.",
      "then": "Metric.query"
    },
    {
      "check": "billing-connected",
      "status": "fail",
      "doc": "/plays/paid-social#check-billing-connected",
      "fix": "Connect Stripe, so every gate reads first sales from your own records.",
      "then": "Integration.connect"
    },
    {
      "check": "fact-check",
      "status": "pass",
      "observed": "the claims source holds 9 claims",
      "doc": "/plays/paid-social#check-fact-check",
      "fix": "Nothing to do: every concept line must cite one of the 9.",
      "then": "Content.draft"
    },
    {
      "check": "role-unstaffed",
      "status": "pass",
      "observed": "every approval comes to you",
      "doc": "/plays/paid-social#check-role-unstaffed",
      "fix": "Nothing to do: a founder-only Startup approves every concept.",
      "then": "Role.staff"
    }
  ]
}

Media spend is $1,000 a month under its Limit; renders cost about $1.40 a concept under the render Limit, and the agent about $0.60 a day (Worker cost). That comes to about $1,035 a month at 12 concepts every 21 days.

When it startsCopy Anchor Link

{
  "$id": "https://api.sb/leaseline.app/events/event_1410",
  "$type": "Event",
  "name": "Experiment.matured",
  "at": "2026-10-19T07:12:44Z",
  "seq": 1410,
  "data": {
    "experiment": {
      "$id": "https://api.sb/leaseline.app/experiments/experiment_9",
      "venue": "linkedin",
      "batch": 4,
      "concepts": 12
    },
    "events": {
      "kind": "trial-start",
      "count": 54,
      "days": 7
    }
  }
}

npx startup-builder trigger Experiment.matured --like event_1410   # replays the delivery in test; the proxy writes nothing live
npx startup-builder clock advance --by 15m   # pauses the 7 losers (action_2) unless you stop it
npx startup-builder listen Invoice.collected --forward-to http://localhost:3000/hook

Who runs itCopy Anchor Link

Marketing Lead · your agent (role:marketing-lead, worker_6) holds the Key Result and writes to the ads Venues only through the fenced proxy, which creates every Ad paused. You (Dana Okafor, person, worker_1) approve every concept, every carried angle and every spend step. Your number links to Did it work.

What it reads · What it may call. It reads trial starts, first sales from Stripe, spend and the approved sources, never click-through rate or the Venue’s own return on ad spend. Watched behavior never appears in Ad text, and tracking is added by the proxy at publish. Its tools are POST /{namespace}/content/draft, POST /{namespace}/ads, POST /{namespace}/approvals, POST /{namespace}/experiments/{experiment}/conclude, PATCH /{namespace}/ads/{id}, POST /{namespace}/limits/{limit}/raise, POST /{namespace}/experiments/{experiment}/start, and any other call becomes an Approval under the Role’s Mandate.

You hold the Marketing Lead Key Result: 15 incremental ICP Visits per $100 by 2026-12-31. ← worker, metric
On each verdict, refresh, drift or holdout, choose one option and say why.       ← triggers, chooses
12 distinct concepts a batch, a quarter of them exploration.                     ← your file, line 5
No testimonial a real Customer didn’t give; no synthetic person speaks as a Customer. ← copyRules 3–4
Label every realistic synthetic person, voice or scene.                          ← copyRules 5
No spend step without a winning holdout read, an angle that won twice, and Dana’s OK. ← Scale gate, chooses.take-the-next-step

The slow loop, as a Change. decision_405 (2026-09-21, weekly) read batches 1 and 2: 3 of 5 winners were product-screen concepts and 0 of 6 were stock-photo concepts. change_30 made at least half of each batch product-screen concepts (your file, line 6), and Dana merged it with POST /{namespace}/changes/{change}/merge. Replayed on past batches, POST /{namespace}/changes/{change}/review put winner share at 25 %; batch 4 read back at 17 % (2 of 12), n 12 concepts, ■□□□ Too early to tell (Example, day 56).

Bring your own agent (folded) starts at It does it, you can stop it when it matches or beats the seated agent on the eval suite, and at You approve each one when it does not; it still writes only through the proxy.

npx startup-builder eval --scenario paid-social-12 --agent "claude -p" --seat marketing-lead   # seated: 17 % winner share, 0 Checks failed sent · yours: 8 %, 1 unlabeled render → You approve each one

What it can do nextCopy Anchor Link

When it hands to youCopy Anchor Link

Every concept batch, carried angle, spend step and unanswerable comment comes to you: the Marketing Lead Role has no person, and spend is never the agent’s call. One Brief, as captured, then the Approval (brief, draft and checks are Not live yet, gaps #7).

[
  {
    "$id": "https://api.sb/leaseline.app/tasks/task_469",
    "$type": "Task",
    "assignee": "worker_1",
    "due": "2026-10-21T17:00:00Z",
    "on": "experiment_8",
    "brief": {
      "what": "the 8-week switchback",
      "read": "+16.7 incremental ICP Visits per $100 [+3.2, +30.2], breakeven 12",
      "chose": "take-the-next-step",
      "why": "above breakeven; the renewal-timing angle won on LinkedIn organic and in batch 3",
      "step": "raise the Limit to $1,500 a month",
      "never": [
        "a raise without your OK"
      ]
    }
  },
  {
    "$id": "https://api.sb/leaseline.app/approvals/approval_99",
    "$type": "Approval",
    "verdict": null,
    "deadline": "2026-10-21T17:00:00Z",
    "draft": "3 concepts, paused: “Renewal notices, 60 days out, per owner” (product screen, 15 s)…",
    "route": "refresh-the-concepts",
    "checks": [
      {
        "check": "fact-check",
        "status": "pass"
      },
      {
        "check": "synthetic-media",
        "status": "pass"
      }
    ]
  }
]

You answer with POST /{namespace}/approvals/{approval}/approve or POST /{namespace}/approvals/{approval}/refuse, or POST /{namespace}/tasks/{task}/claim (Take this one) and POST /{namespace}/tasks/{task}/return with a reason, each a one-call window. An unapproved concept never goes live, and an unanswered spend step never happens; live Ads keep running at the current Limit.

On time: you, 5 of 5 concept batches approved within 2 days, median 5 h, n 5, ■■□□ Early sign beside Other Startups’ 90 % on time; the spend step of Oct 19 waits for you. Your queue: counted by kind: one concept batch every 21 days, about 1 carried angle a fortnight, and a spend step at each holdout read.

The fixed line: POST /{namespace}/deals/{deal}/assign sets owner to the receiving person, the agent is never a Deal’s owner, and Meetings land on the owner’s calendar under the owner’s name.

When it won’t sendCopy Anchor Link

The captured refusal, then the Stop that fired as a Campaign.paused reason (Not live yet, gaps #2); the rewrite that went live is the batch 2 concept in Example.

{
  "type": "https://startupbuilder.dev/errors/refused",
  "title": "Refused",
  "status": 422,
  "detail": "Concept 7 of batch 2 was not created: a synthetic person speaks as a Customer.",
  "checks": [
    {
      "check": "synthetic-media",
      "status": "fail",
      "doc": "/plays/paid-social#check-synthetic-media",
      "fix": "Use a real Customer’s words with their yes, or show the product instead.",
      "then": "Content.draft"
    },
    {
      "check": "fact-check",
      "status": "pass"
    }
  ]
}

[
  {
    "reason": {
      "limit": "comment",
      "observed": "3 comments calling one Ad AI-made",
      "bound": "3",
      "window": "1 Ad, Oct 4"
    },
    "doc": "/plays/paid-social#stop-comment",
    "task": "task_444"
  }
]

Did it workCopy Anchor Link

Weeks were assigned at random, ads on or off (rule o: an 8-week switchback, 4 weeks a half, since Leaseline targets under 10 regions on LinkedIn); both halves are read from that assignment. Each figure’s call is POST /{namespace}/metrics/query by node and by arm; the parent field and every node above the leaf are Not live yet (gaps #4).

{
  "$id": "decisions/decision_589",
  "$type": "Decision",
  "choice": "judge-the-concepts",
  "reason": "batch 4 reached 54 trial starts in 7 days; concepts 3 and 8 beat the batch’s cost per trial by 40 % or more, and 7 concepts spent 3 times the target with none",
  "stakes": "low",
  "options": [
    "refresh-the-concepts",
    "judge-the-concepts",
    "reset-the-drift",
    "carry-an-angle",
    "take-the-next-step",
    "not-now"
  ],
  "by": "worker_6",
  "on": "experiment_9",
  "expected": "cost per trial start down 20 % over the next 7 days",
  "reopensWhen": "cost per trial start not down 20 % at the next Experiment.matured on experiment_9"
}

The leaf counts ICP Visits in ads-on weeks minus ads-off weeks, for each $100 spent, over the 8-week switchback; a 28-day holdout comes before any raise and repeats every 90 days at steady spend.

How it moves it: 12 distinct concepts a batch reached people who fit your List, and 21 losers stopped spending after a median 6 days (social-icp-visits-per-100 by concept).

Guardrails: treated against held back: cost per first sale, $372 against a $347 margin, 14-day, under 5 first sales so the payback gate waits; and trials to paid, 5 of 19 against 2 of 7.

{
  "$id": "https://api.sb/leaseline.app/campaigns/paid-social",
  "$type": "Campaign",
  "play": "play:paid-social@1",
  "path": [
    "social-icp-visits-per-100",
    "icp-reached",
    "new-arr",
    "net-new-arr",
    "arr"
  ],
  "experiment": {
    "metric": "social-icp-visits-per-100",
    "unit": "per-100-usd",
    "heldBack": 4,
    "decision": null
  },
  "readout": {
    "value": 16.7,
    "n": 8,
    "maturing": 0,
    "interval": [
      3.2,
      30.2
    ],
    "readability": "B",
    "basis": "alternating-weeks",
    "pooled": false
  },
  "ledger": {
    "spend": 1860,
    "workerCost": 34,
    "hours": 6.8,
    "pipelineArr": 0,
    "wonArr": 1735,
    "projectedArr": 1159,
    "paybackDays": 390
  }
}

Outside benchmark: 5 % to 8 % of paid social concepts become winners (a creative-analytics vendor’s 2026 creative benchmark).

Before it · After it. Before it: positioning-tournament, organic-social and promote-winners hand it angles that already won. After it: lead forms start instant-response, retargeting hears the Visitors who left, and month-3 keepers refresh the list it looks like.

ExampleCopy Anchor Link

Leaseline ran it from 2026-08-24 to 2026-10-19 (56 days): 4 ads-on weeks, $1,860 spent, 4 concept batches of 12, 48 concepts in all, 41 approved and 8 winners. Read every captured thread at ?threads=all; three follow the tables.

Batch 3, concept 4, LinkedIn, Sep 29 · a 15-second product screen: Renewal notices, 60 days out, per owner · Pro from $29 a month.¹

The click · Owen Hale’s colleague at a 90-unit firm landed on the renewals Page on Oct 2, started a trial at 11:40 and paid on Pro on Oct 14; Stripe recorded the first sale, and the conversion reached the Venue the next morning.²

- A smiling “property manager” on camera: “Leaseline saved my renewals.”
+ The renewal screen, then Rosa Lin’s words with her yes: “Every owner got the notice 60 days out.”

A comment on batch 4’s Facebook Ad, 2026-10-12 09:30 · “Does it work for HOAs in Canada?” · Leaseline (agent), 09:31 · *Dana, our founder, answers this here by tomorrow 09:30.*³ The Brief went to Dana (task_458); she replied at 16:15 the same day: yes for HOAs, and Canada from January.

¹ The Price equals Pro’s live Price, and every line cites a claim. ² Every gate counts the sale from Stripe, never the Venue’s own return. ³ The routed line, compiled from the Role’s Settings.

Your settingsCopy Anchor Link

---
limit: 1000       # dollars a month
venues: [linkedin, facebook]
---
12 distinct concepts a batch, every 21 days, a quarter of them exploration.
At least half of each batch shows the product on screen.
No raise without a holdout read, an angle that won twice, and my OK.

$ npx startup-builder show plays/paid-social
limit $1,000 a month · venues linkedin, facebook · 12 concepts every 21 days · half product-screen · raises to you     your file  plays/paid-social.mdx:2,3,5,6,7 (Ask 2026-08-24; line 6 by change_30, 2026-09-21)
family ads · worker role:marketing-lead, owns never · chooses 6 (3 rule, 3 read) · approval every-send · checks fact-check, synthetic-media, scale-gate, holdout-floor · stops 15 · placements linkedin, facebook through the write proxy    catalog  play:paid-social@1 (Not live yet, gaps #5)

Every key from the catalogCopy Anchor Link

Compiled, not written: edit the Play record paid-social and its Leaseline run, then regenerate. Every step runs from a sentence or a line of code. In your words: the CRM words you know, and where each lives here.